Seagate Technology PLC (STX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Seagate Technology PLC is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Quality Too ExpensiveExcellent quality, but the valuation looks stretched.
!Fair value $61.53 · Strongly overvalued (−93%)
✓Quality 80/100
!Weak Growth(revenue 5y −2.8 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 21.6% net margin (TTM)
✓Negative equity (buybacks among others) · generates free cash flow
·0.34% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers(8/14)
✓Wide moat82/100
!Insider activity46/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $43.60 – $1,093 · fair‑value band $39.53 – $92.58 · the $858.79 price screens above the $61.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.
Seagate Technology Holdings plc engages in the provision of data storage technology and infrastructure solutions in Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and internationally.
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Seagate Technology Holdings plc engages in the provision of data storage technology and infrastructure solutions in Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and internationally. The company offers mass capacity storage products, including enterprise nearline hard disk drives (HDDs), enterprise nearline solid state drives (SSDs), enterprise nearline systems, video and image HDDs, and network-attached storage drives. It also offers legacy applications comprising Mission Critical HDDs and SSDs; external storage solutions under the Seagate Ultra Touch, One Touch, Expansion, and Basics product lines, as well as under the LaCie brand name; desktop drives for personal computers and workstation applications; notebook drives traditional notebooks, convertible systems, and external storage applications, DVR HDDs for video streaming applications, and gaming SSDs for gaming rigs. In addition, the company provides Lyve edge-to-cloud mass capacity platform, that includes modular hardware and software to support enterprises' on-premise and cloud storage infrastructure needs. It sells its products primarily to original equipment manufacturers, distributors, and retailers. The company was founded in 1978 and is based in Singapore.
Stock analysis
Seagate Technology PLC (STX) currently trades at $858.79, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $61.53, implying the stock looks roughly 1,296.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $152.19 per share, and 0 of the 21 models we run sit above the $858.79 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $26.65, and 21 of the 21 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $39.53 (bear) to $92.58 (bull), the price of $858.79 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 80/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Seagate Technology PLC reported revenue of $9.1B in FY2025 versus $10.7B in FY2021, a compound −3.9%/yr. Reported net income was $1.5B in FY2025, compounding +2.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $186B · P/E ratio 81.4 · P/S ratio 13.1 · EPS (TTM) $10.55 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 16.1% · Return on equity 17.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −93%, STX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $39.53Fair Value $61.53Bull $92.58
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($7.64 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+38.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.8%
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+8.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5% vs 4%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 21%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.0%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+66.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+31.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Computer Hardware · 225 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score80 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−93% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)18% · Top 25%
Return on assets25% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)22% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)36% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth44% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Computer Hardware median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)81.4× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)16.19× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF217.9× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA51.9× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.54× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 1
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 59
PAST (return on equity)72· sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)7· sector 38
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Seagate Technology PLC (STX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $61.53 versus a price of $858.79, about −93% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of STX?
Our model-based fair value for Seagate Technology PLC is $61.53 (as of Sep 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $858.79.
What is the quality score of STX?
Seagate Technology PLC has a Quality Score of 80/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Seagate Technology PLC (STX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $61.53 (as of Sep 17, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario $39.53, optimistic scenario $92.58. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Seagate Technology PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $61.53, about −93% upside versus a price of $858.79 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $39.53, optimistic scenario $92.58. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Seagate Technology PLC (STX)?
Seagate Technology PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $11.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 17, 2026).
Does Seagate Technology PLC pay a dividend?
Seagate Technology PLC currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.34% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 17, 2026).
What growth is priced into Seagate Technology PLC (STX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Seagate Technology PLC would have to grow free cash flow by +66.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -2.8 % per year. As of Sep 17, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of STX use?
Our models discount Seagate Technology PLC at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 2.07, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Seagate Technology PLC that is +66.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Seagate Technology PLC (STX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Seagate Technology PLC grew -2.8 % a year. The price currently implies +66.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Seagate Technology PLC (STX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Seagate Technology PLC (+66.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Seagate Technology PLC (STX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.44 %: that much free cash flow Seagate Technology PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Seagate Technology PLC (STX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Seagate Technology PLC it is $61.53 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026), against a price of $858.79. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Seagate Technology PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 17, 2026, STX trades above its calculated fair value: price $858.79, fair value $61.53, a gap of about −93% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of STX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($858.79); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($61.53). For Seagate Technology PLC the two are $797.26 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Seagate Technology PLC worth?
The market values Seagate Technology PLC at about $186B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 17, 2026). Per share that is $858.79; our models calculate a fair value of $61.53 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about STX?
Our models span a range for Seagate Technology PLC: cautious scenario $39.53, base $61.53, optimistic $92.58 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026, price $858.79). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of STX?
Seagate Technology PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 81.4 (as of Sep 17, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $61.53 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/S 16.2, EV/EBITDA 51.9.
What is the PEG ratio of STX?
The PEG ratio of Seagate Technology PLC is 0.54 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 17, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Seagate Technology PLC (STX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Seagate Technology PLC (as of Sep 17, 2026): return on equity 17.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 80/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is STX from its 52-week high?
Seagate Technology PLC trades at $858.79, about 11% below its 52-week high of $966.80 and 598% above the low of $123.04 (as of Sep 17, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $61.53 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Seagate Technology PLC?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Dell Technologies Inc, Arista Networks, Inc, Western Digital Corporation, Hygon Information Technology Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Seagate Technology PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 17, 2026: price $858.79, calculated fair value $61.53 (−93%), Quality Score 80/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of STX calculated?
We run Seagate Technology PLC through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $61.53, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Seagate Technology PLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Seagate Technology PLC (STX)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $858.79. Our model-based fair value is $61.53, about −93% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Seagate Technology PLC right now?
A high-quality business (quality 80/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($92.58). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($39.53 to $92.58) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Seagate Technology PLC (STX) come from?
Earnings per share at Seagate Technology PLC grew +1.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −0.8 %, EBIT margin +3.2 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Seagate Technology PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Seagate Technology PLC (STX)?
The market capitalisation of Seagate Technology PLC is $186B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Seagate Technology PLC (STX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Seagate Technology PLC is 13.1 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Seagate Technology PLC (STX)?
Earnings per share at Seagate Technology PLC are $10.55 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 81.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Seagate Technology PLC (STX)?
The dividend yield of Seagate Technology PLC is 0.3% (payout 27.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Seagate Technology PLC (STX)?
The net margin of Seagate Technology PLC is 16.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Seagate Technology PLC (STX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Seagate Technology PLC is 17.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Seagate Technology PLC (STX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Seagate Technology PLC is 12.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Seagate Technology PLC (STX)?
The operating margin of Seagate Technology PLC is 35.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Seagate Technology PLC (STX)?
Revenue at Seagate Technology PLC is growing +44.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Seagate Technology PLC (STX)?
Earnings per share at Seagate Technology PLC are growing +108% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Seagate Technology PLC (STX) carry?
The net debt of Seagate Technology PLC is $4.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 17, 2026