Meridian Energy Limited (MDDNF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Meridian Energy Limited $1.37, price $3.03, upside -54.7%, quality 37 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.27 – $5.14 · fair‑value band $0.9500 – $1.98 · the $3.03 price screens above the $1.37 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Meridian Energy Limited engages in the generation and retailing of electricity to residential, business, and industrial customers in New Zealand, Australia, and the United Kingdom. The company generates electricity through 7 hydro stations; 8 wind farms; and 100MW battery energy storage system, as well as grid-scale solar array.
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Meridian Energy Limited engages in the generation and retailing of electricity to residential, business, and industrial customers in New Zealand, Australia, and the United Kingdom. The company generates electricity through 7 hydro stations; 8 wind farms; and 100MW battery energy storage system, as well as grid-scale solar array. It sells electricity under the Meridian Energy and Powershop brands. It also offers solar installation, software development, professional, and insurance services. The company was formerly known as Hydro Energy Limited. Meridian Energy Limited was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Wellington, New Zealand.
Stock analysis
Meridian Energy Limited (MDDNF) currently trades at $3.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.37, 54.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $1.86 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the $3.03 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $0.4200, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $0.9500 (bear) to $1.98 (bull), the price of $3.03 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Meridian Energy Limited reported revenue of 4.8B NZD in FY2025 versus 4.0B NZD in FY2021, a compound +4.9%/yr. Reported net income was −452M NZD in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $9.2B · P/S ratio 2.00 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0200 · Dividend yield 7.0% · Net margin −9.4% · Return on equity −1.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.1% · Operating margin 18.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −40% fair-value upside, at −55%, MDDNF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.9500Fair Value $1.37Bull $1.98
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.2% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
16.0% (2019) → 15.5% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+39.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in NZD, New Zealand: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.0% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +36.5% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (85 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Compare Meridian Energy Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Renewable · 199 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score37 · Below median
Fair Value upside−53.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−0.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−2.3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)18.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−11.0% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)7.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.14× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.03× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)2.00× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF68.5× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA23.0× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.80× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 13
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 8
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 14
HEALTH (low debt)93· sector 67
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 44
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Meridian Energy Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MDDNF
Frequently asked questions
Is Meridian Energy Limited (MDDNF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.37 versus a price of $3.03, about −55% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MDDNF?
Our model-based fair value for Meridian Energy Limited is $1.37 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.03.
What is the quality score of MDDNF?
Meridian Energy Limited has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Meridian Energy Limited (MDDNF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.37 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.9500, optimistic scenario $1.98. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Meridian Energy Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.37, about −55% upside versus a price of $3.03 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.9500, optimistic scenario $1.98. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Meridian Energy Limited (MDDNF)?
Meridian Energy Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.6B NZD (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Meridian Energy Limited pay a dividend?
Meridian Energy Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.04% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Meridian Energy Limited (MDDNF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Meridian Energy Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +39.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.2 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MDDNF use?
Our models discount Meridian Energy Limited at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.46, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Meridian Energy Limited that is +39.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Meridian Energy Limited (MDDNF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Meridian Energy Limited grew +7.2 % a year. The price currently implies +39.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Meridian Energy Limited (MDDNF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Meridian Energy Limited (+39.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Meridian Energy Limited (MDDNF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.96 %: that much free cash flow Meridian Energy Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Meridian Energy Limited (MDDNF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Meridian Energy Limited it is $1.37 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $3.03. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Meridian Energy Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, MDDNF trades above its calculated fair value: price $3.03, fair value $1.37, a gap of about −55% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MDDNF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.03); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.37). For Meridian Energy Limited the two are $1.66 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Meridian Energy Limited worth?
The market values Meridian Energy Limited at about $9.2B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $3.03; our models calculate a fair value of $1.37 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MDDNF?
Our models span a range for Meridian Energy Limited: cautious scenario $0.9500, base $1.37, optimistic $1.98 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $3.03). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of MDDNF?
The PEG ratio of Meridian Energy Limited is 0.80 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Meridian Energy Limited (MDDNF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Meridian Energy Limited (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity −1.2%, debt of 0.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Meridian Energy Limited?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value China Yangtze Power Co, Ørsted A/S, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc, Fortum Oyj, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Meridian Energy Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $3.03, calculated fair value $1.37 (−55%), Quality Score 37/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MDDNF calculated?
We run Meridian Energy Limited through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.37, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Meridian Energy Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Meridian Energy Limited (MDDNF)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was $3.03. Our model-based fair value is $1.37, about −55% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Meridian Energy Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.98). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($0.9500 to $1.98) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Meridian Energy Limited (MDDNF) come from?
Earnings per share at Meridian Energy Limited grew +1.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.2 %, EBIT margin +4.2 %, tax rate −1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −5.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Meridian Energy Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Meridian Energy Limited (MDDNF)?
The market capitalisation of Meridian Energy Limited is $9.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Meridian Energy Limited (MDDNF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Meridian Energy Limited is 2.00 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Meridian Energy Limited (MDDNF)?
Earnings per share at Meridian Energy Limited are $−0.0200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Meridian Energy Limited (MDDNF)?
The dividend yield of Meridian Energy Limited is 7.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Meridian Energy Limited (MDDNF)?
The net margin of Meridian Energy Limited is −9.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Meridian Energy Limited (MDDNF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Meridian Energy Limited is −1.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Meridian Energy Limited (MDDNF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Meridian Energy Limited is 6.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Meridian Energy Limited (MDDNF)?
The operating margin of Meridian Energy Limited is 18.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Meridian Energy Limited (MDDNF)?
Revenue at Meridian Energy Limited is growing −11.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Meridian Energy Limited (MDDNF)?
Earnings per share at Meridian Energy Limited are growing −5.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Meridian Energy Limited (MDDNF) carry?
The net debt of Meridian Energy Limited is 1.5B NZD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 11.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Oct 3, 2026