Muthoot Microfin Limited (MUTHOOTMF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Muthoot Microfin Limited ₹105, price ₹174, upside -39.9%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
33‑month range ₹121.07 – ₹266.15 · fair‑value band ₹85.05 – ₹215.99 · the ₹174.09 price screens above the ₹104.58 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
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Muthoot Microfin Limited, a non-deposit taking non-banking financial company, provides micro loans to women entrepreneurs in rural regions of India. The company offers income generating, Pragathi, and individual loans; education, mobile phones, solar lighting product, and household appliances product loans; sanitation improvement loans; and secured loans.
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Muthoot Microfin Limited, a non-deposit taking non-banking financial company, provides micro loans to women entrepreneurs in rural regions of India. The company offers income generating, Pragathi, and individual loans; education, mobile phones, solar lighting product, and household appliances product loans; sanitation improvement loans; and secured loans. It also provides value-added services, such as wellness combo and property insurance. The company was formerly known as Panchratna Securities Limited and changed its name to Muthoot Microfin Limited in October 2012. Muthoot Microfin Limited was incorporated in 1992 and is based in Kochi, India. Muthoot Microfin Limited is a subsidiary of Muthoot Fincorp Limited.
Stock analysis
Muthoot Microfin Limited (MUTHOOTMF) currently trades at ₹174.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹104.58, 39.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of ₹400.36 per share, and 3 of the 8 models we run sit above the ₹174.09 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at ₹26.69, and 5 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ₹85.05 (bear) to ₹215.99 (bull), the price of ₹174.09 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Muthoot Microfin Limited reported revenue of ₹10.2B in FY2025 versus ₹3.8B in FY2021, a compound +27.8%/yr. Reported net income was ₹991M in FY2025, compounding +20.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap ₹29.2B (≈ $303M) · P/E ratio 12.2 · P/S ratio 1.19 · EPS (TTM) ₹14.28 · Net margin 9.7% · Return on equity 6.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.4% · Operating margin 32.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −40%, MUTHOOTMF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹85.05Fair Value ₹104.58Bull ₹215.99
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹14.28 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−58.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +42.3% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+90.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+29.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+29.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.29.5% vs 5.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 26%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+20.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.0% a year for the price.
Compare Muthoot Microfin Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Credit Services · 331 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Below median
Fair Value upside−39.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6.2% · Below median
Return on assets1.5% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)21.0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)32.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth48.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity3.35× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Credit Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)12.2× · Pricier than median
P/B1.02× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)2.49× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF4.4× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA92.1× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 51
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 48
PAST (return on equity)25· sector 32
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 59
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 65
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Muthoot Microfin Limited (MUTHOOTMF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹104.58 versus a price of ₹174.09, about −40% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MUTHOOTMF?
Our model-based fair value for Muthoot Microfin Limited is ₹104.58 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹174.09.
What is the quality score of MUTHOOTMF?
Muthoot Microfin Limited has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Muthoot Microfin Limited (MUTHOOTMF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹104.58 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹85.05, optimistic scenario ₹215.99. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Muthoot Microfin Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹104.58, about −40% upside versus a price of ₹174.09 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹85.05, optimistic scenario ₹215.99. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Muthoot Microfin Limited (MUTHOOTMF)?
Muthoot Microfin Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹11.7B (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Muthoot Microfin Limited (MUTHOOTMF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Muthoot Microfin Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +20.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.8 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MUTHOOTMF use?
Our models discount Muthoot Microfin Limited at 12.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.66, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Muthoot Microfin Limited that is +20.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Muthoot Microfin Limited (MUTHOOTMF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Muthoot Microfin Limited grew +10.8 % a year. The price currently implies +20.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Muthoot Microfin Limited (MUTHOOTMF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Muthoot Microfin Limited (+20.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Muthoot Microfin Limited (MUTHOOTMF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 22.93 %: that much free cash flow Muthoot Microfin Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Muthoot Microfin Limited (MUTHOOTMF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Muthoot Microfin Limited it is ₹104.58 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of ₹174.09. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Muthoot Microfin Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, MUTHOOTMF trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹174.09, fair value ₹104.58, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MUTHOOTMF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹174.09); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹104.58). For Muthoot Microfin Limited the two are ₹69.51 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Muthoot Microfin Limited worth?
The market values Muthoot Microfin Limited at about ₹29.2B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is ₹174.09; our models calculate a fair value of ₹104.58 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MUTHOOTMF?
Our models span a range for Muthoot Microfin Limited: cautious scenario ₹85.05, base ₹104.58, optimistic ₹215.99 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price ₹174.09). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MUTHOOTMF?
Muthoot Microfin Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.2 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹104.58 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 2.5, EV/EBITDA 92.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Muthoot Microfin Limited (MUTHOOTMF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Muthoot Microfin Limited (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 6.2%, debt of 3.35 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MUTHOOTMF from its 52-week high?
Muthoot Microfin Limited trades at ₹174.09, about 32% below its 52-week high of ₹255.81 and 20% above the low of ₹145.46 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹104.58 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Muthoot Microfin Limited?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Visa Inc, Mastercard Incorporated, American Express Company, Capital One Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Muthoot Microfin Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price ₹174.09, calculated fair value ₹104.58 (−40%), Quality Score 48/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MUTHOOTMF calculated?
We run Muthoot Microfin Limited through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹104.58, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Muthoot Microfin Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Muthoot Microfin Limited (MUTHOOTMF)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹174.09. Our model-based fair value is ₹104.58, about −40% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Muthoot Microfin Limited right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (₹85.05 to ₹215.99) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Muthoot Microfin Limited (MUTHOOTMF) come from?
Earnings per share at Muthoot Microfin Limited grew +19.4 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +19.0 %, EBIT margin +3.1 %, tax rate +2.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −5.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Muthoot Microfin Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Muthoot Microfin Limited (MUTHOOTMF)?
The market capitalisation of Muthoot Microfin Limited is ₹29.2B (≈ $303M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Muthoot Microfin Limited (MUTHOOTMF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Muthoot Microfin Limited is 1.19 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Muthoot Microfin Limited (MUTHOOTMF)?
Earnings per share at Muthoot Microfin Limited are ₹14.28 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Muthoot Microfin Limited (MUTHOOTMF)?
The net margin of Muthoot Microfin Limited is 9.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Muthoot Microfin Limited (MUTHOOTMF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Muthoot Microfin Limited is 6.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Muthoot Microfin Limited (MUTHOOTMF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Muthoot Microfin Limited is 7.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Muthoot Microfin Limited (MUTHOOTMF)?
The operating margin of Muthoot Microfin Limited is 32.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Muthoot Microfin Limited (MUTHOOTMF)?
Revenue at Muthoot Microfin Limited is growing +48.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Muthoot Microfin Limited (MUTHOOTMF)?
Earnings per share at Muthoot Microfin Limited are growing +12.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Muthoot Microfin Limited (MUTHOOTMF) carry?
The net debt of Muthoot Microfin Limited is ₹85.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 12.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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