Medpace Holdings (MEDP) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $15.3B
Medpace Holdings
MEDP · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $284.18 to $286.91 (+1.0%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +7.1% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 51% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 80/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The model range is unusually wide ($215.29 to $609.25). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $130.20 – $620.59 · fair‑value band $215.29 – $609.25 · the $585.01 price screens above the $286.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Medpace Holdings (MEDP) currently trades at $585.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $286.91, implying the stock looks roughly 51.0% overvalued today. We read business quality at 80/100 (high quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Medpace Holdings generated revenue of $2.7B at a net margin of 17.2%. Revenue grew 26.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 77.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $247M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $215.29 (bear case) to $609.25 (bull case); at $585.01, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 99% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -51%, MEDP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($556.96) versus Dividend Discount ($6.41). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 84 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Medpace Holdings, Inc. provides clinical research-based drug and medical device development services in North America, Europe, Asia, South America, Africa, and Australia. The company offers a suite of services supporting the clinical development process from Phase I to Phase IV in various therapeutic areas.
Full company description
Medpace Holdings, Inc. provides clinical research-based drug and medical device development services in North America, Europe, Asia, South America, Africa, and Australia. The company offers a suite of services supporting the clinical development process from Phase I to Phase IV in various therapeutic areas. It provides clinical development services to the pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical device industries; and development plan design, coordinated central laboratory, project management, regulatory affairs, clinical monitoring, data management and analysis, pharmacovigilance new drug application submissions, and post-marketing clinical support services. In addition, the company offers bio-analytical laboratory services, clinical human pharmacology, imaging services, and electrocardiography reading support for clinical trials. Medpace Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1992 and is based in Cincinnati, Ohio.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Medpace Holdings reported revenue of $2.5B in FY2025 versus $1.1B in FY2021, a compound +22.0%/yr. Reported net income was $451M in FY2025, compounding +25.5%/yr from FY2021.
MEDP screens 51% overvalued. Compare with Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- 3 Reasons Why Growth Investors Shouldn't Overlook Medpace (MEDP)
- Why Medpace Holdings (MEDP) Is Up 11.8% After Raising 2026 Guidance And Expanding Backlog
- Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP) Hit a 52 Week High, Can the Run Continue?
Peer Group
Diagnostics & Research · 137 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Diagnostics & Research median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Diagnostics & Research stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc TMO | $543.19 | $308.19 | -43% |
| Danaher Corporation DHR | $199.66 | $103.88 | -48% |
| WuXi AppTec Co 2359 | HK$160.70 | HK$125.20 | -22% |
| Lonza Group LONN | CHF 567.80 | CHF 259.80 | -54% |
| IDEXX Laboratories, Inc IDXX | $567.44 | $255.77 | -55% |
| Agilent Technologies, Inc A | $131.46 | $62.70 | -52% |
| Waters Corporation WAT | $368.98 | $121.96 | -67% |
| IQVIA Holdings IQV | $207.85 | $134.18 | -35% |
| Integrated Diagnostics Holdings IDHC | $0.0050 | $0.0053 | +5% |
| Illumina, Inc ILMN | $186.65 | $95.51 | -49% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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