Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) (LION) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) $15.02, price $11.15, upside +34.7%, quality 31 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
57‑month range $5.59 – $16.40 · fair‑value band $10.34 – $32.01 · the $11.15 price screens below the $15.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Lionheart III Corp does not have significant operations. It intends to effect a merger, capital stock exchange, asset acquisition, stock purchase, reorganization, or similar business combination with one or more businesses or entities. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is based in Miami, Florida.
Stock analysis
Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) (LION) currently trades at $11.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.02, implying the stock looks roughly 25.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $16.02 per share, and 6 of the 9 models we run sit above the $11.15 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $12.73, and 3 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $10.34 (bear) to $32.01 (bull), the price of $11.15 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) reported revenue of $2.6B in FY2025 versus $2.7B in FY2021, a compound −0.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$198M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $3.9B · EPS (TTM) $−0.1700 · Net margin −7.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.7% · Free cash flow $11.4M · Net debt $3.8B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 22 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 89% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −59% fair-value upside, at 35%, LION screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $10.34Fair Value $15.02Bull $32.01
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.34/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+70.1%
’12
’13
’14
’15
’16
’17
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.0% (2020) → 5.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
more than +80 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.5% a year for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Shell Companies · 80 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/8 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score31 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+35% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets0% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)−8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Shell Companies median · lower = cheaper
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/FCF343.4× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA5.2× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)80· sector 21
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 99
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 0
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LION
Frequently asked questions
Is Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) (LION) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15.02 versus a price of $11.15, about +35% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of LION?
Our model-based fair value for Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) is $15.02 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.15.
What is the quality score of LION?
Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) has a Quality Score of 31/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) (LION)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $15.02 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.34, optimistic scenario $32.01. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $15.02, about +35% upside versus a price of $11.15 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $10.34, optimistic scenario $32.01. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What growth is priced into Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) (LION)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) would have to grow free cash flow by more than 80 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of LION use?
Our models discount Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) that is more than 80 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) (LION) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) grew +6.6 % a year. The price currently implies more than 80 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) (LION) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) (more than 80 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) (LION)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.35 %: that much free cash flow Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) (LION)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) it is $15.02 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $11.15. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, LION trades below its calculated fair value: price $11.15, fair value $15.02, a gap of about +35% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LION?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.15); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($15.02). For Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) the two are $3.87 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) worth?
The market values Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) at about $3.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $11.15; our models calculate a fair value of $15.02 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LION?
Our models span a range for Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.): cautious scenario $10.34, base $15.02, optimistic $32.01 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $11.15). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) (LION)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) (as of Sep 24, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 31/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LION from its 52-week high?
Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) trades at $11.15, about 32% below its 52-week high of $16.40 and 89% above the low of $5.91 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $15.02 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.)?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value AA Mission Acquisition Corp, Berto Acquisition Corp, Metals Acquisition Corp, Axiom Intelligence Acquisition Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $11.15, calculated fair value $15.02 (+35%), Quality Score 31/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LION calculated?
We run Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $15.02, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) currently trades 35 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) (LION)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $11.15. Our model-based fair value is $15.02, about +35% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (31/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide ($10.34 to $32.01). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.)
How large is the market capitalisation of Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) (LION)?
The market capitalisation of Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) is $3.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) (LION)?
Earnings per share at Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) are $−0.1700. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) (LION)?
The net margin of Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) is −7.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) (LION)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) is 2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much net debt does Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) (LION) carry?
The net debt of Lionsgate Studios Holding Corp. (to be renamed Lionsgate Studios Corp.) is $3.8B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026