H.U. Group Holdings Inc (MRCHF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of H.U. Group Holdings Inc $13.28, price $23.35, upside -43.1%, quality 66 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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H.U. Group Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates healthcare business in Japan, the United States, Europe, and internationally.
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H.U. Group Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates healthcare business in Japan, the United States, Europe, and internationally. The Lab Testing and Its Related Services segment provides general testing services to medical institutions that include esoteric testing, such as genetic and oncology testing; companion diagnostics-related tests for cancer treatment; omics analysis comprising whole genome sequencing and proteome analysis; comprehensive support for clinical trials and research, including pre-trial setup work, specimen collection and transport, measuring, result reports, and data management, as well as SaaS for general practitioners and personal health records. Its In-Vitro Diagnostics segment provides Lumipulse system products, an automated chemiluminescence enzyme immunoassay system that offers reagents; testing services for neurodegenerative diseases; and rapid diagnostics kit for infectious diseases comprising influenza and COVID-19, as well as cerebrospinal fluid reagent. This segment also develops blood-based reagents and biomarkers specifically for neurodegenerative diseases, such as Alzheimer's. The Healthcare-related Services segment offers in-house sterilization for central supply rooms in hospitals and external sterilization at sterilization centers; operating room support, endoscopy room support, medical equipment maintenance and inspection, and logistics management and transportation services; support for important tasks related to hospital administration work, including the sale of medical equipment, supplies, and consumables related to central supply rooms and operating rooms; bulk rentals of nursing care equipment, supplying equipment, including wheelchairs and nursing beds; and home medical care and nursing services. The company was formerly known as Miraca Holdings Inc. and changed its name to H.U. Group Holdings, Inc. in July 2020. H.U. Group Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 1950 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
H.U. Group Holdings Inc (MRCHF) currently trades at $23.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.28, implying the stock looks roughly 75.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $22.42 per share, and 6 of the 22 models we run sit above the $23.35 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $4.50, and 16 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $9.96 (bear) to $16.60 (bull), the price of $23.35 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
H.U. Group Holdings Inc reported revenue of ¥249B in FY2026 versus ¥273B in FY2022, a compound −2.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥6.9B in FY2026, compounding −30.6%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $1.3B · P/E ratio 30.7 · P/S ratio 0.85 · EPS (TTM) $0.7600 · Net margin 2.8% · Return on equity 4.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.4% · Operating margin 1.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at −43%, MRCHF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $9.96Fair Value $13.28Bull $16.60
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3685 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.57/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.6% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−21.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−21.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−22% vs −1%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−0.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.5% a year for the price and +1.8% for the forecasts.
Compare H.U. Group Holdings Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Diagnostics & Research · 141 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−43% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Above median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.26× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Diagnostics & Research median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)30.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.51× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.84× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF0.1× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA7.4× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 25
PAST (return on equity)20· sector 9
HEALTH (low debt)87· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 30
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "H.U. Group Holdings Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MRCHF
Frequently asked questions
Is H.U. Group Holdings Inc (MRCHF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $13.28 versus a price of $23.35, about −43% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MRCHF?
Our model-based fair value for H.U. Group Holdings Inc is $13.28 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $23.35.
What is the quality score of MRCHF?
H.U. Group Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for H.U. Group Holdings Inc (MRCHF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $13.28 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.96, optimistic scenario $16.60. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the H.U. Group Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $13.28, about −43% upside versus a price of $23.35 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $9.96, optimistic scenario $16.60. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of H.U. Group Holdings Inc (MRCHF)?
H.U. Group Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥247B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into H.U. Group Holdings Inc (MRCHF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, H.U. Group Holdings Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -0.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.2 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MRCHF use?
Our models discount H.U. Group Holdings Inc at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.30, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For H.U. Group Holdings Inc that is -0.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has H.U. Group Holdings Inc (MRCHF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at H.U. Group Holdings Inc grew +2.2 % a year. The price currently implies -0.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of H.U. Group Holdings Inc (MRCHF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into H.U. Group Holdings Inc (-0.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of H.U. Group Holdings Inc (MRCHF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.30 %: that much free cash flow H.U. Group Holdings Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of H.U. Group Holdings Inc (MRCHF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For H.U. Group Holdings Inc it is $13.28 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $23.35. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is H.U. Group Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, MRCHF trades above its calculated fair value: price $23.35, fair value $13.28, a gap of about −43% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MRCHF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($23.35); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($13.28). For H.U. Group Holdings Inc the two are $10.07 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is H.U. Group Holdings Inc worth?
The market values H.U. Group Holdings Inc at about $1.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $23.35; our models calculate a fair value of $13.28 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MRCHF?
Our models span a range for H.U. Group Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $9.96, base $13.28, optimistic $16.60 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $23.35). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MRCHF?
H.U. Group Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.7 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $13.28 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.5, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 7.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of H.U. Group Holdings Inc (MRCHF)?
Balance-sheet figures for H.U. Group Holdings Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 4.9%, debt of 0.26 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MRCHF from its 52-week high?
H.U. Group Holdings Inc trades at $23.35, about 11% below its 52-week high of $26.10 and 26% above the low of $18.60 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $13.28 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to H.U. Group Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc, Danaher Corporation, WuXi AppTec Co, Lonza Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is H.U. Group Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $23.35, calculated fair value $13.28 (−43%), Quality Score 66/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MRCHF calculated?
We run H.U. Group Holdings Inc through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $13.28, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. H.U. Group Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of H.U. Group Holdings Inc (MRCHF)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $23.35. Our model-based fair value is $13.28, about −43% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with H.U. Group Holdings Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($16.60). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of H.U. Group Holdings Inc (MRCHF) come from?
Earnings per share at H.U. Group Holdings Inc grew −5.2 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.2 %, EBIT margin −20.5 %, tax rate +3.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +12.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of H.U. Group Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of H.U. Group Holdings Inc (MRCHF)?
The market capitalisation of H.U. Group Holdings Inc is $1.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of H.U. Group Holdings Inc (MRCHF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of H.U. Group Holdings Inc is 0.85 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of H.U. Group Holdings Inc (MRCHF)?
Earnings per share at H.U. Group Holdings Inc are $0.7600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 30.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of H.U. Group Holdings Inc (MRCHF)?
The net margin of H.U. Group Holdings Inc is 2.8% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of H.U. Group Holdings Inc (MRCHF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of H.U. Group Holdings Inc is 4.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of H.U. Group Holdings Inc (MRCHF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of H.U. Group Holdings Inc is 5.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of H.U. Group Holdings Inc (MRCHF)?
The operating margin of H.U. Group Holdings Inc is 1.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at H.U. Group Holdings Inc (MRCHF)?
Revenue at H.U. Group Holdings Inc is growing −0.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at H.U. Group Holdings Inc (MRCHF)?
Earnings per share at H.U. Group Holdings Inc are growing +52.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does H.U. Group Holdings Inc (MRCHF) carry?
The net debt of H.U. Group Holdings Inc is ¥26.4B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 1.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026