Metals Acquisition Corp (MTAL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Metals Acquisition Corp $17.27, price $10.15, upside +70.2%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.85 – $14.95 · fair‑value band $11.14 – $30.34 · the $10.15 price screens below the $17.27 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.
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Metals Acquisition Corp. II focuses on effecting a merger, amalgamation, share exchange, asset acquisition, share purchase, reorganization, or similar business combination with one or more businesses. Metals Acquisition Corp. II was incorporated in 2025 and is based in Camana Bay, Cayman Islands.
Stock analysis
Metals Acquisition Corp (MTAL) currently trades at $10.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.27, implying the stock looks roughly 41.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 13 models at a data quality of 88/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $11.14 (bear) to $30.34 (bull), the price of $10.15 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Metals Acquisition Corp reported revenue of $341M in FY2024 versus $0 in FY2022. Reported net income was −$81.7M in FY2024.
Key figures
Market cap $389M · P/S ratio 1.21 · EPS (TTM) $−0.5100 · Net margin −24.0% · Return on equity −12.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.1% · Revenue (TTM) $322M · Revenue growth (YoY) −10.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 18 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −50% fair-value upside, at 70%, MTAL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $11.14Fair Value $17.27Bull $30.34
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2024 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−28.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −30.2% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Shell Companies · 76 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside+70.2% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets2.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)−24.0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)0.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−10.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Shell Companies median · lower = cheaper
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
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Is Metals Acquisition Corp (MTAL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $17.27 versus a price of $10.15, about +70% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MTAL?
Our model-based fair value for Metals Acquisition Corp is $17.27 (as of Sep 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $10.15.
What is the quality score of MTAL?
Metals Acquisition Corp has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Metals Acquisition Corp (MTAL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $17.27 (as of Sep 30, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.14, optimistic scenario $30.34. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Metals Acquisition Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $17.27, about +70% upside versus a price of $10.15 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $11.14, optimistic scenario $30.34. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Metals Acquisition Corp (MTAL)?
Metals Acquisition Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $322M (latest available figure, as of Sep 30, 2026).
What growth is priced into Metals Acquisition Corp (MTAL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Metals Acquisition Corp would have to grow free cash flow by -28.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). As of Sep 30, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MTAL use?
Our models discount Metals Acquisition Corp at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.34, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Metals Acquisition Corp that is -28.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How fast is the sector of Metals Acquisition Corp (MTAL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Metals Acquisition Corp (-28.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Metals Acquisition Corp (MTAL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 18.10 %: that much free cash flow Metals Acquisition Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Metals Acquisition Corp (MTAL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Metals Acquisition Corp it is $17.27 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026), against a price of $10.15. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Metals Acquisition Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 30, 2026, MTAL trades below its calculated fair value: price $10.15, fair value $17.27, a gap of about +70% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MTAL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($10.15); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($17.27). For Metals Acquisition Corp the two are $7.12 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Metals Acquisition Corp worth?
The market values Metals Acquisition Corp at about $389M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 30, 2026). Per share that is $10.15; our models calculate a fair value of $17.27 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MTAL?
Our models span a range for Metals Acquisition Corp: cautious scenario $11.14, base $17.27, optimistic $30.34 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026, price $10.15). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Metals Acquisition Corp (MTAL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Metals Acquisition Corp (as of Sep 30, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MTAL from its 52-week high?
Metals Acquisition Corp trades at $10.15, about 17% below its 52-week high of $12.21 and 2% above the low of $9.95 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $17.27 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Metals Acquisition Corp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Lionheart III Corp, AA Mission Acquisition Corp, Berto Acquisition Corp, Axiom Intelligence Acquisition Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Metals Acquisition Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 30, 2026: price $10.15, calculated fair value $17.27 (+70%), Quality Score 49/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MTAL calculated?
We run Metals Acquisition Corp through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $17.27, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Metals Acquisition Corp currently trades 41 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Metals Acquisition Corp (MTAL)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $10.15. Our model-based fair value is $17.27, about +70% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Metals Acquisition Corp right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($11.14). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($11.14 to $30.34). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Metals Acquisition Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Metals Acquisition Corp (MTAL)?
The market capitalisation of Metals Acquisition Corp is $389M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Metals Acquisition Corp (MTAL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Metals Acquisition Corp is 1.21 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Metals Acquisition Corp (MTAL)?
Earnings per share at Metals Acquisition Corp are $−0.5100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Metals Acquisition Corp (MTAL)?
The net margin of Metals Acquisition Corp is −24.0% (fiscal year 2024). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Metals Acquisition Corp (MTAL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Metals Acquisition Corp is −12.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Metals Acquisition Corp (MTAL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Metals Acquisition Corp is −1.1% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Metals Acquisition Corp (MTAL)?
Revenue at Metals Acquisition Corp is growing −10.4% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Metals Acquisition Corp (MTAL)?
Earnings per share at Metals Acquisition Corp are growing −86.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Metals Acquisition Corp (MTAL) carry?
The net debt of Metals Acquisition Corp is $43.2K (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 30, 2026