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Merck & Co (MRCK34) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Merck & Co BRL 57.08, price BRL 95.05, upside -40.0%, quality 72 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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MC
Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
Merck & Co
MRCK34 · SAStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value R$57.08 · Strongly overvalued (−40.0%)
✓Quality 72/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +6.3 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 13.6% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓3.5% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Wide moat 77/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$42.09 – R$101.37 · fair‑value band R$34.20 – R$85.95 · the R$95.05 price screens above the R$57.08 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
Merck & Co., Inc. operates as a healthcare company worldwide.
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Merck & Co., Inc. operates as a healthcare company worldwide. It offers human health pharmaceutical for various areas under the Keytruda, Keytruda Qlex, Welireg, Gardasil, ProQuad, M-M-R II, Varivax, Vaxneuvance, Capvaxive, RotaTeq, Pneumovax 23, Bridion, Prevymis, Dificid, Zerbaxa, Winrevair, Adempas/ Verquvo, Ohtuvayre, Lagevrio, Isentress/Isentress HD, Delstrigo, Pifeltro, Belsomra, Januvia, and Janumet brands. The company also provides veterinary pharmaceuticals, vaccines and health management solutions and services, such as livestock products under the Nuflor, Bovilis/Vista, Bovilis Cryptium, Banamine, Estrumate, Matrix, Resflor, Zuprevo, Revalor, Safe-Guard, M+Pac, Porcilis, Circumvent, Nobilis/Innovax, Paracox and Coccivac, Exzolt, Slice, Imvixa, Clynav, Aquavac/Norvax, Aquaflor, Flexolt brands; Allflex Livestock Intelligence solutions; and companion animal products under the Bravecto One-Month, Bravecto Injectable/Quantum, Bravecto TriUNO, Bravecto Plus, Sentinel Spectrum, Sentinel Flavor Tabs, Numelvi, Optimmune, Nobivac NXT, GilvetMab, Otomax, Mometamax, Mometamax Ultra, Posatex, Caninsulin/Vetsulin, Panacur, Safeguard, Regumate, Prestige, Scalibor/Exspot, Sure Petcare, and Home Again brands. It has development and commercialization agreement for three of Daiichi Sankyo's deruxtecan ADC candidates; AstraZeneca PLC to co-development and co-commercialize AstraZeneca's Lynparza products for multiple cancer types; licensed to develop, manufacture and commercialize LM-299, a novel investigational PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody from LaNova; and collaboration agreement with Eisai Co., Ltd., Bayer AG, and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics LP, as well Moderna, Inc. Merck & Co., Inc. has strategic collaboration with Infinimmune, Inc. to discover and develop antibodies against multiple therapeutic targets. The company was founded in 1891 and is headquartered in Rahway, New Jersey.
Stock analysis
Merck & Co (MRCK34) currently trades at R$95.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$57.08, 40.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of R$87.88 per share, and 1 of the 25 models we run sit above the R$95.05 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$9.32, and 24 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R$34.20 (bear) to R$85.95 (bull), the price of R$95.05 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Merck & Co reported revenue of $65.0B in FY2025 versus $48.7B in FY2021, a compound +7.5%/yr. Reported net income was $18.3B in FY2025, compounding +8.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$1.6T (≈ $304B) · P/E ratio 41.3 · P/S ratio 11.6 · EPS (TTM) R$2.30 · Dividend yield 3.5% · Net margin 28.1% · Return on equity 18.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 74% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at −40%, MRCK34 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$34.20
Fair Value R$57.08
Bull R$85.95
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
R$32.51
R$53.36
R$85.20
79
Growth DCF
R$33.75
R$53.02
R$81.09
77
Owner Earnings
R$47.09
R$75.35
R$118.51
75
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
R$32.51
R$53.36
R$85.20
79
Owner Earnings
R$47.09
R$75.35
R$118.51
75
5Y Revenue Exit
R$27.93
R$47.20
R$71.09
72
5Y EBITDA Exit
R$44.46
R$77.03
R$113.92
74
5Y P/E Exit
R$51.54
R$89.79
R$128.58
70
10Y Revenue Exit
R$28.10
R$46.03
R$68.61
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
R$39.83
R$66.81
R$100.96
67
10Y P/E Exit
R$44.37
R$75.70
R$112.03
63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
R$32.81
R$83.78
R$109.00
65
PEG = 1.0
R$15.64
R$22.34
R$29.04
57
EPV
R$41.97
R$50.87
R$58.79
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
R$20.79
R$42.10
R$76.35
65
DDM Multi-Stage
R$20.79
R$32.32
R$45.35
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
R$79.61
R$106.14
R$132.68
63
P/S Multiple
R$45.10
R$60.14
R$75.17
58
P/B Multiple
R$46.93
R$62.57
R$78.21
55
EV/EBIT
R$63.00
R$86.83
R$110.66
66
EV/EBITDA
R$58.83
R$81.27
R$103.72
67
EV/Revenue
R$27.58
R$43.04
R$58.51
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
R$6.95
R$9.32
R$13.90
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
R$33.75
R$53.02
R$81.09
77
Rev-Margin DCF
R$27.93
R$47.55
R$69.03
72
Economic Profit
Residual Income
R$27.71
R$33.73
R$56.94
74
ROIC Compounder
R$44.66
R$57.87
R$72.63
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
R$61.52
R$87.88
R$114.25
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
72/100
Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 83
Profitability
75
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
44
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
65
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
68
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
71
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
78
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
79
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
93
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
96
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
82/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.1% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+17.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.5%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 33%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−9.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −11.9% a year for the price and +1.6% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+2.8%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+4.8%
Projected 2028 (sales)+4.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)+4.1%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.7%
MRCK34 screens overvalued: fair value 40% below the price. Compare with Eli Lilly and Company →
Recent news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
- Merck's Tulisokibart Data From Hidradenitis Suppurativa Trial Looks Solid, UBS Securities Says
- Merck's Tulisokibart Meets Endpoints in Hidradenitis Suppurativa Study
