Macmahon Holdings Limited (MCHHF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Macmahon Holdings Limited $0.41, price $0.81, upside -49.4%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0361 – $0.8106 · fair‑value band $0.3100 – $0.5200 · the $0.8100 price screens above the $0.4100 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Macmahon Holdings Limited provides surface mining, underground mining and mining support, and civil infrastructure services to mining companies in Australia and Southeast Asia. It operates in four segments: Surface Mining, Underground Mining, International Mining, and Civil Infrastructure.
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Macmahon Holdings Limited provides surface mining, underground mining and mining support, and civil infrastructure services to mining companies in Australia and Southeast Asia. It operates in four segments: Surface Mining, Underground Mining, International Mining, and Civil Infrastructure. The company offers surface mining services, such as bulk and selective mining, mine planning and analysis, drill and blast, crushing and screening, fixed plant maintenance, water management, equipment operation and maintenance, technology, safety solutions; and underground mining services, including mine development and production, raise and production drilling, cable bolting, shotcreting, remote shaft lining, paste fill, shaft sinking and fit out; and engineering services, including shaft lining and maintenance, ore pass liners, winder refurbishment, conveying, crushing, materials handling, emergency egress systems, pump stations and rising mains, and site workshops and infrastructure. It provides mining support services comprising topsoil and overburden stripping, bulk earthworks, road design and construction, mine infrastructure and services, and train loading facilities; tailings storage facilities, camps and remote village accommodation, bridgeworks, rail and airport infrastructure, balance of plant works for renewable energy projects, including solar, wind, and battery installations; water infrastructure, such as dams, creek diversions, flood levies, and drainage structures; and revegetation, non-process infrastructure, and rehabilitation monitoring and maintenance. In addition, the company offers advisory operational improvement services, which includes operator coaching and industry skills training, cultural change programs, and mental health program. The company was incorporated in 1963 and is headquartered in Perth, Australia.
Stock analysis
Macmahon Holdings Limited (MCHHF) currently trades at $0.8100, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.4100, 49.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $0.8100 per share, and 5 of the 26 models we run sit above the $0.8100 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $0.1000, and 21 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.3100 (bear) to $0.5200 (bull), the price of $0.8100 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Macmahon Holdings Limited reported revenue of A$2.4B in FY2025 versus A$1.4B in FY2021, a compound +15.8%/yr. Reported net income was A$73.9M in FY2025, compounding −1.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.7B · P/E ratio 26.4 · P/S ratio 0.80 · EPS (TTM) $0.0300 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 3.0% · Return on equity 13.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 167% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −49%, MCHHF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.3100Fair Value $0.4100Bull $0.5200
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0110 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.78/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+19.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.9% a year
Revenue growth 36 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+5.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.2.8% vs 10.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in AUD, Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.7% a year for the price and +3.9% for the forecasts.
Compare Macmahon Holdings Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 431 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−42.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)3.6% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)6.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth10.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.41× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
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Is Macmahon Holdings Limited (MCHHF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.4100 versus a price of $0.8100, about −49% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MCHHF?
Our model-based fair value for Macmahon Holdings Limited is $0.4100 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.8100.
What is the quality score of MCHHF?
Macmahon Holdings Limited has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Macmahon Holdings Limited (MCHHF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.4100 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.3100, optimistic scenario $0.5200. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Macmahon Holdings Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.4100, about −49% upside versus a price of $0.8100 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.3100, optimistic scenario $0.5200. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Macmahon Holdings Limited (MCHHF)?
Macmahon Holdings Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$2.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Macmahon Holdings Limited pay a dividend?
Macmahon Holdings Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.35% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Macmahon Holdings Limited (MCHHF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Macmahon Holdings Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +9.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MCHHF use?
Our models discount Macmahon Holdings Limited at 11.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.06, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Macmahon Holdings Limited that is +9.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Macmahon Holdings Limited (MCHHF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Macmahon Holdings Limited grew +12.0 % a year. The price currently implies +9.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Macmahon Holdings Limited (MCHHF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Macmahon Holdings Limited (+9.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Macmahon Holdings Limited (MCHHF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.18 %: that much free cash flow Macmahon Holdings Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Macmahon Holdings Limited (MCHHF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Macmahon Holdings Limited it is $0.4100 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.8100. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Macmahon Holdings Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, MCHHF trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.8100, fair value $0.4100, a gap of about −49% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MCHHF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.8100); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.4100). For Macmahon Holdings Limited the two are $0.4000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Macmahon Holdings Limited worth?
The market values Macmahon Holdings Limited at about $1.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.8100; our models calculate a fair value of $0.4100 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MCHHF?
Our models span a range for Macmahon Holdings Limited: cautious scenario $0.3100, base $0.4100, optimistic $0.5200 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.8100). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MCHHF?
Macmahon Holdings Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $0.4100 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.5, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 5.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Macmahon Holdings Limited (MCHHF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Macmahon Holdings Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 13.3%, debt of 0.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MCHHF from its 52-week high?
Macmahon Holdings Limited trades at $0.8100, at its 52-week high of $0.8106 and 167% above the low of $0.3035 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.4100 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Macmahon Holdings Limited?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Macmahon Holdings Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.8100, calculated fair value $0.4100 (−49%), Quality Score 59/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MCHHF calculated?
We run Macmahon Holdings Limited through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.4100, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Macmahon Holdings Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Macmahon Holdings Limited (MCHHF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.8100. Our model-based fair value is $0.4100, about −49% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Macmahon Holdings Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.5200). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Macmahon Holdings Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Macmahon Holdings Limited (MCHHF)?
The market capitalisation of Macmahon Holdings Limited is $1.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Macmahon Holdings Limited (MCHHF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Macmahon Holdings Limited is 0.80 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Macmahon Holdings Limited (MCHHF)?
Earnings per share at Macmahon Holdings Limited are $0.0300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Macmahon Holdings Limited (MCHHF)?
The dividend yield of Macmahon Holdings Limited is 2.3% (payout 63.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Macmahon Holdings Limited (MCHHF)?
The net margin of Macmahon Holdings Limited is 3.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Macmahon Holdings Limited (MCHHF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Macmahon Holdings Limited is 13.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Macmahon Holdings Limited (MCHHF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Macmahon Holdings Limited is 7.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Macmahon Holdings Limited (MCHHF)?
The operating margin of Macmahon Holdings Limited is 6.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Macmahon Holdings Limited (MCHHF)?
Revenue at Macmahon Holdings Limited is growing +10.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Macmahon Holdings Limited (MCHHF)?
Earnings per share at Macmahon Holdings Limited are growing +59.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Macmahon Holdings Limited (MCHHF) carry?
The net debt of Macmahon Holdings Limited is A$162M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026