Seagate Technology Holdings (STX) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $178B
Seagate Technology Holdings
STX · US
Fair value as of: Jul 20, 2026
From 21 valuation models · updated 18 days ago
Share price +3.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 94% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 73/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($69.17). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $43.60 – $1,093 · fair‑value band $40.96 – $69.17 · the $852.95 price screens above the $50.09 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
Analysis
Seagate Technology Holdings (STX) currently trades at $852.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $50.09, implying the stock looks roughly 94.1% overvalued today. We read business quality at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Seagate Technology Holdings generated revenue of $11.0B at a net margin of 21.6%. Revenue grew 44.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.9%. Net debt stands at $4.5B. Fundamentals as of Jul 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $40.96 (bear case) to $69.17 (bull case); at $852.95, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -67% fair-value upside, at -94%, STX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 21 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($104.88) versus Dividend Discount ($26.65). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Seagate Technology Holdings plc engages in the provision of data storage technology and infrastructure solutions in Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and internationally.
Full company description
Seagate Technology Holdings plc engages in the provision of data storage technology and infrastructure solutions in Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and internationally. The company offers mass capacity storage products, including enterprise nearline hard disk drives (HDDs), enterprise nearline solid state drives (SSDs), enterprise nearline systems, video and image HDDs, and network-attached storage drives. It also offers legacy applications comprising Mission Critical HDDs and SSDs; external storage solutions under the Seagate Ultra Touch, One Touch, Expansion, and Basics product lines, as well as under the LaCie brand name; desktop drives for personal computers and workstation applications; notebook drives traditional notebooks, convertible systems, and external storage applications, DVR HDDs for video streaming applications, and gaming SSDs for gaming rigs. In addition, the company provides Lyve edge-to-cloud mass capacity platform, that includes modular hardware and software to support enterprises' on-premise and cloud storage infrastructure needs. It sells its products primarily to original equipment manufacturers, distributors, and retailers. The company was founded in 1978 and is based in Singapore.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Seagate Technology Holdings reported revenue of $9.1B in FY2025 versus $10.7B in FY2021, a compound −3.9%/yr. Reported net income was $1.5B in FY2025, compounding +2.8%/yr from FY2021.
STX screens 94% overvalued. Compare with Compal Electronics, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Is Seagate (STX) a Solid Growth Stock? 3 Reasons to Think "Yes"
- STX vs. P: Which Storage Stock Deserves a Spot in Your Portfolio?
- Why Analysts Are Raising Their Seagate Stock Price Targets Left and Right
Peer Group
Computer Hardware · 217 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Computer Hardware median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Computer Hardware stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Compal Electronics, Inc CEIR | $0.0310 | $0.0276 | -11% |
| Dell Technologies Inc DELL | $434.97 | $163.87 | -62% |
| Arista Networks, Inc ANET | $168.56 | $43.74 | -74% |
| Western Digital Corporation WDC | $513.84 | $74.05 | -86% |
| Wiwynn Corporation 6669 | 4,685 TWD | 1,559 TWD | -67% |
| Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co 002415 | ¥34.12 | ¥30.11 | -12% |
| Quanta Computer Inc 2382 | 373.50 TWD | 297.22 TWD | -20% |
| Shenzhen Longsys Electronics Co 301308 | ¥587.60 | ¥60.86 | -90% |
| Lenovo Group 0992 | HK$23.16 | HK$3.07 | -87% |
| Dawning Information Industry Co 603019 | ¥106.13 | ¥28.88 | -73% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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