Macquarie Group (MQG) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · AU · Market cap A$98.5B
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 10 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Share price +5.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 50% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$165.75). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$125.41 – A$267.25 · fair‑value band A$99.45 – A$165.75 · the A$267.25 price screens above the A$132.60 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Macquarie Group (MQG) currently trades at A$267.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$132.60, implying the stock looks roughly 50.4% overvalued today. We read business quality at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Macquarie Group generated revenue of A$17.8B at a net margin of 21.1%. Revenue grew 5.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.2%. Net debt stands at A$68.9B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$99.45 (bear case) to A$165.75 (bull case); at A$267.25, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at -50%, MQG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 10 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (A$252.37) versus Asset-Based (A$63.46). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Macquarie Group Limited provides diversified financial services in Australia, New Zealand the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. It operates through four segments: Macquarie Asset Management (MAM); Banking and Financial Services (BFS); Commodities and Global Markets (CGM); and Macquarie Capital.
Full company description
Macquarie Group Limited provides diversified financial services in Australia, New Zealand the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. It operates through four segments: Macquarie Asset Management (MAM); Banking and Financial Services (BFS); Commodities and Global Markets (CGM); and Macquarie Capital. The MAM segment provides investment solutions to clients across various capabilities, including real assets, real estate, credit, equities and multi-asset and secondaries. The BFS segment offers personal banking products comprising home loans, car loans, transaction and savings accounts, and credit cards; wealth management products, such as wrap platform and cash management, financial advisory, and private banking services, as well as investment and superannuation products. It also provides deposit, lending, and payment solutions and services to business clients. The CGM segment provides capital and financing, risk management, and physical execution and logistics solutions across power, gas, emissions, agriculture, oil, and resources sectors; market access to corporate and institutional clients; and specialist finance and asset management solutions. The Macquarie Capital segment offers advisory and capital raising services. This segment is also involved in specialist investing across private credit, private equity, real estate, growth equity, venture capital, and infrastructure and energy projects and companies; and brokerage business, including equity research, sales, execution capabilities, and corporate access. Macquarie Group Limited was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Sydney, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Macquarie Group reported revenue of A$19.6B in FY2026 versus A$16.4B in FY2022, a compound +4.6%/yr. Reported net income was A$4.8B in FY2026, compounding +0.7%/yr from FY2022.
MQG screens 50% overvalued. Compare with Huatai Securities Co →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Is Macquarie Small Cap Growth Y (WSCYX) a Strong Mutual Fund Pick Right Now?
- FIBRA Macquarie México Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results
- Ambition and caution as Macquarie turns to a safe pair of hands
- Macquarie Still Sees Bank of Canada Hiking Rate in October as Central Bank Embraces Optimism
Peer Group
Capital Markets · 424 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Huatai Securities Co HTSC | $0.2700 | $0.0400 | -85% |
| Mirae Asset Securities Co 006800 | 38,750 KRW | 31,645 KRW | -18% |
| Meritz Financial Group 138040 | 117,000 KRW | 87,706 KRW | -25% |
| Korea Investment Holdings 071050 | 239,000 KRW | 318,825 KRW | +33% |
| NH Investment & Securities Co 005940 | 31,000 KRW | 37,133 KRW | +20% |
| Samsung Securities Co 016360 | 107,700 KRW | 126,487 KRW | +17% |
| Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited MOTILALOFS | ₹967.00 | ₹299.65 | -69% |
| Kiwoom Securities Co 039490 | 322,000 KRW | 358,091 KRW | +11% |
| SSI Securities Corporation SSI | 24,250 VND | 28,021 VND | +16% |
| Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos S.A BYMA | 313.75 ARS | 120.22 ARS | -62% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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