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Super Micro Computer, Inc. (MS51) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Super Micro Computer, Inc. €33.61, price €38.36, upside -12.4%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Technology · DE · Home US

SM Some data Sep 29, 2026

Super Micro Computer, Inc.

MS51 · XETRA

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value €33.61 · Overvalued (−12.4%)
!Quality 57/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 3y +61.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 5.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (11/13)
!Moderate moat 58/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 17 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€92.48 €16.72 Fair Value €33.61 Apr 2024 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

30‑month range €16.72 – €92.48 · fair‑value band €23.65 – €63.64 · the €38.36 price screens above the €33.61 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

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Company profile

Super Micro Computer, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and sells server and storage solutions based on modular and open-standard architecture in the United States, Asia, Europe, and internationally.

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Super Micro Computer, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and sells server and storage solutions based on modular and open-standard architecture in the United States, Asia, Europe, and internationally. The company provides liquid and air-cooled AI servers for training and inferencing with integrated graphics processing units (GPUs) or PCIe based architectures; SuperBlade, MicroBlade, FlexTwin, GrandTwin, and BigTwin blade and multi-node systems; SuperStorage systems; Hyper, CloudDC, and WIO and rackmount systems; embedded (5G/IoT/Edge) systems; and MicroCloud server systems. It also offers workstations and networking devices; and modular server subsystems and accessories, including server boards, chassis, power supplies, and other accessories. In addition, the company provides remote system management solutions, such as Server Management suite comprising Supermicro Server Manager, Supermicro Power Management software, Supermicro Update Manager, SuperCloud Composer, and SuperDoctor 5. Further, the company identifies service requirements; creates and executes project plans; conducts verification testing; offers training; and provides technical documentation. Additionally, it offers rack level services from design to deployment for full rack and cluster level deployments of AI and HPC datacenters; help desk services and on-site product support; and warranties, maintenance, and technical support services. The company serves enterprise data centers, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, 5G, and edge computing markets through direct and indirect sales force, distributors, value-added resellers, system integrators, and original equipment manufacturers. Super Micro Computer, Inc. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

Stock analysis

Super Micro Computer, Inc. (MS51) currently trades at €38.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €33.61, 12.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €72.79 per share, and 15 of the 24 models we run sit above the €38.36 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €5.80, and 9 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: €23.65 (bear) to €63.64 (bull), the price of €38.36 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Super Micro Computer, Inc. reported revenue of $22.0B in FY2025 versus $5.2B in FY2022, a compound +61.7%/yr. Reported net income was $1.0B in FY2025, compounding +54.4%/yr from FY2022. FY2022 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.

Key figures

Market cap €23.1B · P/E ratio 13.7 · P/S ratio 0.66 · EPS (TTM) €2.79 · Net margin 4.8% · Return on equity 21.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.1% · Operating margin 13.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 106% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −12%, MS51 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €23.65 Fair Value €33.61 Bull €63.64
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (€2.79 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV €13.61 €15.77 €17.66 71
FCF DCF €37.17 €58.11 €124.77 70
Growth DCF €35.00 €68.82 €124.22 70
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €37.17 €58.11 €124.77 70
Owner Earnings €22.81 €51.05 €110.34 65
5Y Revenue Exit €23.33 €38.06 €68.74 65
5Y EBITDA Exit €29.02 €49.57 €89.82 67
5Y P/E Exit €33.50 €73.03 €126.73 63
10Y Revenue Exit €27.05 €54.33 €70.34 62
10Y EBITDA Exit €31.91 €66.58 €125.84 60
10Y P/E Exit €35.18 €76.23 €143.32 56
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €9.79 €68.30 €95.85 59
Lynch FV €35.29 €50.41 €65.53 57
PEG = 1.0 €35.29 €50.41 €65.53 53
EPV €13.61 €15.77 €17.66 71
Multiples
P/E Multiple €30.25 €40.33 €50.41 63
P/S Multiple €18.36 €24.49 €30.61 58
P/B Multiple €18.36 €24.49 €30.61 55
EV/EBIT €31.64 €41.96 €52.29 66
EV/EBITDA €24.98 €33.08 €41.19 67
EV/Revenue €16.33 €23.04 €29.75 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €4.33 €5.80 €8.65 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €35.00 €68.82 €124.22 70
Rev-Margin DCF €25.58 €43.48 €81.06 65
Economic Profit
Residual Income €9.57 €12.72 €21.44 63
ROIC Compounder €18.32 €27.31 €33.87 67
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €50.96 €72.79 €94.63 63

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 57/100

Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40

Profitability 55
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 50
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 61
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 85
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 67
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 40
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 53
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+46.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+61.7%
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+26.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+26.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 6%

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+32.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.1% a year for the price and +29.6% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+55.7%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+55.7%
Forecast 2028 (sales)+21.7%
Projected 2029 (sales)+18.9%
Projected 2030 (sales)+16.1%

MS51 screens overvalued: fair value 12% below the price. Compare with Dell Technologies Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Computer Hardware · 203 stocks

