Midland States Bancorp, Inc (MSBI) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $610M
Midland States Bancorp, Inc
MSBI · US
Fair value as of: Jul 27, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Share price +13.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 16% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($14.76 to $40.86). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $13.96 – $34.53 · fair‑value band $14.76 – $40.86 · the $33.49 price screens above the $28.17 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
Analysis
Midland States Bancorp, Inc (MSBI) currently trades at $33.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $28.17, implying the stock looks roughly 15.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Midland States Bancorp, Inc generated revenue of $274M at a net margin of 12.8%. Revenue grew 14.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.2%. Net debt stands at $253M. Fundamentals as of Jul 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $14.76 (bear case) to $40.86 (bull case); at $33.49, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 146% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at -16%, MSBI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($22.57) versus Asset-Based ($18.28). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 90
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Midland States Bancorp, Inc. operates as a financial holding company for Midland States Bank that provides various banking products and services to individuals, businesses, municipalities, and other entities. It operates in Banking and Wealth Management segments.
Full company description
Midland States Bancorp, Inc. operates as a financial holding company for Midland States Bank that provides various banking products and services to individuals, businesses, municipalities, and other entities. It operates in Banking and Wealth Management segments. The company offers commercial loans; commercial real estate loans that include various property types, such as owner-occupied offices, warehouses and production facilities, office buildings, hotels, mixed-use residential and commercial facilities, retail centers, multifamily properties, assisted living facilities, and farmland; construction and land development loans, including loans to small and midsized businesses to construct owner-user properties, loans to developers of commercial real estate investment properties and residential developments, and loans to individual clients for construction of single family homes; and residential real estate loans comprising first and second mortgage loans, and home equity lines of credit. It also provides commercial equipment leasing; depository products consisting of checking, savings, money market, certificates of deposits, and sweep accounts; and trust and wealth management products and services, such as financial and estate planning, trustee and custodial services, investment management, tax and insurance planning, business planning, corporate retirement plan consulting and administration, and retail brokerage services. The company was founded in 1881 and is headquartered in Effingham, Illinois.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Midland States Bancorp, Inc reported revenue of $468M in FY2025 versus $313M in FY2021, a compound +10.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$124M in FY2025.
MSBI screens 16% overvalued. Compare with PT Bank Central Asia Tbk →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Midland States Bancorp Non-GAAP EPS of $0.82 misses by $0.02, revenue of $83.36M beats by $1.84M
- Midland States Bancorp, Inc. to Announce Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results on Thursday, July 23
- Ex-Div Reminder for Midland States Bancorp's Preferred Series A
- Midland States Bancorp, Inc. Appoints Claire Stack Chief Financial Officer
Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1083 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA | 6,175 IDR | 6,087 IDR | -1% |
| KB Financial Group 105560 | 184,400 KRW | 213,797 KRW | +16% |
| PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI | 2,970 IDR | 4,891 IDR | +65% |
| PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI | 4,310 IDR | 7,841 IDR | +82% |
| Banco Bradesco S.A BBD | 5,120 ARS | 10,240 ARS | +100% |
| Shinhan Financial Group 055550 | 107,900 KRW | 137,259 KRW | +27% |
| Hana Financial Group 086790 | 136,800 KRW | 193,969 KRW | +42% |
| Lloyds Banking Group LYG | 4,138 ARS | 8,275 ARS | +100% |
| Banco de Chile, CHILE | 193.10 CLP | 152.55 CLP | -21% |
| Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, VCB | 59,400 VND | 84,201 VND | +42% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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