- Is A Cancer Vaccine Coming? Moderna, Merck Boosted By The Buzz
- Merck to Hold Third-Quarter 2026 Sales and Earnings Conference Call Oct. 29
Compare Merck & Co with another stock
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Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Drug Manufacturers - General stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Lilly and Company LLY | $1,157 | $749.08 | −35% |
| Johnson & Johnson, JNJ | $264.74 | $168.85 | −36% |
| AbbVie Inc ABBV | $261.59 | $259.62 | −1% |
| Roche Holding RO | CHF 375.20 | CHF 326.56 | −13% |
| Novartis AG NOVN | CHF 118.06 | CHF 121.90 | +3% |
| Amgen Inc AMGN | $421.51 | $463.66 | +10% |
| Gilead Sciences, Inc GILD | $149.05 | $198.77 | +33% |
| Pfizer Inc PFE | $28.12 | $24.87 | −12% |
| Bristol-Myers Squibb Company BMY | $62.40 | $75.96 | +22% |
| Sanofi SNY | $41.23 | $70.59 | +71% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Merck & Co (MRCK34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$57.08 versus a price of R$95.05, about −40% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MRCK34?
Our model-based fair value for Merck & Co is R$57.08 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$95.05.
What is the quality score of MRCK34?
Merck & Co has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Merck & Co (MRCK34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$57.08 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$34.20, optimistic scenario R$85.95. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Merck & Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$57.08, about −40% upside versus a price of R$95.05 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$34.20, optimistic scenario R$85.95. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Merck & Co (MRCK34)?
Merck & Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $65.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Merck & Co pay a dividend?
Merck & Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.45% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Merck & Co (MRCK34)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Merck & Co would have to grow free cash flow by -9.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.3 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MRCK34 use?
Our models discount Merck & Co at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.21, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Merck & Co that is -9.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Merck & Co (MRCK34) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Merck & Co grew +6.3 % a year. The price currently implies -9.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Merck & Co (MRCK34) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Merck & Co (-9.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Merck & Co (MRCK34)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 27.44 %: that much free cash flow Merck & Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Merck & Co (MRCK34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Merck & Co it is R$57.08 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of R$95.05. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Merck & Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, MRCK34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$95.05, fair value R$57.08, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MRCK34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$95.05); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$57.08). For Merck & Co the two are R$37.97 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Merck & Co worth?
The market values Merck & Co at about R$1.6T (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is R$95.05; our models calculate a fair value of R$57.08 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MRCK34?
Our models span a range for Merck & Co: cautious scenario R$34.20, base R$57.08, optimistic R$85.95 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price R$95.05). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is MRCK34 from its 52-week high?
Merck & Co trades at R$95.05, about 6% below its 52-week high of R$101.37 and 74% above the low of R$54.66 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$57.08 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Merck & Co?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Eli Lilly and Company, Johnson & Johnson,, AbbVie Inc, Roche Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Merck & Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price R$95.05, calculated fair value R$57.08 (−40%), Quality Score 72/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MRCK34 calculated?
We run Merck & Co through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$57.08, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Merck & Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Merck & Co (MRCK34)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R$95.05. Our model-based fair value is R$57.08, about −40% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Merck & Co right now?
A high-quality business (quality 72/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$85.95). The favourable scenario is already priced in. A fairly wide model range (R$34.20 to R$85.95) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Merck & Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Merck & Co (MRCK34)?
The market capitalisation of Merck & Co is R$1.6T (≈ $304B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Merck & Co (MRCK34)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Merck & Co is 41.3. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Merck & Co (MRCK34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Merck & Co is 11.6 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Merck & Co (MRCK34)?
Earnings per share at Merck & Co are R$2.30 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 41.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Merck & Co (MRCK34)?
The dividend yield of Merck & Co is 3.5% (payout 143%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Merck & Co (MRCK34)?
The net margin of Merck & Co is 28.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Merck & Co (MRCK34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Merck & Co is 18.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Merck & Co (MRCK34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Merck & Co is 12.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Merck & Co (MRCK34)?
The operating margin of Merck & Co is 38.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Merck & Co (MRCK34)?
Revenue at Merck & Co is growing +4.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Merck & Co (MRCK34)?
Earnings per share at Merck & Co are growing −19.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Merck & Co (MRCK34) carry?
The net debt of Merck & Co is $34.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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