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Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Midland States Bancorp, Inc. $27.30, price $32.39, upside -15.7%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Financial Services · US · ISIN US5977421057

MS Midland States Bancorp, Inc. logo Some data Sep 23, 2026

Midland States Bancorp, Inc.

MSBI · US

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value $27.30 · Overvalued (−16%)
!Quality 56/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +8.2 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 12.8% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
·3.92% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (6/14)
!Moderate moat 46/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 12 out of 100
!Weak on past: 25 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$34.53 $13.96 Fair Value $27.30 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $13.96 – $34.53 · fair‑value band $14.51 – $39.07 · the $32.39 price screens above the $27.30 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Midland States Bancorp, Inc. operates as a financial holding company for Midland States Bank that provides various banking products and services to individuals, businesses, municipalities, and other entities. It operates in Banking and Wealth Management segments.

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Midland States Bancorp, Inc. operates as a financial holding company for Midland States Bank that provides various banking products and services to individuals, businesses, municipalities, and other entities. It operates in Banking and Wealth Management segments. The company offers commercial loans; commercial real estate loans that include various property types, such as owner-occupied offices, warehouses and production facilities, office buildings, hotels, mixed-use residential and commercial facilities, retail centers, multifamily properties, assisted living facilities, and farmland; construction and land development loans, including loans to small and midsized businesses to construct owner-user properties, loans to developers of commercial real estate investment properties and residential developments, and loans to individual clients for construction of single family homes; and residential real estate loans comprising first and second mortgage loans, and home equity lines of credit. It also provides commercial equipment leasing; depository products consisting of checking, savings, money market, certificates of deposits, and sweep accounts; and trust and wealth management products and services, such as financial and estate planning, trustee and custodial services, investment management, tax and insurance planning, business planning, corporate retirement plan consulting and administration, and retail brokerage services. The company was founded in 1881 and is headquartered in Effingham, Illinois.

Stock analysis

Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI) currently trades at $32.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $27.30, implying the stock looks roughly 18.6% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $22.57 per share, and 0 of the 3 models we run sit above the $32.39 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $18.28, and 3 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $14.51 (bear) to $39.07 (bull), the price of $32.39 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Midland States Bancorp, Inc. reported revenue of $468M in FY2025 versus $313M in FY2021, a compound +10.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$124M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $708M · P/E ratio 27.0 · P/S ratio 2.22 · EPS (TTM) $1.20 · Dividend yield 3.9% · Net margin −26.6% · Return on equity 6.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 132% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −16%, MSBI screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $14.51 Fair Value $27.30 Bull $39.07
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM $13.71 $24.71 $34.02 68
DDM Multi-Stage $13.71 $22.57 $26.40 67
NCAV (Graham) $13.64 $18.28 $27.28 54
All 3 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $13.71 $24.71 $34.02 68
DDM Multi-Stage $13.71 $22.57 $26.40 67
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $13.64 $18.28 $27.28 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 85

Profitability 4
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 35
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 97
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 7
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 75
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 86
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 95
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 83
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 58/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−14.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.4% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
10.1% (2020) → −22.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.

MSBI screens 19% overvalued. Compare with DBS Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 54 · Below median
Fair Value upside −16% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 6% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 13% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 34% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 14% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.57× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 27.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.25× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 2.58× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 5.9× · Cheaper than median
PEG 1.41× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)12 · sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)72 · sector 45
PAST (return on equity)25 · sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)72 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)78 · sector 53

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DBS Group D05 77.69 SGD 40.48 SGD −48%
China Merchants Bank Co 3968 HK$51.25 HK$62.30 +22%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.73 €4.04 −40%
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹737.25 ₹406.85 −45%
BNP Paribas SA BNP €101.30 €105.99 +5%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €83.28 €77.62 −7%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $10.87 $6.75 −38%
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,340 ₹616.16 −54%
The PNC Financial Services Group PNC $227.96 $159.52 −30%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 32.14 SGD 19.80 SGD −38%

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$27.30 −19%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Midland States Bancorp, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MSBI

Frequently asked questions

Is Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $27.30 versus a price of $32.39, about −16% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MSBI?
Our model-based fair value for Midland States Bancorp, Inc. is $27.30 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $32.39.
What is the quality score of MSBI?
Midland States Bancorp, Inc. has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $27.30 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario $14.51, optimistic scenario $39.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Midland States Bancorp, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $27.30, about −16% upside versus a price of $32.39 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $14.51, optimistic scenario $39.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI)?
Midland States Bancorp, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $274M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Midland States Bancorp, Inc. pay a dividend?
Midland States Bancorp, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.92% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Midland States Bancorp, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.2 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MSBI use?
Our models discount Midland States Bancorp, Inc. at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.67, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Midland States Bancorp, Inc. that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Midland States Bancorp, Inc. grew +8.2 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 17.00 %: that much free cash flow Midland States Bancorp, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Midland States Bancorp, Inc. it is $27.30 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $32.39. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Midland States Bancorp, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, MSBI trades above its calculated fair value: price $32.39, fair value $27.30, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MSBI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($32.39); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($27.30). For Midland States Bancorp, Inc. the two are $5.09 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Midland States Bancorp, Inc. worth?
The market values Midland States Bancorp, Inc. at about $708M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $32.39; our models calculate a fair value of $27.30 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MSBI?
Our models span a range for Midland States Bancorp, Inc.: cautious scenario $14.51, base $27.30, optimistic $39.07 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $32.39). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MSBI?
Midland States Bancorp, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.0 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $27.30 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 1.3, P/S 2.6.
What is the PEG ratio of MSBI?
The PEG ratio of Midland States Bancorp, Inc. is 1.41 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 6.2%, debt of 0.57 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MSBI from its 52-week high?
Midland States Bancorp, Inc. trades at $32.39, about 6% below its 52-week high of $34.53 and 132% above the low of $13.98 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $27.30 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Midland States Bancorp, Inc.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Midland States Bancorp, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $32.39, calculated fair value $27.30 (−16%), Quality Score 56/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MSBI calculated?
We run Midland States Bancorp, Inc. through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $27.30, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Midland States Bancorp, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $32.39. Our model-based fair value is $27.30, about −16% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Midland States Bancorp, Inc. right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($14.51 to $39.07). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI) come from?
Earnings per share at Midland States Bancorp, Inc. grew +6.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.6 %, EBIT margin +1.5 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Midland States Bancorp, Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI)?
The market capitalisation of Midland States Bancorp, Inc. is $708M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Midland States Bancorp, Inc. is 2.22 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI)?
Earnings per share at Midland States Bancorp, Inc. are $1.20 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 27.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI)?
The dividend yield of Midland States Bancorp, Inc. is 3.9% (payout 106%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI)?
The net margin of Midland States Bancorp, Inc. is −26.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Midland States Bancorp, Inc. is 6.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Midland States Bancorp, Inc. is 0.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI)?
The operating margin of Midland States Bancorp, Inc. is 34.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI)?
Revenue at Midland States Bancorp, Inc. is growing +14.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI)?
Earnings per share at Midland States Bancorp, Inc. are growing −71.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI) carry?
The net debt of Midland States Bancorp, Inc. is $253M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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