Beats the industry median on 11/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 57 · Above median
Fair Value upside −8.7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 21.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets 7.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 5.7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 13.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 93.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.74× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Computer Hardware median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 13.7× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 4.12× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.67× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 17.0× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 9.0× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)17 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 72
PAST (return on equity)86 · sector 33
HEALTH (low debt)63 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 47

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Computer Hardware stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Dell Technologies Inc DELL $539.59 $195.72 −64%
Arista Networks, Inc ANET $203.59 $161.24 −21%
Seagate Technology Holdings STX $922.34 $220.46 −76%
Western Digital Corporation WDC $453.23 $182.63 −60%
Wiwynn Corporation 6669 2,115 TWD 997.81 TWD −53%
Lenovo Group 0992 HK$37.16 HK$33.71 −9%
Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co 002415 ¥32.63 ¥46.76 +43%
Everpure, Inc P $126.00 $51.34 −59%
HP Inc HPQ $31.32 $52.70 +68%
ASUSTeK Computer Inc 2357 953.00 TWD 1,011 TWD +6%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Super Micro Computer, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MS51

Frequently asked questions

Is Super Micro Computer, Inc. (MS51) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €33.61 versus a price of €38.36, about −12% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MS51?
Our model-based fair value for Super Micro Computer, Inc. is €33.61 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €38.36.
What is the quality score of MS51?
Super Micro Computer, Inc. has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Super Micro Computer, Inc. (MS51)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €33.61 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €23.65, optimistic scenario €63.64. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Super Micro Computer, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €33.61, about −12% upside versus a price of €38.36 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €23.65, optimistic scenario €63.64. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Super Micro Computer, Inc. (MS51)?
Super Micro Computer, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €39.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Super Micro Computer, Inc. (MS51)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Super Micro Computer, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +7.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +61.7 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MS51 use?
Our models discount Super Micro Computer, Inc. at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.97, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Super Micro Computer, Inc. that is +7.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Super Micro Computer, Inc. (MS51) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Super Micro Computer, Inc. grew +61.7 % a year. The price currently implies +7.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Super Micro Computer, Inc. (MS51) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +15.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Super Micro Computer, Inc. (+7.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Super Micro Computer, Inc. (MS51)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.64 %: that much free cash flow Super Micro Computer, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Super Micro Computer, Inc. (MS51)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Super Micro Computer, Inc. it is €33.61 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of €38.36. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Super Micro Computer, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, MS51 trades above its calculated fair value: price €38.36, fair value €33.61, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MS51?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€38.36); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€33.61). For Super Micro Computer, Inc. the two are €4.75 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Super Micro Computer, Inc. worth?
The market values Super Micro Computer, Inc. at about €23.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is €38.36; our models calculate a fair value of €33.61 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MS51?
Our models span a range for Super Micro Computer, Inc.: cautious scenario €23.65, base €33.61, optimistic €63.64 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price €38.36). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MS51?
Super Micro Computer, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.7 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €33.61 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.1, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 9.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Super Micro Computer, Inc. (MS51)?
Balance-sheet figures for Super Micro Computer, Inc. (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 21.5%, debt of 0.74 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MS51 from its 52-week high?
Super Micro Computer, Inc. trades at €38.36, about 24% below its 52-week high of €50.20 and 106% above the low of €18.58 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €33.61 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Super Micro Computer, Inc.?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Dell Technologies Inc, Arista Networks, Inc, Seagate Technology Holdings, Western Digital Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Super Micro Computer, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price €38.36, calculated fair value €33.61 (−12%), Quality Score 57/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MS51 calculated?
We run Super Micro Computer, Inc. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €33.61, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Super Micro Computer, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Super Micro Computer, Inc. (MS51)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €38.36. Our model-based fair value is €33.61, about −12% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Super Micro Computer, Inc. right now?
The model range is unusually wide (€23.65 to €63.64). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Super Micro Computer, Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Super Micro Computer, Inc. (MS51)?
The market capitalisation of Super Micro Computer, Inc. is €23.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Super Micro Computer, Inc. (MS51)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Super Micro Computer, Inc. is 0.66 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Super Micro Computer, Inc. (MS51)?
Earnings per share at Super Micro Computer, Inc. are €2.79 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Super Micro Computer, Inc. (MS51)?
The net margin of Super Micro Computer, Inc. is 4.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Super Micro Computer, Inc. (MS51)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Super Micro Computer, Inc. is 21.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Super Micro Computer, Inc. (MS51)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Super Micro Computer, Inc. is 13.1% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Super Micro Computer, Inc. (MS51)?
The operating margin of Super Micro Computer, Inc. is 13.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Super Micro Computer, Inc. (MS51)?
Revenue at Super Micro Computer, Inc. is growing +93.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +61.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Super Micro Computer, Inc. (MS51)?
Earnings per share at Super Micro Computer, Inc. are growing +409% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Super Micro Computer, Inc. (MS51) carry?
The net debt of Super Micro Computer, Inc. is €504M (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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