Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd (MMSMY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd $27.63, price $28.83, upside -4.2%, quality 71 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.96 – $69.55 · fair‑value band $14.49 – $39.34 · the $28.83 price screens above the $27.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Mitsui Kinzoku Company, Limited engages in the manufacture and sale of metal products in Japan and internationally. It operates through Engineered Materials, Metals, Mobility, and Other Businesses segments.
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Mitsui Kinzoku Company, Limited engages in the manufacture and sale of metal products in Japan and internationally. It operates through Engineered Materials, Metals, Mobility, and Other Businesses segments. The company offers engineered powders, including ultra-fine powders for electronic materials, powder metallurgy, and solder powders; rare metals, such as tantalumu and niobium oxides and carbides, and cerium oxide abrasives; battery materials comprising hydrogen storage alloys and lithium manganese oxides; catalysts; copper foils; PVD materials; and ceramics for electronic components. It also provides side and back door latches, hood latches, etc. for automobiles; perlite for processing and cooling; Nenisanso, a soil improvement material; and ROKAHELP, a perlite-based filter aid. In addition, the company smelts and recycles nonferrous metals consisting of zinc, zinc base alloys, lead, tin, antimony trioxide, copper, gold and silver, and sulfuric acid; explores for copper and zinc ores; operates geothermal power plant; and provides resource development and environmental protection engineering services. Further, the company offers zinc and lead ingots, zinc sulfate, zinc raw materials, and sulfuric acid and plaster products; chemical products; optical crystals, scintillators, and radiation detectors; rolled copper foil products. Additionally, it engages in the mechatronics and corrosion prevention businesses; handling wires and cables activities; and provision of engineering services and IT systems. The company was formerly known as Mitsui Mining & Smelting Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Mitsui Kinzoku Company, Limited in October 2025. Mitsui Mining & Smelting Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1950 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR (MMSMY) currently trades at $28.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $27.63, implying the stock looks roughly 4.3% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 25 models at a data quality of 94/100, which puts the evidence level at high.
Scenario range: $14.49 (bear) to $39.34 (bull), the price of $28.83 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥804B in FY2026 versus ¥633B in FY2022, a compound +6.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥96.8B in FY2026, compounding +16.7%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $17.2B · P/E ratio 30.1 · P/S ratio 3.63 · EPS (TTM) $1.99 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 12.0% · Return on equity 24.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 59% below its 52-week high and 107% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 15% fair-value upside, at −4%, MMSMY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $14.49Fair Value $27.63Bull $39.34
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.83/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.0% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+17.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+16.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.17% vs 18%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 17%
2026 sits 272% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +13.6% a year for the price and +2.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (20 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
Compare Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 380 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)25% · Top 25%
Return on assets12% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)12% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)27% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth16% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.20× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MMSMY
Frequently asked questions
Is Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd (MMSMY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $27.63 versus a price of $28.83, about −4% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of MMSMY?
Our model-based fair value for Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR is $27.63 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $28.83.
What is the quality score of MMSMY?
Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd (MMSMY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $27.63 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario $14.49, optimistic scenario $39.34. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $27.63, about −4% upside versus a price of $28.83 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $14.49, optimistic scenario $39.34. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd (MMSMY)?
Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥759B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.42% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd (MMSMY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +16.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MMSMY use?
Our models discount Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR at 10.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.44, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR that is +16.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd (MMSMY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR grew +9.0 % a year. The price currently implies +16.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd (MMSMY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR (+16.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd (MMSMY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.12 %: that much free cash flow Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd (MMSMY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR it is $27.63 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $28.83. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, MMSMY trades above its calculated fair value: price $28.83, fair value $27.63, a gap of about −4% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MMSMY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($28.83); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($27.63). For Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR the two are $1.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR at about $17.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $28.83; our models calculate a fair value of $27.63 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MMSMY?
Our models span a range for Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $14.49, base $27.63, optimistic $39.34 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $28.83). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MMSMY?
Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $27.63 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 6.6, P/S 3.6, EV/EBITDA 17.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd (MMSMY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 24.7%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 71/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MMSMY from its 52-week high?
Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR trades at $28.83, about 59% below its 52-week high of $69.55 and 107% above the low of $13.90 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $27.63 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, CITIC Limited, Poste Italiane S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $28.83, calculated fair value $27.63 (−4%), Quality Score 71/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MMSMY calculated?
We run Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $27.63, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd (MMSMY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $28.83. Our model-based fair value is $27.63, about −4% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($14.49 to $39.34). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Where does the earnings growth of Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd (MMSMY) come from?
Earnings per share at Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR grew +14.8 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.2 %, EBIT margin +4.3 %, tax rate +0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd (MMSMY)?
The market capitalisation of Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR is $17.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd (MMSMY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR is 3.63 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd (MMSMY)?
Earnings per share at Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR are $1.99 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 30.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd (MMSMY)?
The dividend yield of Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR is 0.4% (payout 6.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd (MMSMY)?
The net margin of Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR is 12.0% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd (MMSMY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR is 24.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd (MMSMY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR is 9.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd (MMSMY)?
The operating margin of Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR is 27.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd (MMSMY)?
Revenue at Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR is growing +16.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd (MMSMY)?
Earnings per share at Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR are growing +237% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd (MMSMY) carry?
The net debt of Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd ADR is ¥57.6B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 1.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026