Melon SA (MELON) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Aug 20, 2026: fair value of Melon SA CLP 1, price CLP 1, upside +57.4%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.1886 CLP – 0.6800 CLP · fair‑value band 0.8100 CLP – 1.34 CLP · the 0.6800 CLP price screens below the 1.07 CLP fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
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Melon S.A., through its subsidiaries, produces, markets, and supplies cement, ready-mix concrete, and aggregates in Chile. It operates through two segments, Cement and Aggregates. The company's products are used in high-rise buildings, civil and industrial works, mining and port works, and household.
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Melon S.A., through its subsidiaries, produces, markets, and supplies cement, ready-mix concrete, and aggregates in Chile. It operates through two segments, Cement and Aggregates. The company's products are used in high-rise buildings, civil and industrial works, mining and port works, and household. It serves construction material distributors; construction companies; and the real estate, infrastructure, civil works, mining and concrete sectors. The company was formerly known as Lafarge Chile SA and changed its name to Melon S.A. in October 2009. Melon S.A. was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Santiago, Chile. Melon S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Inversiones Cordillera del Sur II Spa.
Stock analysis
Melon SA (MELON) currently trades at 0.6800 CLP, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1.07 CLP, implying the stock looks roughly 36.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 1.11 CLP per share, and 18 of the 23 models we run sit above the 0.6800 CLP price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 0.3700 CLP, and 5 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 0.8100 CLP (bear) to 1.34 CLP (bull), the price of 0.6800 CLP sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Melon SA reported revenue of 262B CLP in FY2025 versus 240B CLP in FY2021, a compound +2.3%/yr. Reported net income was 17.7B CLP in FY2025, compounding +9.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 190B CLP (≈ $192M) · P/E ratio 17.0 · P/S ratio 1.14 · EPS (TTM) 0.0400 CLP · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin 6.7% · Return on equity 6.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 91% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at 57%, MELON screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 0.8100 CLPFair Value 1.07 CLPBull 1.34 CLP
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.0234 CLP per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.61/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.2% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in CLP ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in CLP: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+24.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+23.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.3%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 7%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−2.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Chile: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 4.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Materials · 252 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside+57.4% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6.2% · Above median
Return on assets−1.3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)4.7% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−2.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−2.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.16× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Materials median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Melon SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MELON
Frequently asked questions
Is Melon SA (MELON) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 1.07 CLP versus the last price from Aug 20, 2026 of 0.6800 CLP, about +57% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MELON?
Our model-based fair value for Melon SA is 1.07 CLP (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Aug 20, 2026): 0.6800 CLP.
What is the quality score of MELON?
Melon SA has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Melon SA (MELON)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 1.07 CLP (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario 0.8100 CLP, optimistic scenario 1.34 CLP. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Melon SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 1.07 CLP, about +57% upside versus the last price from Aug 20, 2026 of 0.6800 CLP (undervalued). Cautious scenario 0.8100 CLP, optimistic scenario 1.34 CLP. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Melon SA (MELON)?
Melon SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 260B CLP (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does Melon SA pay a dividend?
Melon SA currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.32% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Melon SA (MELON)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Melon SA would have to grow free cash flow by -2.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.9 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MELON use?
Our models discount Melon SA at 12.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.32, country premium for Chile. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Melon SA that is -2.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Melon SA (MELON) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Melon SA grew +6.9 % a year. The price currently implies -2.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Melon SA (MELON) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Melon SA (-2.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Melon SA (MELON)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.39 %: that much free cash flow Melon SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Melon SA (MELON)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Melon SA it is 1.07 CLP per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of 0.6800 CLP. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Melon SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, MELON trades below its calculated fair value: price 0.6800 CLP, fair value 1.07 CLP, a gap of about +57% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MELON?
No. The price is what the market pays today (0.6800 CLP); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (1.07 CLP). For Melon SA the two are 0.3900 CLP per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Melon SA worth?
The market values Melon SA at about 190B CLP (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is 0.6800 CLP; our models calculate a fair value of 1.07 CLP per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MELON?
Our models span a range for Melon SA: cautious scenario 0.8100 CLP, base 1.07 CLP, optimistic 1.34 CLP per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price 0.6800 CLP). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MELON?
Melon SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.0 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 1.07 CLP is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 24.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Melon SA (MELON)?
Balance-sheet figures for Melon SA (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 6.2%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MELON from its 52-week high?
Melon SA trades at 0.6800 CLP, at its 52-week high of 0.6800 CLP and 91% above the low of 0.3553 CLP (as of Aug 20, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 1.07 CLP is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Melon SA?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value CRH plc, Holcim AG, Martin Marietta Materials, Inc, UltraTech Cement Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Melon SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price 0.6800 CLP, calculated fair value 1.07 CLP (+57%), Quality Score 56/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MELON calculated?
We run Melon SA through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 1.07 CLP, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Melon SA currently trades 36 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Melon SA (MELON)?
The latest price we hold is from Aug 20, 2026 and stands at 0.6800 CLP. Our model-based fair value is 1.07 CLP, about +57% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Melon SA right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (0.8100 CLP). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Melon SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Melon SA (MELON)?
The market capitalisation of Melon SA is 190B CLP (≈ $192M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Melon SA (MELON)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Melon SA is 1.14 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Melon SA (MELON)?
Earnings per share at Melon SA are 0.0400 CLP (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Melon SA (MELON)?
The dividend yield of Melon SA is 1.3% (payout 22.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Melon SA (MELON)?
The net margin of Melon SA is 6.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Melon SA (MELON)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Melon SA is 6.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Melon SA (MELON)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Melon SA is 0.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Melon SA (MELON)?
The operating margin of Melon SA is −2.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Melon SA (MELON)?
Revenue at Melon SA is growing −2.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Melon SA (MELON)?
Earnings per share at Melon SA are growing −64.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Melon SA (MELON) carry?
The net debt of Melon SA is 65.9B CLP (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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