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Data-driven stock valuation

Seagate Technology PLC (STX) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Seagate Technology PLC is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Technology · US · Market cap $178B · ISIN IE00BKVD2N49

At a glance

ST Seagate Technology PLC logo Seagate Technology PLC STX · US
Price$849.28
Fair Value$61.53
Upside−92.8% ⚠
Quality80/100

Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.

A strong business, but trading 1,281% above our fair value of $61.53.

As of Sep 6, 2026, the fair value of Seagate Technology PLC is $61.53 per share against a price of $849.28, so the fair value sits 93% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −2.8 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 21.6% net margin
✓Negative equity (buybacks among others) · generates free cash flow
·0.34% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
✓Wide moat 82/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on dividend: 7 out of 100
Evidence: Low Range $39.65 to $92.58

Fair value as of: Sep 6, 2026

From 21 valuation models · updated yesterday

Share price +1.4% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • A high-quality business (quality 80/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($92.58). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • A fairly wide model range ($39.65 to $92.58) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$1,093 $43.60 Fair Value $61.53 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $43.60 – $1,093 · fair‑value band $39.65 – $92.58 · the $849.28 price screens above the $61.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 6, 2026.

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Analysis

Seagate Technology PLC (STX) currently trades at $849.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $61.53, implying the stock looks roughly 1,281.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 80/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $152.19 per share, and 0 of the 21 models we run sit above the $849.28 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $26.65, and 21 of the 21 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Seagate Technology PLC generated revenue of $11.0B at a net margin of 21.6%. Revenue grew 44.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.9%. Net debt stands at $4.5B. Fundamentals as of Sep 6, 2026

Scenario range: $39.65 (bear) to $92.58 (bull), the price of $849.28 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −53% fair-value upside, at −93%, STX screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($7.64 per share) are deliberately not added.

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $17.27 $30.79 $56.34 77
Growth DCF $18.87 $32.02 $54.92 76
Owner Earnings $44.84 $68.89 $114.34 75
All 21 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $17.27 $30.79 $56.34 77
Owner Earnings $44.84 $68.89 $114.34 75
5Y Revenue Exit $38.49 $70.51 $117.53 70
5Y EBITDA Exit $62.97 $112.68 $179.00 73
5Y P/E Exit $67.51 $120.51 $184.04 69
10Y Revenue Exit $27.88 $51.82 $78.44 65
10Y EBITDA Exit $44.79 $78.28 $115.34 67
10Y P/E Exit $47.56 $83.20 $118.36 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $44.15 $58.15 $66.84 67
EPV $53.46 $65.40 $75.84 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $24.35 $26.65 $30.16 69
DDM Multi-Stage $24.35 $30.98 $39.99 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $136.35 $181.80 $227.25 63
P/S Multiple $82.78 $110.38 $137.97 58
EV/EBIT $132.22 $182.35 $232.47 66
EV/EBITDA $109.61 $152.19 $194.78 67
EV/Revenue $57.88 $90.46 $123.04 53
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $18.87 $32.02 $54.92 76
Rev-Margin DCF $38.49 $71.33 $111.24 71
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder $53.64 $67.40 $80.70 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $95.37 $136.24 $177.12 67

Widest divergence: Multiples ($152.19) versus Dividend Discount ($26.65). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 80.5
P/S ratio 13.0 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $10.55 price ÷ EPS = P/E 80.5
Dividend yield 0.3% payout 27.7%
Net margin 16.1% FY2025
Return on equity 17.9% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 12.8% avg 5y
Operating margin 35.7% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $11.0B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +44.1% 3y avg −7.9%
EPS growth (YoY) +108%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $818M FY2025
Net debt $4.5B FY2025 · ≈ 5.5 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 80/100

Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59

Profitability 82
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 100
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 45
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 59
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 98
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 84
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 85
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 75
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Seagate Technology Holdings plc engages in the provision of data storage technology and infrastructure solutions in Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and internationally.

