Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $6.4B
Lamb Weston Holdings
LW · US
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 15, 2026, revised from $31.15 to $47.07 (+51.1%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +13.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($26.20 to $102.61). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $38.14 – $107.63 · fair‑value band $26.20 – $102.61 · the $52.27 price screens above the $47.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) currently trades at $52.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $47.07, implying the stock looks roughly 10.0% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Lamb Weston Holdings generated revenue of $6.5B at a net margin of 4.6%. Revenue grew 2.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.4%. Net debt stands at $4.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $26.20 (bear case) to $102.61 (bull case); at $52.27, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -3% fair-value upside, at -10%, LW screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($43.98) versus Growth DCF ($4.36). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 53
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. engages in the production, distribution, and marketing of frozen potato products in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally. It offers frozen potatoes, commercial ingredients, and appetizers under the Lamb Weston brand, as well as under various customer labels.
Full company description
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. engages in the production, distribution, and marketing of frozen potato products in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally. It offers frozen potatoes, commercial ingredients, and appetizers under the Lamb Weston brand, as well as under various customer labels. The company also provides its products under its owned or licensed brands, such as Grown in Idaho and Alexia, and other licensed brands, as well as under retailers' own brands. It sells its products through a network of internal sales personnel and independent brokers, agents, and distributors to quick service and full-service restaurants and chains, wholesale, grocery, mass merchants, club retailers, and specialty retailers, as well as foodservice distributors and institutions, including businesses, educational institutions, independent restaurants, regional chain restaurants, and convenience stores. Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 1950 and is headquartered in Eagle, Idaho.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Lamb Weston Holdings reported revenue of $6.5B in FY2025 versus $3.7B in FY2021, a compound +15.1%/yr. Reported net income was $357M in FY2025, compounding +3.0%/yr from FY2021.
Watch LW: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Lamb Weston (LW): Buy, Sell, or Hold Post Q2 Earnings?
- Don't Overlook Lamb Weston (LW) International Revenue Trends While Assessing the Stock
- Lamb Weston (LW) Stock Looks Fully Priced Following Its 45% Fall
- Lamb Weston (LW) Lifts Earnings Outlook Despite Middle East Disruptions
Peer Group
Packaged Foods · 653 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 86/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND | ₹1,427 | ₹362.37 | -75% |
| Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA | ₹5,413 | ₹1,870 | -65% |
| Tata Consumer Products Limited TATACONSUM | ₹1,089 | ₹327.27 | -70% |
| PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP | 6,650 IDR | 15,757 IDR | +137% |
| Samyang Foods Co 003230 | 1,139,000 KRW | 1,010,543 KRW | -11% |
| Patanjali Foods Limited PATANJALI | ₹413.80 | ₹157.04 | -62% |
| Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company VNM | 58,500 VND | 68,259 VND | +17% |
| PT Mayora Indah Tbk, MYOR | 1,750 IDR | 2,699 IDR | +54% |
| PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk CMRY | 4,490 IDR | 4,355 IDR | -3% |
| Nongshim Co 004370 | 348,500 KRW | 530,619 KRW | +52% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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