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Macfarlane Group (MACF) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · GB · Market cap 105M GBX

MG Macfarlane Group MACF · LSE
Price£0.6780
Fair Value£0.8500
Upside+25.4%
Quality57/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 2.1% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
5.61% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (9/14)
Narrow moat 34/100
Evidence: High Range £0.5400 – £1.07 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Share price +16.1% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 25% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (£0.5400 to £1.07) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

£1.18 £0.5205 Fair Value £0.8500 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range £0.5205 – £1.18 · fair‑value band £0.5400 – £1.07 · the £0.6780 price screens below the £0.8500 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

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Analysis

Macfarlane Group (MACF) currently trades at £0.6780, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £0.8500, implying the stock looks roughly 25.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Macfarlane Group generated revenue of £301M at a net margin of 2.1%. Revenue grew 9.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.2%. Net debt stands at £75.0M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026

Our scenario range runs from £0.5400 (bear case) to £1.07 (bull case); at £0.6780, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at 25%, MACF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF £1.14 £1.44 £1.78 80
Residual Income £0.5500 £0.5500 £0.4800 76
Rev-Margin DCF £0.9300 £1.30 £1.71 74
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF £1.13 £1.47 £1.88 38
Owner Earnings £1.11 £1.44 £1.84 31
5Y Revenue Exit £0.9300 £1.28 £1.71 39
5Y EBITDA Exit £1.48 £2.27 £3.16 41
5Y P/E Exit £0.8700 £1.16 £1.45 38
10Y Revenue Exit £1.00 £1.30 £1.66 36
10Y EBITDA Exit £1.31 £1.87 £2.58 37
10Y P/E Exit £0.9800 £1.23 £1.50 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd £0.2800 £0.7200 £0.9400 54
PEG = 1.0 £0.1400 £0.1900 £0.2500 46
EPV £0.5900 £0.6500 £0.6900 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM £0.2600 £0.4300 £0.5700 70
DDM Multi-Stage £0.2600 £0.3700 £0.4600 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple £0.6400 £0.8500 £1.07 63
P/S Multiple £0.5200 £0.6900 £0.8600 58
P/B Multiple £0.5200 £0.6900 £0.8600 55
EV/EBIT £1.12 £1.46 £1.80 53
EV/EBITDA £2.01 £2.65 £3.29 54
EV/Revenue £0.8200 £1.14 £1.45 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) £0.3900 £0.5200 £0.7800 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF £1.14 £1.44 £1.78 80
Rev-Margin DCF £0.9300 £1.30 £1.71 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income £0.5500 £0.5500 £0.4800 76
ROIC Compounder £0.5900 £0.6500 £0.6900 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E £0.5000 £0.7100 £0.9300 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (£1.30) versus Dividend Discount (£0.3700). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 301M GBX
Revenue growth (YoY) +9.5%
Net margin 2.1%
Return on equity 5.2%
Free cash flow 20.2M GBX FY2025
P/E ratio 17.0
More key figures
Operating margin 3.7%
EPS (TTM) £0.0400
Dividend yield 5.6%
EPS growth (YoY) -68.2%
Net debt 75.0M GBX FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 57/100

Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46

Profitability 47
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 30
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 64
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 47
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 78
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 73
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 39
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 27
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 86
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Macfarlane Group PLC, through its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and distributes protective packaging products to businesses in the United Kingdom and Europe. It operates through Packaging Distribution and Manufacturing Operations segments. The Packaging Distribution segment distributes packaging materials in the United Kingdom, Ireland, and Europe.

Full company description

Macfarlane Group PLC, through its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and distributes protective packaging products to businesses in the United Kingdom and Europe. It operates through Packaging Distribution and Manufacturing Operations segments. The Packaging Distribution segment distributes packaging materials in the United Kingdom, Ireland, and Europe. The Manufacturing Operations segment designs, manufactures, and assembles timber, corrugated, and foam-based packaging materials in the United Kingdom. The company also recovers waste paper and corrugated boards for recycling. In addition, it engages in the supply and distribution of equipment for packaging and specialist packaging materials. The company serves e-commerce retail, logistics, electronics, aerospace, automotive, medical, homeware, general industrial, food, and hospitality sectors. Macfarlane Group PLC was incorporated in 1899 and is headquartered in Glasgow, the United Kingdom.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Macfarlane Group reported revenue of £301M in FY2025 versus £264M in FY2021, a compound +3.3%/yr. Reported net income was £6.3M in FY2025, compounding −15.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 70/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
£301M
Latest YoY
+11.2%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.2%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.4%
Avg. growth/yr (40Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.7%
Revenue +3.3%/yr
FY21 £264M
FY22 £290M
FY23 £281M
FY24 £270M
FY25 £301M
Net income −15.9%/yr
FY21 £12.6M
FY22 £15.6M
FY23 £15.0M
FY24 £15.5M
FY25 £6.3M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +6.7 % p.a.
Revenue per share +3.1 pp

of which total revenue +6.0 pp · buybacks/dilution −2.9 pp

EBIT margin +5.3 pp
Tax rate −0.6 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −1.1 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Macfarlane Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MACF

Peer Group

Packaging & Containers · 272 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 57 · Above median
Fair Value upside +25% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 5% · Below median
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 4% · Below median
Revenue growth 10% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.6% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.00× · Lower than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 17.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.18× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.47× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 7.0× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 6.2× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 67 · sector 9
FUTURE 48 · sector 0
PAST 21 · sector 21
HEALTH 100 · sector 93
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 42

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Packaging & Containers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Stora Enso Oyj STER kr 101.90 kr 126.39 +24%
ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co 002831 ¥29.10 ¥20.88 -28%
SCG Packaging Public Company SCGP 29.00 THB 16.12 THB -44%
AblePrint Technology Co 7734 2,850 TWD 661.69 TWD -77%
PT Fajar Surya Wisesa Tbk, FASW 5,312 IDR 1,194 IDR -78%
Taiwan Hon Chuan Enterprise Co 9939 132.50 TWD 127.06 TWD -4%
Time Technoplast Limited TIMETECHNO ₹206.82 ₹161.42 -22%
EPL Limited 500135 ₹222.25 ₹111.65 -50%
Ton Yi Industrial Corp 9907 15.15 TWD 23.17 TWD +53%
Dongwon Systems Corporation 014820 19,330 KRW 31,473 KRW +63%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Macfarlane Group (MACF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £0.8500 versus a price of £0.6780, about +25% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MACF?
Our model-based fair value for Macfarlane Group is £0.8500 (as of Jul 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is £0.6780.
What is the quality score of MACF?
Macfarlane Group has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Macfarlane Group (MACF)?
Macfarlane Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £301M (latest available figure, as of Jul 19, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of MACF?
The net profit margin of Macfarlane Group is about 2.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 2.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Macfarlane Group pay a dividend?
Macfarlane Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.60% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 19, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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