MediciNova Inc (MNOV) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of MediciNova Inc $0.55, price $2.58, upside -78.7%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.13 – $4.42 · fair‑value band $0.3600 – $0.6900 · the $2.58 price screens above the $0.5500 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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MediciNova, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing novel and small molecule therapeutics for the treatment of serious diseases with unmet medical needs in the United States.
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MediciNova, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing novel and small molecule therapeutics for the treatment of serious diseases with unmet medical needs in the United States. It develops MN-166 (ibudilast), an oral anti-inflammatory and neuroprotective agent in Phase 2 clinical trial for treating neurological and other disorders, such as progressive multiple sclerosis, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, chemotherapy-induced peripheral neuropathy, degenerative cervical myelopathy, and glioblastoma, as well as prevention of acute respiratory distress syndrome. The company is also developing MN-001 (tipelukast), an orally bioavailable small molecule compound in Phase 2 clinical trial to treat fibrotic and other metabolic disorders, including nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and hypertriglycedemia. MediciNova, Inc. was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in La Jolla, California.
Stock analysis
MediciNova Inc (MNOV) currently trades at $2.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.5500, implying the stock looks roughly 369.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $0.3600 (bear) to $0.6900 (bull), the price of $2.58 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
MediciNova Inc reported revenue of $410K in FY2025 versus $4.0M in FY2021, a compound −43.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$12.0M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $127M · EPS (TTM) $−0.2300 · Return on equity −26.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −19.6% · Operating margin −1,517% · Revenue (TTM) $597K · Free cash flow −$9.8M · Net cash $30.6M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 119% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at −79%, MNOV screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.3600Fair Value $0.5500Bull $0.6900
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−36.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.9%
’04
’05
’07
’12
’13
’20
’21
’23
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−354.5% (2020) → −3,242.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 658 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/5 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Below median
Fair Value upside−79% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−17% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.56× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 23
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MediciNova Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MNOV
Frequently asked questions
Is MediciNova Inc (MNOV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.5500 versus a price of $2.58, about −79% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MNOV?
Our model-based fair value for MediciNova Inc is $0.5500 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.58.
What is the quality score of MNOV?
MediciNova Inc has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MediciNova Inc (MNOV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.5500 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.3600, optimistic scenario $0.6900. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MediciNova Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.5500, about −79% upside versus a price of $2.58 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.3600, optimistic scenario $0.6900. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MediciNova Inc (MNOV)?
MediciNova Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $597K (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of MediciNova Inc (MNOV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MediciNova Inc it is $0.5500 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $2.58. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MediciNova Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, MNOV trades above its calculated fair value: price $2.58, fair value $0.5500, a gap of about −79% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MNOV?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.58); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.5500). For MediciNova Inc the two are $2.03 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MediciNova Inc worth?
The market values MediciNova Inc at about $127M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $2.58; our models calculate a fair value of $0.5500 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MNOV?
Our models span a range for MediciNova Inc: cautious scenario $0.3600, base $0.5500, optimistic $0.6900 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $2.58). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of MediciNova Inc (MNOV)?
Balance-sheet figures for MediciNova Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −26.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MNOV from its 52-week high?
MediciNova Inc trades at $2.58, about 25% below its 52-week high of $3.45 and 119% above the low of $1.18 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.5500 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MediciNova Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, CSL Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MediciNova Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $2.58, calculated fair value $0.5500 (−79%), Quality Score 43/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MNOV calculated?
We run MediciNova Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.5500, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. MediciNova Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MediciNova Inc (MNOV)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was $2.58. Our model-based fair value is $0.5500, about −79% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MediciNova Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.6900). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.3600 to $0.6900) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of MediciNova Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of MediciNova Inc (MNOV)?
The market capitalisation of MediciNova Inc is $127M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of MediciNova Inc (MNOV)?
Earnings per share at MediciNova Inc are $−0.2300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of MediciNova Inc (MNOV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MediciNova Inc is −26.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MediciNova Inc (MNOV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MediciNova Inc is −19.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MediciNova Inc (MNOV)?
The operating margin of MediciNova Inc is −1,517% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much free cash flow does MediciNova Inc (MNOV) generate?
The free cash flow of MediciNova Inc is −$9.8M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does MediciNova Inc (MNOV) hold?
MediciNova Inc holds more cash than debt, $30.6M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026