Match Group, Inc. (M1TC34) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Match Group, Inc. BRL 8.74, price BRL 10.21, upside -14.4%, quality 85 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$6.79 – R$45.53 · fair‑value band R$6.00 – R$12.55 · the R$10.21 price screens above the R$8.74 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Match Group, Inc. provides digital technologies in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Tinder, Hinge, Evergreen and Emerging, and Match Group Asia.
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Match Group, Inc. provides digital technologies in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Tinder, Hinge, Evergreen and Emerging, and Match Group Asia. The company's portfolio of brands includes Tinder, Hinge, Match, Meetic, OkCupid, Pairs, Plenty Of Fish, Azar, BLK, and other brands, built to increase users' likelihood of connecting with others. It provides tailored services to meet the various preferences of its users. Match Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1986 and is based in Dallas, Texas.
Stock analysis
Match Group, Inc. (M1TC34) currently trades at R$10.21, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$8.74, 14.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of R$11.86 per share, and 13 of the 22 models we run sit above the R$10.21 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at R$2.57, and 9 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: R$6.00 (bear) to R$12.55 (bull), the price of R$10.21 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 85/100 (high quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Match Group, Inc. reported revenue of $3.5B in FY2025 versus $3.0B in FY2021, a compound +4.0%/yr. Reported net income was $613M in FY2025, compounding +21.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$42.3B (≈ $8.1B) · P/E ratio 15.0 · P/S ratio 2.64 · EPS (TTM) R$0.6800 · Dividend yield 7.5% · Net margin 17.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.6% · Operating margin 27.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −14%, M1TC34 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$6.00Fair Value R$8.74Bull R$12.55
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.69/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.0%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+29.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+21.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.5%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.30% → 25%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Content & Information · 134 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/9 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score85 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+11.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets15.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)18.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)27.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)7.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Content & Information median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)15.0× · Cheaper than median
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
PEG0.32× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)48· sector 46
FUTURE (revenue growth)20· sector 31
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 18
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 39
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Match Group, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/M1TC34
Frequently asked questions
Is Match Group, Inc. (M1TC34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$8.74 versus a price of R$10.21, about −14% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of M1TC34?
Our model-based fair value for Match Group, Inc. is R$8.74 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$10.21.
What is the quality score of M1TC34?
Match Group, Inc. has a Quality Score of 85/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Match Group, Inc. (M1TC34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$8.74 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$6.00, optimistic scenario R$12.55. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Match Group, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$8.74, about −14% upside versus a price of R$10.21 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$6.00, optimistic scenario R$12.55. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Match Group, Inc. (M1TC34)?
Match Group, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Match Group, Inc. pay a dividend?
Match Group, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.54% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Match Group, Inc. (M1TC34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Match Group, Inc. it is R$8.74 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R$10.21. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Match Group, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, M1TC34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$10.21, fair value R$8.74, a gap of about −14% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of M1TC34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$10.21); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$8.74). For Match Group, Inc. the two are R$1.47 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Match Group, Inc. worth?
The market values Match Group, Inc. at about R$42.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R$10.21; our models calculate a fair value of R$8.74 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about M1TC34?
Our models span a range for Match Group, Inc.: cautious scenario R$6.00, base R$8.74, optimistic R$12.55 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R$10.21). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of M1TC34?
Match Group, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$8.74 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.3.
What is the PEG ratio of M1TC34?
The PEG ratio of Match Group, Inc. is 0.32 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Match Group, Inc. (M1TC34)?
Balance-sheet figures for Match Group, Inc. (as of Sep 24, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 85/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is M1TC34 from its 52-week high?
Match Group, Inc. trades at R$10.21, about 9% below its 52-week high of R$11.20 and 33% above the low of R$7.67 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$8.74 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Match Group, Inc.?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Alphabet Inc, Meta Platforms, Inc, Tencent Holdings, Spotify Technology S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Match Group, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R$10.21, calculated fair value R$8.74 (−14%), Quality Score 85/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of M1TC34 calculated?
We run Match Group, Inc. through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$8.74, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Match Group, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Match Group, Inc. (M1TC34)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was R$10.21. Our model-based fair value is R$8.74, about −14% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Match Group, Inc. right now?
A fairly wide model range (R$6.00 to R$12.55) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Match Group, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Match Group, Inc. (M1TC34)?
The market capitalisation of Match Group, Inc. is R$42.3B (≈ $8.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Match Group, Inc. (M1TC34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Match Group, Inc. is 2.64 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Match Group, Inc. (M1TC34)?
Earnings per share at Match Group, Inc. are R$0.6800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Match Group, Inc. (M1TC34)?
The dividend yield of Match Group, Inc. is 7.5% (payout 113%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Match Group, Inc. (M1TC34)?
The net margin of Match Group, Inc. is 17.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Match Group, Inc. (M1TC34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Match Group, Inc. is 17.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Match Group, Inc. (M1TC34)?
The operating margin of Match Group, Inc. is 27.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Match Group, Inc. (M1TC34)?
Revenue at Match Group, Inc. is growing +3.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Match Group, Inc. (M1TC34)?
Earnings per share at Match Group, Inc. are growing +52.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Match Group, Inc. (M1TC34) generate?
The free cash flow of Match Group, Inc. is $1.0B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Match Group, Inc. (M1TC34) carry?
The net debt of Match Group, Inc. is $2.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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