Merck Tbk (MERK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Merck Tbk IDR 10,115, price IDR 3,550, upside +184.9%, quality 87 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 2,185 IDR – 4,267 IDR · fair‑value band 7,290 IDR – 13,791 IDR · the 3,550 IDR price screens below the 10,115 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.
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PT Merck Tbk engages in the manufacture and sale of pharmaceutical products in Indonesia and internationally. The company operates through Biopharma, Consumer Health, and Others segments. It offers health care products in the areas of cardiovascular, metabolic, oncology, endocrinology, fertility, and neurodegenerative diseases, as well as general medicines.
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PT Merck Tbk engages in the manufacture and sale of pharmaceutical products in Indonesia and internationally. The company operates through Biopharma, Consumer Health, and Others segments. It offers health care products in the areas of cardiovascular, metabolic, oncology, endocrinology, fertility, and neurodegenerative diseases, as well as general medicines. The company also engages in research, development, production, and distribution of pharmaceutical and biological prescription medicines to treat colorectal cancer, head and neck cancer, multiple sclerosis, infertility, growth hormone disorders, and diabetes, as well as thyroid disorders, such as hypothyroidism. In addition, it is involved in the office/property leasing and management activities. The company was formerly known as PT Merck Indonesia Tbk and changed its name to PT Merck Tbk in June 2002. The company was founded in 1970 and is based in Jakarta Timur, Indonesia. PT Merck Tbk operates as a subsidiary of Merck Holding GmbH.
Stock analysis
Merck Tbk (MERK) currently trades at 3,550 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 10,115 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 64.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 10,645 IDR per share, and 22 of the 26 models we run sit above the 3,550 IDR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 1,459 IDR, and 4 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 7,290 IDR (bear) to 13,791 IDR (bull), the price of 3,550 IDR sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 87/100 (high quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Merck Tbk reported revenue of 1.2T IDR in FY2025 versus 1.1T IDR in FY2021, a compound +3.1%/yr. Reported net income was 244B IDR in FY2025, compounding +16.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 1.6T IDR (≈ $88.9M) · P/E ratio 4.8 · P/S ratio 0.97 · EPS (TTM) 743.02 IDR · Dividend yield 7.7% · Net margin 20.3% · Return on equity 37.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 21.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 185%, MERK screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 7,290 IDRFair Value 10,115 IDRBull 13,791 IDR
Price 3,550 IDR · Upside +184.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (356.46 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.98/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.0% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+33.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+25.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.25.5% vs 4.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 27%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−18.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −20.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 602 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score87 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+184.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)37.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets24.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)24.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)17.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth31.0% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)7.7% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Merck Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MERK
Frequently asked questions
Is Merck Tbk (MERK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 10,115 IDR versus a price of 3,550 IDR, about +185% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MERK?
Our model-based fair value for Merck Tbk is 10,115 IDR (as of Oct 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 3,550 IDR.
What is the quality score of MERK?
Merck Tbk has a Quality Score of 87/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Merck Tbk (MERK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 10,115 IDR (as of Oct 4, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 7,290 IDR, optimistic scenario 13,791 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Merck Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 10,115 IDR, about +185% upside versus a price of 3,550 IDR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 7,290 IDR, optimistic scenario 13,791 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Merck Tbk (MERK)?
Merck Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.4T IDR (latest available figure, as of Oct 4, 2026).
Does Merck Tbk pay a dividend?
Merck Tbk currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.75% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Merck Tbk (MERK)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Merck Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by -18.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.9 % per year. As of Oct 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MERK use?
Our models discount Merck Tbk at 13.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.17, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Merck Tbk that is -18.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Merck Tbk (MERK) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Merck Tbk grew +12.9 % a year. The price currently implies -18.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Merck Tbk (MERK) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Merck Tbk (-18.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Merck Tbk (MERK)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 22.69 %: that much free cash flow Merck Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Merck Tbk (MERK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Merck Tbk it is 10,115 IDR per share (as of Oct 4, 2026), against a price of 3,550 IDR. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Merck Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 4, 2026, MERK trades below its calculated fair value: price 3,550 IDR, fair value 10,115 IDR, a gap of about +185% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MERK?
No. The price is what the market pays today (3,550 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (10,115 IDR). For Merck Tbk the two are 6,565 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Merck Tbk worth?
The market values Merck Tbk at about 1.6T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 4, 2026). Per share that is 3,550 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 10,115 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MERK?
Our models span a range for Merck Tbk: cautious scenario 7,290 IDR, base 10,115 IDR, optimistic 13,791 IDR per share (as of Oct 4, 2026, price 3,550 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MERK?
Merck Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.8 (as of Oct 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 10,115 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.6, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 2.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Merck Tbk (MERK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Merck Tbk (as of Oct 4, 2026): return on equity 37.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 87/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MERK from its 52-week high?
Merck Tbk trades at 3,550 IDR, about 13% below its 52-week high of 4,068 IDR and 37% above the low of 2,591 IDR (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 10,115 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Merck Tbk?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Merck KGaA, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Merck Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 4, 2026: price 3,550 IDR, calculated fair value 10,115 IDR (+185%), Quality Score 87/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MERK calculated?
We run Merck Tbk through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 10,115 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Merck Tbk currently trades 65 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Merck Tbk (MERK)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was 3,550 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 10,115 IDR, about +185% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Merck Tbk right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (87/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (7,290 IDR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (7,290 IDR to 13,791 IDR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Merck Tbk (MERK) come from?
Earnings per share at Merck Tbk grew +2.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.2 %, EBIT margin +0.8 %, tax rate +0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Merck Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Merck Tbk (MERK)?
The market capitalisation of Merck Tbk is 1.6T IDR (≈ $88.9M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Merck Tbk (MERK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Merck Tbk is 0.97 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Merck Tbk (MERK)?
Earnings per share at Merck Tbk are 743.02 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Merck Tbk (MERK)?
The dividend yield of Merck Tbk is 7.7% (payout 37.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Merck Tbk (MERK)?
The net margin of Merck Tbk is 20.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Merck Tbk (MERK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Merck Tbk is 37.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Merck Tbk (MERK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Merck Tbk is 21.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Merck Tbk (MERK)?
The operating margin of Merck Tbk is 17.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Merck Tbk (MERK)?
Revenue at Merck Tbk is growing +31.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Merck Tbk (MERK)?
Earnings per share at Merck Tbk are growing +400% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Merck Tbk (MERK) hold?
Merck Tbk holds more cash than debt, 350B IDR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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