Seagate Technology PLC (STX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Seagate Technology PLC stock $208, price $557, that is 62.6% below the price, quality 78 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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TechnologyUS · Based in Singapore · ISIN IE00BKVD2N49
STSome dataNov 4, 2026
Seagate Technology PLC
STX · US
Strong quality,but very expensive
Our calculation puts a fair price 63% below what the stock costs today.
Quality 78/100
Healthy Growth(revenue 5y +2.7 %/yr in USD)
Highly profitable · 31.9% net margin (TTM)
Generates free cash flow
0.5% dividend yield · Well covered
Revenue last quarter +61% vs. a year ago.
Mixed vs. peers(6/14)
Wide moat90/100 · thin data
Insiders sold $502.5M (6M)
Some data
Fair value $208.25 · Strongly overvalued (−62.6%)
High debt
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Price drop: Strong results yet analysts trimmed targets on softer backdrop and supply risks🚩Potential supply risks from competitors🚩Dependence on few hyperscale customers
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $43.57 – $1,092 · fair‑value band $142.50 – $284.75 · the $557.06 price screens above the $208.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Seagate Technology Holdings plc engages in the provision of data storage technology and infrastructure solutions in Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and internationally.
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The company offers mass capacity storage products, including enterprise nearline hard disk drives (HDDs), enterprise nearline solid state drives (SSDs), enterprise nearline systems, video and image HDDs, and network-attached storage drives.
It also offers legacy applications comprising Mission Critical HDDs and SSDs; external storage solutions under the Seagate Ultra Touch, One Touch, Expansion, and Basics product lines, as well as under the LaCie brand name; desktop drives for personal computers and workstation applications; notebook drives traditional notebooks, convertible systems, and external storage applications, DVR HDDs for video streaming applications, and gaming SSDs for gaming rigs.
In addition, the company provides Lyve edge-to-cloud mass capacity platform, that includes modular hardware and software to support enterprises' on-premise and cloud storage infrastructure needs. It sells its products primarily to original equipment manufacturers, distributors, and retailers.
The company was founded in 1978 and is based in Singapore.
Stock analysis
Seagate Technology PLC (STX) currently trades at $557.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $208.25, 63% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $292.69 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $557.06 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $26.07, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $142.50 (bear) to $284.75 (bull), the price of $557.06 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 78/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Seagate Technology PLC reported revenue of $12.2B in FY2026 versus $11.7B in FY2022, a compound +1.1%/yr. Reported net income was $3.2B in FY2026, compounding +17.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $161B Large · P/E ratio 29.2 · P/S ratio 13.2 · EPS (TTM) $19.07 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 31.9% · Return on equity 259% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 90 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 136% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 31% fair-value upside, at −63%, STX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$142.50Fair Value $208.25Bull$284.75
Price $557.06 · Downside -62.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then ($5.65 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 8 officers or directors sold shares worth $502.5M and none bought.
SaleWilliam D MosleyCEO, Director24× since Dec 1, 2025: 459,954 shares, avg. $688.87$316.8MNov 2, 2026
SaleJohn Christopher MorrisEVP & CTO13× since Dec 15, 2025: 40,795 shares, avg. $792.53$32.3MOct 30, 2026
SaleJames CI LeeEVP & CLO8× since Nov 11, 2025: 16,802 shares, avg. $768.54$12.9MOct 23, 2026
SaleBan Seng TehEVP & Chief Commercial Officer13× since Nov 11, 2025: 119,894 shares, avg. $728.38$87.3MSep 15, 2026
SaleGianluca RomanoEVP & CFO14× since Nov 12, 2025: 222,739 shares, avg. $657.24$146.4MSep 15, 2026
SaleYolanda Lee ConyersDirector4× since Dec 2, 2025: 3,000 shares, avg. $591.74$1.8MSep 1, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleShankar ArumugaveluDirector2× since Nov 10, 2025: 6,000 shares, avg. $400.09$2.4MJun 4, 2026
SalePrat BhattDirector1,000 shares at $929.88$929,880Jun 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleStephanie TileniusDirector1,580 shares at $766.62$1.2MMay 5, 2026
SaleKian Fatt ChongEVP Global Operations5,846 shares at $416.48$2.4MFeb 23, 2026
Plus 1 more entries from the last 12 months.
Plus 56 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.73/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+34.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.9% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+24.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+24.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.21.0% vs 18.3%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 34%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+28.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+37.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +25.5% a year for the price and +33.8% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: The business shows strength from hyperscaler-driven data-center revenue growth yet remains limited by a thin moat in commoditized hardware plus high leverage with negative equity.
Main risk: A limited number of hyperscale customers account for a large share of revenue, with one representing about 14 percent in fiscal 2026, so reduced, delayed or lost purchases by any of them could materially cut revenue and margins.
Bull case: Long-term supply agreements with multiple hyperscalers and continued AI-driven data growth could help the company maintain stable demand and pricing even if individual customers adjust their spending.
