Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Medpace Holdings Inc stock $713, price $657, upside +8.6%, quality 87 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $130.20 – $692.68 · fair‑value band $462.32 – $926.86 · the $656.77 price screens below the $712.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Medpace Holdings, Inc. provides clinical research-based drug and medical device development services in North America, Europe, Asia, South America, Africa, and Australia.
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The company offers a suite of services supporting the clinical development process from Phase I to Phase IV in various therapeutic areas.
It provides clinical development services to the pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical device industries; and development plan design, coordinated central laboratory, project management, regulatory affairs, clinical monitoring, data management and analysis, pharmacovigilance new drug application submissions, and post-marketing clinical support services.
In addition, the company offers bio-analytical laboratory services, clinical human pharmacology, imaging services, and electrocardiography reading support for clinical trials. Medpace Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1992 and is based in Cincinnati, Ohio.
Stock analysis
Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP) currently trades at $656.77, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $712.95, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 7.9%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $572.15 per share, and 3 of the 22 models we run sit above the $656.77 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $108.15, and 19 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $462.32 (bear) to $926.86 (bull), the price of $656.77 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 87/100 (high quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Medpace Holdings Inc reported revenue of $2.5B in FY2025 versus $1.1B in FY2021, a compound +22.0%/yr. Reported net income was $451M in FY2025, compounding +25.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $18.9B Large · P/E ratio 36.5 · P/S ratio 6.66 · EPS (TTM) $18.01 · Net margin 18.2% · Return on equity 118% · Return on assets (EBIT) 20.3% · Operating margin 23.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 83 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 67% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at 9%, MEDP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$462.32Fair Value $712.95Bull$926.86
Price $656.77 · Upside +8.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($15.30 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 8 officers or directors sold shares worth $230.2M and none bought.
SaleStephen P EwaldGeneral Counsel & Corp. Secy.2× since May 28, 2026: 17,594 shares, avg. $466.98$8.2MOct 29, 2026
SaleSusan E BurwigExec. VP, Operations4× since Nov 11, 2025: 65,500 shares, avg. $627.68$41.1MOct 27, 2026
SaleAugust J. TroendlePresident & CEO, Director, 10% owner21× since Nov 12, 2025: 586,377 shares, avg. $611.30$358.5MSep 30, 2026
SaleRobert O. KraftDirector2× since Nov 14, 2025: 10,330 shares, avg. $601.55$6.2MAug 26, 2026
SaleKevin M. BradyCFO & Treasurer2× since Nov 21, 2025: 6,400 shares, avg. $608.89$3.9MAug 20, 2026
SaleFred B Davenport JrDirector7,283 shares at $606.15$4.4MAug 19, 2026
SaleBrian T CarleyDirector5,000 shares at $608.63$3.0MAug 19, 2026
SaleCornelius P. McCarthy IIIDirector2× since Aug 7, 2026: 1,935 shares, avg. $597.03$1.2MAug 11, 2026
SaleJesse J GeigerPresident31,707 shares at $455.30$14.4MMar 17, 2026
Plus 16 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +21.6% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+32.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+32.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.31.7% vs 45.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.18% → 21%
2025 sits 72% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.4% a year for the price and +4.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Robust new business awards and backlog expansion form Medpace's main strength, while the rising share of low-margin pass-through revenue stands as its key weakness for margin durability.
Main risk: Generative AI and automation might allow pharmaceutical companies to manage more clinical trial work internally, reducing demand for Medpace's outsourced CRO services and squeezing its revenue base.
Bull case: Medpace could integrate AI tools more deeply into its own trial management and imaging services to offer superior efficiency that attracts clients wary of insourcing and strengthens its competitive position.
Bear case: If clients increasingly use AI to handle trials in-house and larger or virtual rivals win more business, Medpace might see sustained erosion of its addressable market and pressure on service volumes and margins.
Medpace has seen robust new business awards and backlog expansion in recent quarters. A growing portion of its revenue now stems from low-margin pass-through costs that boost reported growth but add little to operating profit. Will the upcoming earnings show the underlying service business sustaining its margins or the mix weighing on profitability?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Diagnostics & Research · 126 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score87 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+8.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)117.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets22.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)18.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)23.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)8.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.17× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Diagnostics & Research median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)36.5× · Pricier than median
P/B41.15× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $712.95 versus a price of $656.77, about +9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of MEDP?
Our model-based fair value for Medpace Holdings Inc is $712.95 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $656.77.
What is the quality score of MEDP?
Medpace Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 87/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $712.95 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $462.32, optimistic scenario $926.86. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Medpace Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $712.95, about +9% upside versus a price of $656.77 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $462.32, optimistic scenario $926.86. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP)?
Medpace Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Medpace Holdings Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +15.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +22.3 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MEDP use?
Our models discount Medpace Holdings Inc at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.18, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Medpace Holdings Inc that is +15.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Medpace Holdings Inc grew +22.3 % a year. The price currently implies +15.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Medpace Holdings Inc (+15.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.61 %: that much free cash flow Medpace Holdings Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Medpace Holdings Inc it is $712.95 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $656.77. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Medpace Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, MEDP trades below its calculated fair value: price $656.77, fair value $712.95, a gap of about +9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MEDP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($656.77); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($712.95). For Medpace Holdings Inc the two are $56.18 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Medpace Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Medpace Holdings Inc at about $18.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $656.77; our models calculate a fair value of $712.95 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MEDP?
Our models span a range for Medpace Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $462.32, base $712.95, optimistic $926.86 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $656.77). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MEDP?
Medpace Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 36.5 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $712.95 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2023, FY2025 ex one-offs: 35.9. Other multiples: PEG 3.2, P/B 41.2, P/S 6.7, EV/EBITDA 29.1.
What is the PEG ratio of MEDP?
The PEG ratio of Medpace Holdings Inc is 3.16 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Medpace Holdings Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 117.9%, debt of 0.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 87/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MEDP from its 52-week high?
Medpace Holdings Inc trades at $656.77, about 5% below its 52-week high of $692.68 and 67% above the low of $393.42 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $712.95 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Medpace Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc, Danaher Corporation, WuXi AppTec Co, Lonza Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Medpace Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $656.77, calculated fair value $712.95 (+9%), Quality Score 87/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MEDP calculated?
We run Medpace Holdings Inc through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $712.95, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Medpace Holdings Inc currently trades 8% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $656.77. Our model-based fair value is $712.95, about +9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Medpace Holdings Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($462.32 to $926.86) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Medpace Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP)?
The market capitalisation of Medpace Holdings Inc is $18.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Medpace Holdings Inc is 6.66 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP)?
Earnings per share at Medpace Holdings Inc are $18.01 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 36.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP)?
The net margin of Medpace Holdings Inc is 18.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Medpace Holdings Inc is 118% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Medpace Holdings Inc is 20.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP)?
The operating margin of Medpace Holdings Inc is 23.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP)?
Revenue at Medpace Holdings Inc is growing +8.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +20.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP)?
Earnings per share at Medpace Holdings Inc are growing +25.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP) hold?
Medpace Holdings Inc holds more cash than debt, $247M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Nov 6, 2026