Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd stock ZAR 35.99, price ZAR 38.77, that is 7.2% below the price, quality 49 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R10.58 – R41.26 · fair‑value band R27.60 – R54.25 · the R38.77 price screens above the R35.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 2, 2026.
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Momentum Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance and financial services in South Africa and internationally.
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It operates through Momentum Retail, Momentum Investments, Metropolitan Life, Momentum Corporate, Momentum Metropolitan Health, Guardrisk, Momentum Insure, Momentum Metropolitan Africa, India, and Shareholders segments.
The company offers long and short-term insurance; employee benefits; asset management, property management, investments, and savings; health administration services, such as managed care and wellness services.
It also provides insurance products, such as life, non-life, health, and annuities and structured products. The company operates under the Metropolitan, Momentum, Guardrisk, Eris, and other brands. The company was formerly known as Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Limited.
Momentum Group Limited is headquartered in Centurion, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM) currently trades at R38.77, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R35.99, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 7.7%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of R35.99 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the R38.77 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R16.61, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R27.60 (bear) to R54.25 (bull), the price of R38.77 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 177B ZAR in FY2026 versus 69.6B ZAR in FY2022, a compound +26.4%/yr. Reported net income was 6.6B ZAR in FY2026, compounding +15.7%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap 51.2B ZAR Mid · P/E ratio 7.6 · P/S ratio 0.80 · EPS (TTM) R5.08 · Dividend yield 5.9% · Net margin 10.4% · Return on equity 20.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 60 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at −7%, MTM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearR27.60Fair Value R35.99BullR54.25
Price R38.77 · Downside -7.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.9521 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.78/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+39.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.5% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +29.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+24.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 74.2% / 14.1%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 7%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2026 sits 84% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−2.0%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.1% a year for the price.
Compare Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Diversified · 73 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Below median
Fair Value upside−7.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)20.1% · Above median
Return on assets0.7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)10.4% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)22.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)6.3% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)5.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.21× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
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Is Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R35.99 versus a price of R38.77, about 7% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of MTM?
Our model-based fair value for Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd is R35.99 (as of Nov 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R38.77.
What is the quality score of MTM?
Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R35.99 (as of Nov 2, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario R27.60, optimistic scenario R54.25. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R35.99, about 7% lower versus a price of R38.77 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario R27.60, optimistic scenario R54.25. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM)?
Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 64.0B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Nov 2, 2026).
Does Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 5.93% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -2.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.5 % per year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MTM use?
Our models discount Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd at 11.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.24, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd that is -2.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd grew +10.5 % a year. The price currently implies -2.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (-2.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.48 %: that much free cash flow Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd it is R35.99 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026), against a price of R38.77. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 2, 2026, MTM trades above its calculated fair value: price R38.77, fair value R35.99, a gap of about −7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MTM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R38.77); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R35.99). For Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd the two are R2.78 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd at about 51.2B ZAR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 2, 2026). Per share that is R38.77; our models calculate a fair value of R35.99 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MTM?
Our models span a range for Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario R27.60, base R35.99, optimistic R54.25 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026, price R38.77). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MTM?
Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.6 (as of Nov 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R35.99 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 10.5. Other multiples: PEG 180.9, P/B 1.5, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 1.3.
What is the PEG ratio of MTM?
The PEG ratio of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd is 180.92 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 2, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (as of Nov 2, 2026): return on equity 20.1%, debt of 0.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MTM from its 52-week high?
Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd trades at R38.77, about 6% below its 52-week high of R41.26 and 24% above the low of R31.18 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R35.99 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Allianz SE, Zurich Insurance Group, AXA SA, Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 2, 2026: price R38.77, calculated fair value R35.99 (−7%), Quality Score 49/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MTM calculated?
We run Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R35.99, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was R38.77. Our model-based fair value is R35.99, about 7% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (R27.60 to R54.25) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM) come from?
Earnings per share at Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd grew +12.7 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.4 %, EBIT margin +1.8 %, tax rate +0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM)?
The market capitalisation of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd is 51.2B ZAR. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd is 0.80 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM)?
Earnings per share at Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd are R5.08 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM)?
The dividend yield of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd is 5.9% (payout 45.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM)?
The net margin of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd is 10.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd is 20.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd is 1.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM)?
The operating margin of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd is 22.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM)?
Revenue at Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd is growing +6.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +21.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM)?
Earnings per share at Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd are growing +26.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM) hold?
Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd holds more cash than debt, 29.5B ZAR net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 2, 2026