Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Mercury NZ Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$4.05 – A$6.18 · fair‑value band A$0.7569 – A$2.18 · the A$5.37 price screens above the A$2.13 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Mercury NZ Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production, trading, and sale of electricity and related activities in New Zealand. The company operates through Generation/Wholesale, Customer, and Other segments.
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Mercury NZ Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production, trading, and sale of electricity and related activities in New Zealand. The company operates through Generation/Wholesale, Customer, and Other segments. It operates 9 hydro generation stations on the Waikato River; 5 wind plants; and 5 geothermal generation stations in the central North Island. The company also sells electricity to residential, commercial, industrial, and spot market customers under the GLOBUG, Trustpower, and Mercury brands. In addition, it provides piped natural gas; broadband and telecommunication products and services; mobile services; and other products. The company was formerly known as Mighty River Power Limited and changed its name to Mercury NZ Limited in July 2016. Mercury NZ Limited was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Auckland, New Zealand.
Stock analysis
Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY) currently trades at A$5.37, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$2.13, implying the stock looks roughly 152.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of A$2.73 per share, and 0 of the 17 models we run sit above the A$5.37 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at A$1.17, and 17 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$0.7569 (bear) to A$2.18 (bull), the price of A$5.37 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Mercury NZ Ltd reported revenue of 3.5B NZD in FY2025 versus 2.0B NZD in FY2021, a compound +14.4%/yr. Reported net income was 1.0M NZD in FY2025, compounding −71.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap A$7.5B (≈ $5.4B) · P/E ratio 107.4 · P/S ratio 0.03 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0500 · Dividend yield 3.9% · Net margin 0.0% · Return on equity 1.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −60%, MCY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (A$0.0100 to A$3.16). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear A$0.7569Fair Value A$2.13Bull A$2.18
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.6%
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−61.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−65.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−66% vs −40%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 6%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
more than +80 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Renewable · 209 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2% · Below median
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)22% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.42× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)107.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.17× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)1.68× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF357.4× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA9.9× · Pricier than median
PEG11.37× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 17
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)7· sector 12
HEALTH (low debt)79· sector 68
DIVIDEND (yield)79· sector 48
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$2.13 versus a price of A$5.37, about −60% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MCY?
Our model-based fair value for Mercury NZ Ltd is A$2.13 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$5.37.
What is the quality score of MCY?
Mercury NZ Ltd has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$2.13 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 18 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.7569, optimistic scenario A$2.18. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mercury NZ Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$2.13, about −60% upside versus a price of A$5.37 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.7569, optimistic scenario A$2.18. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY)?
Mercury NZ Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.4B NZD (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Mercury NZ Ltd pay a dividend?
Mercury NZ Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.93% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mercury NZ Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by more than 80 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.6 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MCY use?
Our models discount Mercury NZ Ltd at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.34, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mercury NZ Ltd that is more than 80 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mercury NZ Ltd grew +14.6 % a year. The price currently implies more than 80 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mercury NZ Ltd (more than 80 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.17 %: that much free cash flow Mercury NZ Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mercury NZ Ltd it is A$2.13 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of A$5.37. It is the blended result of 18 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mercury NZ Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, MCY trades above its calculated fair value: price A$5.37, fair value A$2.13, a gap of about −60% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MCY?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$5.37); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$2.13). For Mercury NZ Ltd the two are A$3.24 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mercury NZ Ltd worth?
The market values Mercury NZ Ltd at about A$7.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is A$5.37; our models calculate a fair value of A$2.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MCY?
Our models span a range for Mercury NZ Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.7569, base A$2.13, optimistic A$2.18 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price A$5.37). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MCY?
Mercury NZ Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 107.4 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$2.13 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 11.4, P/B 1.2, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 9.9.
What is the PEG ratio of MCY?
The PEG ratio of Mercury NZ Ltd is 11.37 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 13, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mercury NZ Ltd (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 1.9%, debt of 0.42 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MCY from its 52-week high?
Mercury NZ Ltd trades at A$5.37, about 13% below its 52-week high of A$6.20 and 7% above the low of A$5.04 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$2.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mercury NZ Ltd?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value China Yangtze Power Co, Ørsted A/S, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc, Adani Green Energy Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mercury NZ Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price A$5.37, calculated fair value A$2.13 (−60%), Quality Score 43/100, from 18 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MCY calculated?
We run Mercury NZ Ltd through 18 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$2.13, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Mercury NZ Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Mercury NZ Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$2.18). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (A$0.7569 to A$2.18). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY) come from?
Earnings per share at Mercury NZ Ltd grew +9.9 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.6 %, EBIT margin −2.0 %, tax rate +2.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Mercury NZ Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY)?
The market capitalisation of Mercury NZ Ltd is A$7.5B (≈ $5.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mercury NZ Ltd is 0.03 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY)?
Earnings per share at Mercury NZ Ltd are A$0.0500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 107.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY)?
The dividend yield of Mercury NZ Ltd is 3.9%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY)?
The net margin of Mercury NZ Ltd is 0.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mercury NZ Ltd is 1.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mercury NZ Ltd is 3.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY)?
The operating margin of Mercury NZ Ltd is 21.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY)?
Revenue at Mercury NZ Ltd is growing −5.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY)?
Earnings per share at Mercury NZ Ltd are growing −41.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY) carry?
The net debt of Mercury NZ Ltd is 2.2B NZD (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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