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MERKO Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · TR · Market cap 1.2B TRY

M MERKO MERKO · IS
Price1.37 TRY
Fair Value4.62 TRY
Upside+237.2%
Quality50/100
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Mixed Growth
Loss-making · -10.5% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (6/11)
Narrow moat 23/100
Evidence: Medium Range 2.80 TRY – 5.53 TRY Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated today

Share price −11.0% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 237% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (2.80 TRY). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (2.80 TRY to 5.53 TRY) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

2.50 TRY 0.4023 TRY Fair Value 4.62 TRY May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 0.4023 TRY – 2.50 TRY · fair‑value band 2.80 TRY – 5.53 TRY · the 1.37 TRY price screens below the 4.62 TRY fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

MERKO (MERKO) currently trades at 1.37 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 4.62 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 237.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, MERKO generated revenue of 70.6M TRY at a net margin of -10.5%. Revenue grew 3.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -37.4%. Net debt stands at 184M TRY. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 2.80 TRY (bear case) to 5.53 TRY (bull case); at 1.37 TRY, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at 237%, MERKO screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 3.72 TRY 6.44 TRY 10.71 TRY 80
Rev-Margin DCF 2.79 TRY 4.66 TRY 8.60 TRY 74
ROIC Compounder 4.54 TRY 6.76 TRY 8.52 TRY 72
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 3.97 TRY 5.81 TRY 11.28 TRY 38
Owner Earnings 2.10 TRY 4.37 TRY 8.57 TRY 31
5Y Revenue Exit 2.55 TRY 4.07 TRY 7.23 TRY 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 4.97 TRY 8.96 TRY 16.80 TRY 41
5Y P/E Exit 2.75 TRY 5.54 TRY 9.22 TRY 38
10Y Revenue Exit 2.98 TRY 5.71 TRY 7.21 TRY 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 4.66 TRY 10.47 TRY 20.65 TRY 37
10Y P/E Exit 3.18 TRY 6.12 TRY 10.71 TRY 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 0.9300 TRY 6.46 TRY 9.07 TRY 54
Lynch FV 3.34 TRY 4.77 TRY 6.20 TRY 50
PEG = 1.0 3.34 TRY 4.77 TRY 6.20 TRY 46
EPV 3.51 TRY 3.99 TRY 4.39 TRY 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple 2.15 TRY 2.86 TRY 3.58 TRY 63
P/S Multiple 1.74 TRY 2.32 TRY 2.90 TRY 58
P/B Multiple 1.74 TRY 2.32 TRY 2.90 TRY 55
EV/EBIT 6.22 TRY 8.30 TRY 10.38 TRY 53
EV/EBITDA 5.35 TRY 7.13 TRY 8.92 TRY 54
EV/Revenue 1.71 TRY 2.45 TRY 3.19 TRY 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 0.8200 TRY 1.09 TRY 1.63 TRY 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 3.72 TRY 6.44 TRY 10.71 TRY 80
Rev-Margin DCF 2.79 TRY 4.66 TRY 8.60 TRY 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 1.29 TRY 1.36 TRY 1.45 TRY 61
ROIC Compounder 4.54 TRY 6.76 TRY 8.52 TRY 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 4.37 TRY 6.24 TRY 8.11 TRY 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (6.24 TRY) versus Asset-Based (1.09 TRY). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 70.6M TRY
Revenue growth (YoY) +3.9%
Net margin -10.5%
Return on equity -37.4%
Free cash flow 249M TRY FY2023
P/E ratio 1.7
More key figures
Operating margin 20.8%
EPS (TTM) 0.8000 TRY
EPS growth (YoY) +5.1%
Net debt 184M TRY FY2023

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 50/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 20

Profitability 33
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 72
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 85
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 55
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 64
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 2
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 2
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 40
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Merko Gida Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. processes tomatoes in Turkey. It offers tomato paste, diced tomatoes, canned tomatoes, and tomato juice concentrates. The company was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Istanbul, Turkey.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2019 – FY2023 · reported fiscal years

MERKO reported revenue of 1.4B TRY in FY2023 versus 66.9M TRY in FY2019, a compound +113.7%/yr. Reported net income was 116M TRY in FY2023.

Growth Quality 82/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2023)
1.4B TRY
Latest YoY
+65.2%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+184.3%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+64.6%
Avg. growth/yr (17Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+20.9%
Revenue +113.7%/yr
FY19 66.9M TRY
FY20 60.8M TRY
FY21 115M TRY
FY22 845M TRY
FY23 1.4B TRY
Net income
FY19 −15.8M TRY
FY20 5.8M TRY
FY21 1.9M TRY
FY22 −1.1M TRY
FY23 116M TRY

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MERKO · Fair Value
4.62 TRY +237%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MERKO Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MERKO.IS

Peer Group

Packaged Foods · 651 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 50 · Below median
Return on assets -0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) -11% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 21% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 4% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.04× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 1.7× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.35× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.1× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 9.0× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 27
FUTURE 20 · sector 19
PAST 0 · sector 27
HEALTH 98 · sector 96
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 47

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND ₹1,427 ₹362.37 -75%
Uni-President Enterprises Corp 1216 79.00 TWD 68.72 TWD -13%
Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA ₹5,413 ₹1,870 -65%
Tata Consumer Products Limited TATACONSUM ₹1,089 ₹327.27 -70%
PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP 6,650 IDR 15,757 IDR +137%
Samyang Foods Co 003230 1,139,000 KRW 1,010,543 KRW -11%
Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company VNM 58,500 VND 68,259 VND +17%
Patanjali Foods Limited PATANJALI ₹413.80 ₹157.04 -62%
PT Mayora Indah Tbk, MYOR 1,750 IDR 2,699 IDR +54%
PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk CMRY 4,490 IDR 4,355 IDR -3%

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Frequently asked questions

Is MERKO overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 4.62 TRY versus a price of 1.37 TRY, about +237% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MERKO?
Our model-based fair value for MERKO is 4.62 TRY (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 1.37 TRY.
What is the quality score of MERKO?
MERKO has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of MERKO?
MERKO reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 70.6M TRY (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of MERKO?
The net profit margin of MERKO is about -10.5%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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