Macfarlane Group (MACF) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · GB · Market cap 105M GBX
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +16.1% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 25% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (£0.5400 to £1.07) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.5205 – £1.18 · fair‑value band £0.5400 – £1.07 · the £0.6780 price screens below the £0.8500 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Macfarlane Group (MACF) currently trades at £0.6780, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £0.8500, implying the stock looks roughly 25.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Macfarlane Group generated revenue of £301M at a net margin of 2.1%. Revenue grew 9.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.2%. Net debt stands at £75.0M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £0.5400 (bear case) to £1.07 (bull case); at £0.6780, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at 25%, MACF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (£1.30) versus Dividend Discount (£0.3700). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Macfarlane Group PLC, through its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and distributes protective packaging products to businesses in the United Kingdom and Europe. It operates through Packaging Distribution and Manufacturing Operations segments. The Packaging Distribution segment distributes packaging materials in the United Kingdom, Ireland, and Europe.
Full company description
Macfarlane Group PLC, through its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and distributes protective packaging products to businesses in the United Kingdom and Europe. It operates through Packaging Distribution and Manufacturing Operations segments. The Packaging Distribution segment distributes packaging materials in the United Kingdom, Ireland, and Europe. The Manufacturing Operations segment designs, manufactures, and assembles timber, corrugated, and foam-based packaging materials in the United Kingdom. The company also recovers waste paper and corrugated boards for recycling. In addition, it engages in the supply and distribution of equipment for packaging and specialist packaging materials. The company serves e-commerce retail, logistics, electronics, aerospace, automotive, medical, homeware, general industrial, food, and hospitality sectors. Macfarlane Group PLC was incorporated in 1899 and is headquartered in Glasgow, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Macfarlane Group reported revenue of £301M in FY2025 versus £264M in FY2021, a compound +3.3%/yr. Reported net income was £6.3M in FY2025, compounding −15.9%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +6.0 pp · buybacks/dilution −2.9 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Packaging & Containers · 272 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaging & Containers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stora Enso Oyj STER | kr 101.90 | kr 126.39 | +24% |
| ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co 002831 | ¥29.10 | ¥20.88 | -28% |
| SCG Packaging Public Company SCGP | 29.00 THB | 16.12 THB | -44% |
| AblePrint Technology Co 7734 | 2,850 TWD | 661.69 TWD | -77% |
| PT Fajar Surya Wisesa Tbk, FASW | 5,312 IDR | 1,194 IDR | -78% |
| Taiwan Hon Chuan Enterprise Co 9939 | 132.50 TWD | 127.06 TWD | -4% |
| Time Technoplast Limited TIMETECHNO | ₹206.82 | ₹161.42 | -22% |
| EPL Limited 500135 | ₹222.25 | ₹111.65 | -50% |
| Ton Yi Industrial Corp 9907 | 15.15 TWD | 23.17 TWD | +53% |
| Dongwon Systems Corporation 014820 | 19,330 KRW | 31,473 KRW | +63% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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