Full company description

Seagate Technology Holdings plc engages in the provision of data storage technology and infrastructure solutions in Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and internationally. The company offers mass capacity storage products, including enterprise nearline hard disk drives (HDDs), enterprise nearline solid state drives (SSDs), enterprise nearline systems, video and image HDDs, and network-attached storage drives. It also offers legacy applications comprising Mission Critical HDDs and SSDs; external storage solutions under the Seagate Ultra Touch, One Touch, Expansion, and Basics product lines, as well as under the LaCie brand name; desktop drives for personal computers and workstation applications; notebook drives traditional notebooks, convertible systems, and external storage applications, DVR HDDs for video streaming applications, and gaming SSDs for gaming rigs. In addition, the company provides Lyve edge-to-cloud mass capacity platform, that includes modular hardware and software to support enterprises' on-premise and cloud storage infrastructure needs. It sells its products primarily to original equipment manufacturers, distributors, and retailers. The company was founded in 1978 and is based in Singapore.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Seagate Technology PLC reported revenue of $9.1B in FY2025 versus $10.7B in FY2021, a compound −3.9%/yr. Reported net income was $1.5B in FY2025, compounding +2.8%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$9.1B
Latest YoY
+38.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−7.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−2.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (25Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.6%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+8.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+7.8%
Dividend yield0.3%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 4.8% vs 10Y 4.1%, steady
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12.4% (2020) → 20.8% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop370% (2009) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in USD
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.0%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Revenue −3.9%/yr
FY21 $10.7B
FY22 $11.7B
FY23 $7.4B
FY24 $6.6B
FY25 $9.1B
Net income +2.8%/yr
FY21 $1.3B
FY22 $1.6B
FY23 −$529M
FY24 $335M
FY25 $1.5B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +1.6 % p.a.
Revenue per share −0.8 %

of which total revenue −5.1 % · buybacks/dilution +4.5 %

EBIT margin +3.2 %
Tax rate −0.2 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.6 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

STX screens 1,281% overvalued. Compare with Dell Technologies Inc →

Run the numbers yourself: free valuation calculators
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Seagate Technology PLC · Fair Value
$61.53 −1281%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Seagate Technology PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/STX

Peer Group

Computer Hardware · 222 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 80 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −93% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 18% · Top 25%
Return on assets 25% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 22% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 36% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 44% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.3% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Computer Hardware median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 80.5× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 16.19× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 217.9× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 51.9× · Priciest 25%
PEG 0.54× · Cheapest 25%

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Seagate Technology PLC deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+47.0 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years-2.8 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+8.2 %
FCF yield on price0.44 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models11.5 %

The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 6
FUTURE100 · sector 59
PAST72 · sector 24
HEALTH100 · sector 97
DIVIDEND7 · sector 37

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 44/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Computer Hardware stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 6, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Dell Technologies Inc DELL $456.24 $187.75 −59%
Arista Networks, Inc ANET $193.78 $57.72 −70%
Western Digital Corporation WDC $441.57 $47.49 −89%
Hygon Information Technology Co 688041 ¥246.21 ¥30.66 −88%
Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co 002415 ¥35.18 ¥40.44 +15%
Shenzhen Longsys Electronics Co 301308 ¥376.88 ¥91.67 −76%
Lenovo Group 0992 HK$30.12 HK$33.70 +12%
Dawning Information Industry Co 603019 ¥83.19 ¥39.38 −53%
HP Inc HPQ $30.52 $48.62 +59%
Inspur Electronic Information Industry Co 000977 ¥73.79 ¥44.02 −40%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Seagate Technology PLC (STX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $61.53 versus a price of $849.28, about −93% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of STX?
Our model-based fair value for Seagate Technology PLC is $61.53 (as of Sep 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $849.28.
What is the quality score of STX?
Seagate Technology PLC has a Quality Score of 80/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Seagate Technology PLC (STX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $61.53 (as of Sep 6, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario $39.65, optimistic scenario $92.58. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Seagate Technology PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $61.53, about −93% upside versus a price of $849.28 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $39.65, optimistic scenario $92.58. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Seagate Technology PLC (STX)?
Seagate Technology PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $11.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 6, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of STX?
The net profit margin of Seagate Technology PLC is about 21.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 21.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Seagate Technology PLC pay a dividend?
Seagate Technology PLC currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.34% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Seagate Technology PLC (STX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Seagate Technology PLC would have to grow free cash flow by +47.0 % per year for ten years (discount rate 11.5 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -2.8 % per year. As of Sep 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of STX use?
Our models discount Seagate Technology PLC at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 2.07, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
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