Bear case: If key hyperscale customers significantly reduce purchases due to slower AI infrastructure spending or shifts to other suppliers, revenue and margins could decline sharply given the high customer concentration.
Seagate posted strong first-quarter results with data-center revenue jumping sharply on hyperscaler demand and better pricing. Yet analysts trimmed targets afterward, citing a softer industry backdrop and potential supply risks from competitors. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Will the long-term supply contracts and HAMR transition protect margins more than the broader concerns suggest?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Computer Hardware · 214 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score78 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−62.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)259.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets31.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)31.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)0.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)61.0% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.56× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Computer Hardware median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)29.2× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)13.21× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow51.9× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA36.2× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.40× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 3
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 81
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 33
HEALTH (low debt)22· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)11· sector 46
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Seagate Technology PLC (STX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $208.25 versus a price of $557.06, about 63% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of STX?
Our model-based fair value for Seagate Technology PLC is $208.25 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $557.06.
What is the quality score of STX?
Seagate Technology PLC has a Quality Score of 78/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Seagate Technology PLC (STX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $208.25 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $142.50, optimistic scenario $284.75. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Seagate Technology PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $208.25, about 63% lower versus a price of $557.06 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $142.50, optimistic scenario $284.75. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Seagate Technology PLC (STX)?
Seagate Technology PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $12.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Seagate Technology PLC pay a dividend?
Seagate Technology PLC currently shows a dividend yield of 0.53% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Seagate Technology PLC (STX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Seagate Technology PLC would have to grow free cash flow by +28.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.7 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of STX use?
Our models discount Seagate Technology PLC at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 2.08, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Seagate Technology PLC that is +28.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Seagate Technology PLC (STX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Seagate Technology PLC grew +2.7 % a year. The price currently implies +28.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Seagate Technology PLC (STX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Seagate Technology PLC (+28.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Seagate Technology PLC (STX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.43 %: that much free cash flow Seagate Technology PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Seagate Technology PLC (STX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Seagate Technology PLC it is $208.25 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $557.06. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Seagate Technology PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, STX trades above its calculated fair value: price $557.06, fair value $208.25, a gap of about −63% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of STX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($557.06); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($208.25). For Seagate Technology PLC the two are $348.81 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Seagate Technology PLC worth?
The market values Seagate Technology PLC at about $161B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $557.06; our models calculate a fair value of $208.25 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about STX?
Our models span a range for Seagate Technology PLC: cautious scenario $142.50, base $208.25, optimistic $284.75 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $557.06). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of STX?
Seagate Technology PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.2 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $208.25 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2026 it is 34.6 (reported for FY2026: 40.1). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 5 fiscal years (2021 to 2026), reported earnings, FY2024, FY2026 ex one-offs: 21.3. Other multiples: PEG 0.4, P/S 13.2, EV/EBITDA 36.2.
What is the PEG ratio of STX?
The PEG ratio of Seagate Technology PLC is 0.40 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Seagate Technology PLC (STX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Seagate Technology PLC (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 259.4%, debt of 1.56 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 78/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is STX from its 52-week high?
Seagate Technology PLC trades at $557.06, about 49% below its 52-week high of $1,092 and 136% above the low of $236.10 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $208.25 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Seagate Technology PLC?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Dell Technologies Inc, Arista Networks, Inc, Sandisk Corporation, Western Digital Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Seagate Technology PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $557.06, calculated fair value $208.25 (−63%), Quality Score 78/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of STX calculated?
We run Seagate Technology PLC through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $208.25, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Seagate Technology PLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Seagate Technology PLC (STX)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $557.06. Our model-based fair value is $208.25, about 63% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Seagate Technology PLC right now?
A high-quality business (quality 78/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($284.75). The favourable scenario is already priced in. A fairly wide model range ($142.50 to $284.75) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Seagate Technology PLC (STX) come from?
Earnings per share at Seagate Technology PLC grew +11.0 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.1 %, EBIT margin +9.8 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Seagate Technology PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Seagate Technology PLC (STX)?
The market capitalisation of Seagate Technology PLC is $161B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Seagate Technology PLC (STX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Seagate Technology PLC is 13.2 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Seagate Technology PLC (STX)?
Earnings per share at Seagate Technology PLC are $19.07 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 29.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Seagate Technology PLC (STX)?
The dividend yield of Seagate Technology PLC is 0.5% (payout 13.4%, on adjusted earnings, reported 15.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Seagate Technology PLC (STX)?
The net margin of Seagate Technology PLC is 31.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Seagate Technology PLC (STX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Seagate Technology PLC is 259% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Seagate Technology PLC (STX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Seagate Technology PLC is 17.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Seagate Technology PLC (STX)?
Revenue at Seagate Technology PLC is growing +61.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Seagate Technology PLC (STX)?
Earnings per share at Seagate Technology PLC are growing +212% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Seagate Technology PLC (STX) carry?
The net debt of Seagate Technology PLC is $2.2B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 0.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 4, 2026