Metals Acquisition Corp (MTAL) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $391M
Metals Acquisition Corp
MTAL · US
Fair value as of: Aug 19, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated today
Share price +0.4% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 100% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($13.62). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range ($13.62 to $35.09) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
59‑month range $7.85 – $14.95 · fair‑value band $13.62 – $35.09 · the $10.24 price screens below the $20.48 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
Analysis
Metals Acquisition Corp (MTAL) currently trades at $10.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $20.48, implying the stock looks roughly 100.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $322M. Revenue declined 10.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -12.3%. Fundamentals as of Aug 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $13.62 (bear case) to $35.09 (bull case); at $10.24, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -61% fair-value upside, at 100%, MTAL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 2 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 72 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Metals Acquisition Corp. II focuses on effecting a merger, amalgamation, share exchange, asset acquisition, share purchase, reorganization, or similar business combination with one or more businesses. Metals Acquisition Corp. II was incorporated in 2025 and is based in Camana Bay, Cayman Islands.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2024 · reported fiscal years
Metals Acquisition Corp reported revenue of $341M in FY2024 versus $0 in FY2022. Reported net income was −$81.7M in FY2024.
Watch MTAL: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Shell Companies · 91 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Shell Companies median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Shell Companies stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Coca-Cola Company COLA | C$30.34 | C$10.62 | -65% |
| Lionheart III Corp LION | $11.73 | $18.15 | +55% |
| Agriculture & Natural Solutions Acquisition Corporation ANSC | $11.46 | $4.13 | -64% |
| AA Mission Acquisition Corp AAM | $0.0390 | $0.0394 | +1% |
| GP-Act III Acquisition Corp GPAT | $11.16 | $4.30 | -61% |
| Berto Acquisition Corp TACO | $10.45 | $2.73 | -74% |
| Axiom Intelligence Acquisition Corp AXIN | $10.29 | $1.46 | -86% |
| Bold Eagle Acquisition Corp BEAG | $10.75 | $4.00 | -63% |
| Lionheart Holdings CUB | $10.88 | $5.06 | -53% |
| Translational Development Acquisition Corp TDAC | $10.85 | $4.28 | -61% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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