Medallion Financial Corp (MFIN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Medallion Financial Corp $9.20, price $11.54, upside -20.3%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Medallion Financial Corp for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.60 – $12.22 · fair‑value band $2.31 – $12.76 · the $11.54 price screens above the $9.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Follow Medallion Financial in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Medallion Financial is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Medallion Financial Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a specialty finance company in the United States. It operates in four segments: Recreation Lending, Home Improvement Lending, Commercial Loans, Taxi Medallion Lending.
Show more
Medallion Financial Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a specialty finance company in the United States. It operates in four segments: Recreation Lending, Home Improvement Lending, Commercial Loans, Taxi Medallion Lending. The company offers loans that finance consumer purchases of recreational vehicles, boats, collector cars, and other consumer recreational equipment; consumer financing for window, siding, and roof replacement, swimming pool installations, and other home improvement projects; senior and subordinated loans for the purchase of equipment and related assets necessary to open a new business, or purchase or improvement of an existing business; and taxi medallion loans to individuals and small to mid-size businesses. It also provides debt, mezzanine, and equity investment capital to companies in various commercial industries; and raises deposits and conducts other banking activities. The company was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in New York City, New York.
Stock analysis
Medallion Financial Corp (MFIN) currently trades at $11.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.20, implying the stock looks roughly 25.5% overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $75.13 per share, and 10 of the 12 models we run sit above the $11.54 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $5.25, and 2 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $2.31 (bear) to $12.76 (bull), the price of $11.54 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Medallion Financial Corp reported revenue of $353M in FY2025 versus $179M in FY2021, a compound +18.5%/yr. Reported net income was $43.0M in FY2025, compounding −5.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $280M · P/E ratio 7.8 · P/S ratio 0.95 · EPS (TTM) $1.48 · Dividend yield 4.2% · Net margin 12.2% · Return on equity 10.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −20%, MFIN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.31Fair Value $9.20Bull $12.76
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.7342 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.87/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+21.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +20.3% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.0%
’13
’14
’15
’16
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−0.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−4% vs 5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−24% → 51%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−24.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−27.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −26.4% a year for the price and −28.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (82 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Compare Medallion Financial Corp with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Credit Services · 331 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Above median
Fair Value upside−20% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)10% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)45% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−6% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.53× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Credit Services median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Medallion Financial Corp (MFIN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $9.20 versus a price of $11.54, about −20% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MFIN?
Our model-based fair value for Medallion Financial Corp is $9.20 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.54.
What is the quality score of MFIN?
Medallion Financial Corp has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Medallion Financial Corp (MFIN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $9.20 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.31, optimistic scenario $12.76. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Medallion Financial Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $9.20, about −20% upside versus a price of $11.54 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.31, optimistic scenario $12.76. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Medallion Financial Corp (MFIN)?
Medallion Financial Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $348M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Medallion Financial Corp pay a dividend?
Medallion Financial Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.16% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Medallion Financial Corp (MFIN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Medallion Financial Corp would have to grow free cash flow by -24.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.5 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MFIN use?
Our models discount Medallion Financial Corp at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.77, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Medallion Financial Corp that is -24.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Medallion Financial Corp (MFIN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Medallion Financial Corp grew +18.5 % a year. The price currently implies -24.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Medallion Financial Corp (MFIN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Medallion Financial Corp (-24.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Medallion Financial Corp (MFIN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 45.13 %: that much free cash flow Medallion Financial Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Medallion Financial Corp (MFIN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Medallion Financial Corp it is $9.20 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $11.54. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Medallion Financial Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, MFIN trades above its calculated fair value: price $11.54, fair value $9.20, a gap of about −20% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MFIN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.54); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($9.20). For Medallion Financial Corp the two are $2.34 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Medallion Financial Corp worth?
The market values Medallion Financial Corp at about $280M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $11.54; our models calculate a fair value of $9.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MFIN?
Our models span a range for Medallion Financial Corp: cautious scenario $2.31, base $9.20, optimistic $12.76 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $11.54). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MFIN?
Medallion Financial Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.8 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $9.20 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 0.7, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 1.6.
What is the PEG ratio of MFIN?
The PEG ratio of Medallion Financial Corp is 0.77 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Medallion Financial Corp (MFIN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Medallion Financial Corp (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 10.3%, debt of 0.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MFIN from its 52-week high?
Medallion Financial Corp trades at $11.54, about 6% below its 52-week high of $12.22 and 46% above the low of $7.89 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $9.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Medallion Financial Corp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Visa Inc, Mastercard Incorporated, American Express Company, Capital One Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Medallion Financial Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $11.54, calculated fair value $9.20 (−20%), Quality Score 63/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MFIN calculated?
We run Medallion Financial Corp through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $9.20, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Medallion Financial Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Medallion Financial Corp (MFIN)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $11.54. Our model-based fair value is $9.20, about −20% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Medallion Financial Corp right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($2.31 to $12.76). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Medallion Financial Corp (MFIN) come from?
Earnings per share at Medallion Financial Corp grew +6.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +17.7 %, EBIT margin −5.3 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −5.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Medallion Financial Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Medallion Financial Corp (MFIN)?
The market capitalisation of Medallion Financial Corp is $280M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Medallion Financial Corp (MFIN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Medallion Financial Corp is 0.95 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Medallion Financial Corp (MFIN)?
Earnings per share at Medallion Financial Corp are $1.48 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Medallion Financial Corp (MFIN)?
The dividend yield of Medallion Financial Corp is 4.2% (payout 32.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Medallion Financial Corp (MFIN)?
The net margin of Medallion Financial Corp is 12.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Medallion Financial Corp (MFIN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Medallion Financial Corp is 10.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Medallion Financial Corp (MFIN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Medallion Financial Corp is 3.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Medallion Financial Corp (MFIN)?
The operating margin of Medallion Financial Corp is 45.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Medallion Financial Corp (MFIN)?
Revenue at Medallion Financial Corp is growing −6.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +21.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Medallion Financial Corp (MFIN)?
Earnings per share at Medallion Financial Corp are growing −60.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Medallion Financial Corp (MFIN) carry?
The net debt of Medallion Financial Corp is $115M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Medallion Financial Corp in the live analysis
One click puts Medallion Financial Corp on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Broad data
Sep 23, 2026