Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd (601211) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd stock ¥18.02, price ¥16.67, upside +8.1%, quality 44 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥12.73 – ¥22.29 · fair‑value band ¥16.52 – ¥21.87 · the ¥16.67 price screens below the ¥18.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Guotai Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. provides wealth management, investment banking, institutional and trading, and investment management services in Mainland China, Hong Kong, and internationally.
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It offers securities and futures brokerage, financial products, investment advisory, stock pledging, margin financing and securities lending, and agreed securities repurchase and other services; and sponsorship, equity and debt underwriting, structured debt financing, M&A financial advisory services, and diversified corporate solutions to corporate and government clients.
The company also provides research and institutional brokerage services, such as prime brokers, seat leasing, custody and outsourcing, and QFII and other services to institutional clients; trading and investment services, including investment transactions in stocks, fixed income, foreign exchange, large commodities, and their derivative financial instruments, as well as integrated financial solutions for clients' investment, financing, and risk management; and equity investment services.
In addition, it offers asset and fund management services to institutions and individuals; and brokerage, research, leasing, and corporate financing services; logistics and catering management; and information consulting services.
Further, the company engages in the real estate and property management; warehousing; investment and corporate management consulting; venture capital investment and management; industrial investment; administrative management; foreign exchange dealing; and securities trading activities.
The company was formerly known as Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Guotai Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. in April 2025. The company was founded in 1992 and is based in Shanghai, China.
Stock analysis
Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd (601211) currently trades at ¥16.67, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥18.02, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 7.5%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥25.60 per share, and 3 of the 6 models we run sit above the ¥16.67 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥8.96, and 3 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥16.52 (bear) to ¥21.87 (bull), the price of ¥16.67 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd reported revenue of 97.8B CNY in FY2025 versus 52.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound +16.9%/yr. Reported net income was 27.8B CNY in FY2025, compounding +16.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 263B CNY (≈ $39.4B) Large · P/E ratio 9.1 · P/S ratio 3.03 · EPS (TTM) ¥1.75 · Dividend yield 3.9% · Net margin 37.3% · Return on equity 9.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 66 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at 8%, 601211 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥16.52Fair Value ¥18.02Bull¥21.87
Price ¥16.67 · Upside +8.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.9312 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income¥19.44¥21.20¥25.7376
Gordon GGM¥5.05¥10.83¥17.8266
DDM Multi-Stage¥5.05¥8.96¥11.3166
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM¥5.05¥10.83¥17.8266
DDM Multi-Stage¥5.05¥8.96¥11.3166
Multiples
P/E Multiple¥19.20¥25.60¥32.0063
P/B Multiple¥19.71¥26.27¥32.8455
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)¥10.95¥14.68¥21.9054
Economic Profit
Residual Income¥19.44¥21.20¥25.7376
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+75.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.0% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+12.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8.2% vs 3.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.34% → 50%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−26.7%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −27.9% a year for the price and +7.5% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Potential simplification of the group structure could strengthen domestic capital markets focus, yet thin public data and low evidence leave overall business quality difficult to judge reliably.
Main risk: Ongoing regulatory penalties and compliance investigations in the Hong Kong subsidiary could raise operating costs and restrict cross-border client activities or licences.
Bull case: By strengthening compliance frameworks and leveraging its scale after consolidation the firm could secure broader regulatory approvals and expand domestic capital markets activities profitably.
Bear case: Persistent regulatory restrictions or refinancing pressures in the international operations could force a sharper focus on domestic activities and limit overall growth options.
Guotai Haitong has cleared the Shanghai SASAC hurdle for privatizing its Hong Kong-listed international subsidiary, but NDRC approval is still pending. This step could simplify the group structure and redirect resources toward domestic capital markets. Will the remaining regulatory process finish without setbacks and strengthen focus, or will it highlight execution risks in the international arm?
Compare Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 384 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+8.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.3% · Below median
Return on assets1.3% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)37.3% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)48.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)112.1% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.17× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/601211
Frequently asked questions
Is Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd (601211) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥18.02 versus a price of ¥16.67, about +8% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 601211?
Our model-based fair value for Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd is ¥18.02 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥16.67.
What is the quality score of 601211?
Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd (601211)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥18.02 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥16.52, optimistic scenario ¥21.87. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥18.02, about +8% upside versus a price of ¥16.67 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario ¥16.52, optimistic scenario ¥21.87. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd (601211)?
Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 86.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 3.90% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd (601211)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -26.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.4 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 601211 use?
Our models discount Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.17, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd that is -26.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd (601211) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd grew +17.4 % a year. The price currently implies -26.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd (601211) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd (-26.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd (601211)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 32.39 %: that much free cash flow Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd (601211)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd it is ¥18.02 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of ¥16.67. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, 601211 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥16.67, fair value ¥18.02, a gap of about +8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 601211?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥16.67); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥18.02). For Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd the two are ¥1.35 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd worth?
The market values Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd at about 263B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is ¥16.67; our models calculate a fair value of ¥18.02 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 601211?
Our models span a range for Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥16.52, base ¥18.02, optimistic ¥21.87 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price ¥16.67). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 601211?
Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.1 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥18.02 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 14.5. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 3.0, EV/EBITDA 3.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd (601211)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 9.3%, debt of 0.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 601211 from its 52-week high?
Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd trades at ¥16.67, about 25% below its 52-week high of ¥22.29 and 11% above the low of ¥14.98 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥18.02 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price ¥16.67, calculated fair value ¥18.02 (+8%), Quality Score 44/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 601211 calculated?
We run Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥18.02, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd currently trades 7% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd (601211)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was ¥16.67. Our model-based fair value is ¥18.02, about +8% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd (601211) come from?
Earnings per share at Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd grew −0.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.0 %, EBIT margin −4.3 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd (601211)?
The market capitalisation of Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd is 263B CNY (≈ $39.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd (601211)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd is 3.03 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd (601211)?
Earnings per share at Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd are ¥1.75 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd (601211)?
The dividend yield of Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd is 3.9% (payout 37.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd (601211)?
The net margin of Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd is 37.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd (601211)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd is 9.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd (601211)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd is 1.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd (601211)?
The operating margin of Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd is 48.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd (601211)?
Revenue at Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd is growing +112% versus a year earlier (3y avg +29.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd (601211)?
Earnings per share at Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd are growing +317% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd (601211) carry?
The net debt of Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd is 916B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 10.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026