mBank S.A. (MBAKF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Jun 12, 2026: fair value of mBank S.A. $79.75, price $39.88, upside +100.0%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
44‑month range $39.88 – $39.88 · fair‑value band $60.75 – $130.00 · the $39.88 price screens below the $79.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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mBank S.A. provides various banking and financial services in Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and internationally. The company provides retail, SME, corporate, and investment banking services. It offers banking services, such as personal, savings, currency, investment, and business accounts, as well as various deposits.
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mBank S.A. provides various banking and financial services in Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and internationally. The company provides retail, SME, corporate, and investment banking services. It offers banking services, such as personal, savings, currency, investment, and business accounts, as well as various deposits. It also provides debit and credit cards; cash, car, secured, and corporate and personal loans, as well as mortgages; pension, insurance, and stock exchange products; and transaction and mobile banking services. In addition, the company offers wealth management services, including portfolio management, investment advisory, investment funds, financial dealer, private broker, and other investment services, as well as succession services. Further, it provides currency exchange and hedging transactions, and forex forward services, as well as treasury and non-treasury bonds, and Eurobonds. Additionally, the company offers leasing, factoring, brokerage, payment gateway, and corporate finance services. The company was formerly known as BRE Bank S.A. and changed its name to mBank S.A. in November 2013. The company was incorporated in 1986 and is headquartered in Warsaw, Poland. mBank S.A. is a subsidiary of Commerzbank AG.
Stock analysis
mBank S.A. (MBAKF) currently trades at $39.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $79.75, implying the stock looks roughly 50.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $181.08 per share, and 4 of the 4 models we run sit above the $39.88 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $86.66, and 0 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $60.75 (bear) to $130.00 (bull), the price of $39.88 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
mBank S.A. reported revenue of 17.2B PLN in FY2025 versus 6.3B PLN in FY2021, a compound +28.5%/yr. Reported net income was 3.5B PLN in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.7B · P/S ratio 0.14 · EPS (TTM) $−17.07 · Net margin 20.6% · Return on equity 18.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.7% · Revenue (TTM) 12.0B PLN · Revenue growth (YoY) −1.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at 100%, MBAKF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $60.75Fair Value $79.75Bull $130.00
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+39.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +15.8% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +45.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+45.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.45.4% vs 10.6%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 29%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Approximate: the rate leans on 2025, which sits 212% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−1.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in PLN, Poland: IMF forecast 3.1% a year to 2030, 4.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.2% a year for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1052 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−38.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)18.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets1.4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)29.5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−1.8% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "mBank S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MBAKF
Frequently asked questions
Is mBank S.A. (MBAKF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $79.75 versus the last price from Jun 12, 2026 of $39.88, about +100% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MBAKF?
Our model-based fair value for mBank S.A. is $79.75 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Jun 12, 2026): $39.88.
What is the quality score of MBAKF?
mBank S.A. has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for mBank S.A. (MBAKF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $79.75 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $60.75, optimistic scenario $130.00. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the mBank S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $79.75, about +100% upside versus the last price from Jun 12, 2026 of $39.88 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $60.75, optimistic scenario $130.00. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of mBank S.A. (MBAKF)?
mBank S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 12.0B PLN (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into mBank S.A. (MBAKF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, mBank S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +26.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MBAKF use?
Our models discount mBank S.A. at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.71, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For mBank S.A. that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has mBank S.A. (MBAKF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at mBank S.A. grew +26.2 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of mBank S.A. (MBAKF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into mBank S.A. (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of mBank S.A. (MBAKF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 46.45 %: that much free cash flow mBank S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of mBank S.A. (MBAKF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For mBank S.A. it is $79.75 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $39.88. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is mBank S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, MBAKF trades below its calculated fair value: price $39.88, fair value $79.75, a gap of about +100% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MBAKF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($39.88); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($79.75). For mBank S.A. the two are $39.87 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is mBank S.A. worth?
The market values mBank S.A. at about $1.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $39.88; our models calculate a fair value of $79.75 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MBAKF?
Our models span a range for mBank S.A.: cautious scenario $60.75, base $79.75, optimistic $130.00 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $39.88). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of mBank S.A. (MBAKF)?
Balance-sheet figures for mBank S.A. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 18.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MBAKF from its 52-week high?
mBank S.A. trades at $39.88, at its 52-week high of $39.88 and at the low of $39.88 (as of Jun 12, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $79.75 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to mBank S.A.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is mBank S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $39.88, calculated fair value $79.75 (+100%), Quality Score 56/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MBAKF calculated?
We run mBank S.A. through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $79.75, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. mBank S.A. currently trades 50 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of mBank S.A. (MBAKF)?
The latest price we hold is from Jun 12, 2026 and stands at $39.88. Our model-based fair value is $79.75, about +100% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with mBank S.A. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($60.75). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($60.75 to $130.00) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of mBank S.A. (MBAKF) come from?
Earnings per share at mBank S.A. grew +4.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.7 %, EBIT margin +3.9 %, tax rate −2.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −9.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of mBank S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of mBank S.A. (MBAKF)?
The market capitalisation of mBank S.A. is $1.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of mBank S.A. (MBAKF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of mBank S.A. is 0.14 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of mBank S.A. (MBAKF)?
Earnings per share at mBank S.A. are $−17.07. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of mBank S.A. (MBAKF)?
The net margin of mBank S.A. is 20.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of mBank S.A. (MBAKF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of mBank S.A. is 18.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of mBank S.A. (MBAKF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of mBank S.A. is 1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at mBank S.A. (MBAKF)?
Revenue at mBank S.A. is growing −1.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +28.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at mBank S.A. (MBAKF)?
Earnings per share at mBank S.A. are growing +5.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does mBank S.A. (MBAKF) hold?
mBank S.A. holds more cash than debt, 29.8B PLN net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026