Macfarlane Group PLC (MACF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Macfarlane Group PLC £0.85, price £0.81, upside +5.2%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.5757 – £1.30 · fair‑value band £0.5400 – £1.07 · the £0.8080 price screens below the £0.8500 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Macfarlane Group PLC, through its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and distributes protective packaging products to businesses in the United Kingdom and Europe. It operates through Packaging Distribution and Manufacturing Operations segments. The Packaging Distribution segment distributes packaging materials in the United Kingdom, Ireland, and Europe.
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Macfarlane Group PLC, through its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and distributes protective packaging products to businesses in the United Kingdom and Europe. It operates through Packaging Distribution and Manufacturing Operations segments. The Packaging Distribution segment distributes packaging materials in the United Kingdom, Ireland, and Europe. The Manufacturing Operations segment designs, manufactures, and assembles timber, corrugated, and foam-based packaging materials in the United Kingdom. The company also recovers waste paper and corrugated boards for recycling. In addition, it engages in the supply and distribution of equipment for packaging and specialist packaging materials. The company serves e-commerce retail, logistics, electronics, aerospace, automotive, medical, homeware, general industrial, food, and hospitality sectors. Macfarlane Group PLC was incorporated in 1899 and is headquartered in Glasgow, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Macfarlane Group PLC (MACF) currently trades at £0.8080, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £0.8500, implying the stock looks roughly 4.9% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of £1.46 per share, and 14 of the 25 models we run sit above the £0.8080 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at £0.3700, and 11 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £0.5400 (bear) to £1.07 (bull), the price of £0.8080 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Macfarlane Group PLC reported revenue of £301M in FY2025 versus £264M in FY2021, a compound +3.3%/yr. Reported net income was £6.3M in FY2025, compounding −15.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 128M GBX · P/E ratio 20.2 · P/S ratio 0.42 · EPS (TTM) £0.0400 · Dividend yield 4.6% · Net margin 2.1% · Return on equity 5.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at 5%, MACF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear £0.5400Fair Value £0.8500Bull £1.07
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.0022 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.70/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.9% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−4.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−9.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−9% vs −1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−5.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.3% a year for the price and +0.5% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 272 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside+5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Below median
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth10% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Macfarlane Group PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MACF
Frequently asked questions
Is Macfarlane Group PLC (MACF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £0.8500 versus a price of £0.8080, about +5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of MACF?
Our model-based fair value for Macfarlane Group PLC is £0.8500 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £0.8080.
What is the quality score of MACF?
Macfarlane Group PLC has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Macfarlane Group PLC (MACF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £0.8500 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario £0.5400, optimistic scenario £1.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Macfarlane Group PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £0.8500, about +5% upside versus a price of £0.8080 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario £0.5400, optimistic scenario £1.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Macfarlane Group PLC (MACF)?
Macfarlane Group PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £301M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Macfarlane Group PLC pay a dividend?
Macfarlane Group PLC currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.58% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Macfarlane Group PLC (MACF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Macfarlane Group PLC would have to grow free cash flow by -5.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MACF use?
Our models discount Macfarlane Group PLC at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.54, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Macfarlane Group PLC that is -5.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Macfarlane Group PLC (MACF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Macfarlane Group PLC grew +7.4 % a year. The price currently implies -5.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Macfarlane Group PLC (MACF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Macfarlane Group PLC (-5.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Macfarlane Group PLC (MACF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.77 %: that much free cash flow Macfarlane Group PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Macfarlane Group PLC (MACF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Macfarlane Group PLC it is £0.8500 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of £0.8080. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Macfarlane Group PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, MACF trades below its calculated fair value: price £0.8080, fair value £0.8500, a gap of about +5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MACF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£0.8080); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£0.8500). For Macfarlane Group PLC the two are £0.0420 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Macfarlane Group PLC worth?
The market values Macfarlane Group PLC at about 128M GBX (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is £0.8080; our models calculate a fair value of £0.8500 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MACF?
Our models span a range for Macfarlane Group PLC: cautious scenario £0.5400, base £0.8500, optimistic £1.07 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price £0.8080). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MACF?
Macfarlane Group PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.2 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £0.8500 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 7.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Macfarlane Group PLC (MACF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Macfarlane Group PLC (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 5.2%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MACF from its 52-week high?
Macfarlane Group PLC trades at £0.8080, about 10% below its 52-week high of £0.8982 and 40% above the low of £0.5757 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £0.8500 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Macfarlane Group PLC?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, International Paper Company, Ball Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Macfarlane Group PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price £0.8080, calculated fair value £0.8500 (+5%), Quality Score 57/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MACF calculated?
We run Macfarlane Group PLC through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £0.8500, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Macfarlane Group PLC currently trades 5 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Macfarlane Group PLC (MACF)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was £0.8080. Our model-based fair value is £0.8500, about +5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Macfarlane Group PLC right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (£0.5400 to £1.07) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Macfarlane Group PLC (MACF) come from?
Earnings per share at Macfarlane Group PLC grew +6.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.1 %, EBIT margin +5.3 %, tax rate −0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Macfarlane Group PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Macfarlane Group PLC (MACF)?
The market capitalisation of Macfarlane Group PLC is 128M GBX. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Macfarlane Group PLC (MACF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Macfarlane Group PLC is 0.42 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Macfarlane Group PLC (MACF)?
Earnings per share at Macfarlane Group PLC are £0.0400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Macfarlane Group PLC (MACF)?
The dividend yield of Macfarlane Group PLC is 4.6% (payout 92.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Macfarlane Group PLC (MACF)?
The net margin of Macfarlane Group PLC is 2.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Macfarlane Group PLC (MACF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Macfarlane Group PLC is 5.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Macfarlane Group PLC (MACF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Macfarlane Group PLC is 8.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Macfarlane Group PLC (MACF)?
The operating margin of Macfarlane Group PLC is 3.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Macfarlane Group PLC (MACF)?
Revenue at Macfarlane Group PLC is growing +9.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Macfarlane Group PLC (MACF)?
Earnings per share at Macfarlane Group PLC are growing −68.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Macfarlane Group PLC (MACF) carry?
The net debt of Macfarlane Group PLC is 75.0M GBX (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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