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MediciNova Inc (MNOV) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of MediciNova Inc stock $0.97, price $1.47, that is 34.0% below the price, quality 43 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Healthcare US

MI MediciNova Inc logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

MediciNova Inc

MNOV · US
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 34% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Ranks above peers (5/8)
Quality 43/100
Fair value $0.9700 · Overvalued
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −36.6 %/yr in USD)
Negative free cash flow
Narrow moat 6/100 · thin data
Thin data
Estimate
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$4.42 $1.13 Fair Value $0.9700 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.13 – $4.42 · fair‑value band $0.7300 – $1.22 · the $1.47 price screens above the $0.9700 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

MediciNova, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing novel and small molecule therapeutics for the treatment of serious diseases with unmet medical needs in the United States.

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It develops MN-166 (ibudilast), an oral anti-inflammatory and neuroprotective agent in Phase 2 clinical trial for treating neurological and other disorders, such as progressive multiple sclerosis, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, chemotherapy-induced peripheral neuropathy, degenerative cervical myelopathy, and glioblastoma, as well as prevention of acute respiratory distress syndrome.

The company is also developing MN-001 (tipelukast), an orally bioavailable small molecule compound in Phase 2 clinical trial to treat fibrotic and other metabolic disorders, including nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and hypertriglycedemia.

MediciNova, Inc. was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in La Jolla, California.

Stock analysis

MediciNova Inc (MNOV) currently trades at $1.47, while our estimate is $0.9700, 34% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: $0.7300 (bear) to $1.22 (bull), the price of $1.47 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

MediciNova Inc reported revenue of $410K in FY2025 versus $4.0M in FY2021, a compound −43.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$12.0M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $72.4M Micro · P/S ratio 75.4 · EPS (TTM) $−0.2100 · Return on equity −25.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −19.6% (5-year average) · Operating margin −554% · Revenue (TTM) $920K · Revenue growth (YoY) +241%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 6 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 57% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −6% fair-value upside, at −34%, MNOV screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear $0.7300 Fair Value $0.9700 Bull $1.22
Price $1.47 · Downside -34.0%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 43/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 27
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 7
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 75
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 46
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 50
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 25
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 80
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.

  • Sale3D Opportunity Master FundFormerly 10% Owner640,000 shares at $2.70$1.7MSep 25, 2026

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 9, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−36.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.9%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−354.5% (2020) → −3,242.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

MNOV screens overvalued: fair value 34% below the price. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 867 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/6 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 43 · Above median
Fair Value upside −34.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −26.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 240.6% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.74× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 78.61× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 19

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $919.96 $1,275 +39% vs MNOV
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,468,000 KRW 1,661,000 KRW +13% vs MNOV
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $550.87 $601.80 +9% vs MNOV
Genmab A/S GMAB kr 3,661 kr 3,880 +6% vs MNOV
argenx SE ARGX $962.27 $908.40 −6% vs MNOV
CSL Limited CSL A$200.73 A$181.40 −10% vs MNOV
BeOne Medicines AG 6160 HK$252.20 HK$152.80 −39% vs MNOV
Roivant Sciences Ltd ROIV $40.67 $17.39 −57% vs MNOV
Celltrion, Inc 068270 203,000 KRW 74,945 KRW −63% vs MNOV
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $68.77 $19.01 −72% vs MNOV

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MediciNova Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MediciNova Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MNOV

Frequently asked questions

Is MediciNova Inc (MNOV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is $0.9700 versus a price of $1.47, about 34% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MNOV?
Our estimate for MediciNova Inc is $0.9700 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.47.
What is the quality score of MNOV?
MediciNova Inc has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MediciNova Inc (MNOV)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of $0.9700 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario $0.7300, optimistic scenario $1.22. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the MediciNova Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at $0.9700, about 34% lower versus a price of $1.47 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.7300, optimistic scenario $1.22. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MediciNova Inc (MNOV)?
MediciNova Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $920K (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of MediciNova Inc (MNOV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MediciNova Inc it is $0.9700 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of $1.47.
Is MediciNova Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, MNOV trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.47, fair value $0.9700, a gap of about −34% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MNOV?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.47); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.9700). For MediciNova Inc the two are $0.5000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MediciNova Inc worth?
The market values MediciNova Inc at about $72.4M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is $1.47; our models calculate a fair value of $0.9700 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MNOV?
Our models span a range for MediciNova Inc: cautious scenario $0.7300, base $0.9700, optimistic $1.22 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price $1.47). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of MediciNova Inc (MNOV)?
Balance-sheet figures for MediciNova Inc (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −25.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MNOV from its 52-week high?
MediciNova Inc trades at $1.47, about 57% below its 52-week high of $3.45 and 20% above the low of $1.23 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.9700 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MediciNova Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, CSL Limited, argenx SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MediciNova Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price $1.47, calculated fair value $0.9700 (−34%), Quality Score 43/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.7% above its aggregate fair value. MediciNova Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MediciNova Inc (MNOV)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was $1.47. Our estimate is $0.9700, about 34% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MediciNova Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.22). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of MediciNova Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of MediciNova Inc (MNOV)?
The market capitalisation of MediciNova Inc is $72.4M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MediciNova Inc (MNOV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MediciNova Inc is 75.4 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MediciNova Inc (MNOV)?
Earnings per share at MediciNova Inc are $−0.2100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of MediciNova Inc (MNOV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MediciNova Inc is −25.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MediciNova Inc (MNOV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MediciNova Inc is −19.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MediciNova Inc (MNOV)?
The operating margin of MediciNova Inc is −554% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MediciNova Inc (MNOV)?
Revenue at MediciNova Inc is growing +241% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does MediciNova Inc (MNOV) generate?
The free cash flow of MediciNova Inc is −$9.8M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does MediciNova Inc (MNOV) hold?
MediciNova Inc holds more cash than debt, $30.6M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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