Mizuho Financial Group Inc (MZHOF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Mizuho Financial Group Inc $32.74, price $55.94, upside -41.5%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.89 – $58.93 · fair‑value band $27.69 – $46.38 · the $55.94 price screens above the $32.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
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Mizuho Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in banking, trust banking, securities, and other businesses related to financial services in Japan, the Americas, Europe, Asia/Oceania, and internationally.
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Mizuho Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in banking, trust banking, securities, and other businesses related to financial services in Japan, the Americas, Europe, Asia/Oceania, and internationally. It operates through Retail & Business Banking Company; Corporate & Investment Banking Company; Global Corporate & Investment Banking Company; Global Markets Company; Asset Management Company; and Others segments. The company provides deposit products; syndicated, housing, and card loans; business matching services; management of retirement payments; and advisory services related to overseas expansions, and mergers and acquisitions-related services. It also offers consulting services, including asset management and asset succession; payroll services; and sells lottery tickets issued by prefectures and ordinance-designated cities. In addition, it offers fund management, underwriting of equity and bonds, risk hedging products; solutions on capital management, business and financial strategy; real estate services; advisory services and solutions, such as advice on financial strategy and proposals on investment products to financial institutions; and financial services that include funding support and public bonds underwriting. Further, the company offers corporate finance and transaction banking services; sales and trading services; investment products; pension funds; and ALM and investment services, including stable capital raising and balance sheet management, as well as management of fixed income, equity, and other securities portfolios. Additionally, it provides online banking, cash management solutions, currency transaction, trade finance, custody, yen correspondence settlement, and research and consulting services; trust, securitization and structured finance, and stock transfer agency; and private banking and information technology-related services. Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Mizuho Financial Group Inc (MZHOF) currently trades at $55.94, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $32.74, 41.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $41.46 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $55.94 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $15.53, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $27.69 (bear) to $46.38 (bull), the price of $55.94 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Mizuho Financial Group Inc reported revenue of ¥9.0T in FY2026 versus ¥2.8T in FY2022, a compound +33.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥1.3T in FY2026, compounding +24.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $131B · P/E ratio 17.9 · P/S ratio 2.49 · EPS (TTM) $3.13 · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 14.0% · Return on equity 11.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 93% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −41%, MZHOF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $27.69Fair Value $32.74Bull $46.38
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.9% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
Compare Mizuho Financial Group Inc with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1060 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−36.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11.4% · Above median
Return on assets0.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)28.4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)32.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth16.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.85× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)17.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.81× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)4.68× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF44.5× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.86× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)84· sector 47
PAST (return on equity)46· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)8· sector 84
DIVIDEND (yield)35· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mizuho Financial Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MZHOF
Frequently asked questions
Is Mizuho Financial Group Inc (MZHOF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $32.74 versus a price of $55.94, about −41% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MZHOF?
Our model-based fair value for Mizuho Financial Group Inc is $32.74 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $55.94.
What is the quality score of MZHOF?
Mizuho Financial Group Inc has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mizuho Financial Group Inc (MZHOF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $32.74 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $27.69, optimistic scenario $46.38. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mizuho Financial Group Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $32.74, about −41% upside versus a price of $55.94 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $27.69, optimistic scenario $46.38. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mizuho Financial Group Inc (MZHOF)?
Mizuho Financial Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥4.4T (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Mizuho Financial Group Inc pay a dividend?
Mizuho Financial Group Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.77% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Mizuho Financial Group Inc (MZHOF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mizuho Financial Group Inc it is $32.74 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $55.94. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mizuho Financial Group Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, MZHOF trades above its calculated fair value: price $55.94, fair value $32.74, a gap of about −41% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MZHOF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($55.94); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($32.74). For Mizuho Financial Group Inc the two are $23.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mizuho Financial Group Inc worth?
The market values Mizuho Financial Group Inc at about $131B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $55.94; our models calculate a fair value of $32.74 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MZHOF?
Our models span a range for Mizuho Financial Group Inc: cautious scenario $27.69, base $32.74, optimistic $46.38 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $55.94). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MZHOF?
Mizuho Financial Group Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.9 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $32.74 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.9, P/B 1.8, P/S 4.7.
What is the PEG ratio of MZHOF?
The PEG ratio of Mizuho Financial Group Inc is 1.86 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mizuho Financial Group Inc (MZHOF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mizuho Financial Group Inc (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 11.4%, debt of 1.85 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MZHOF from its 52-week high?
Mizuho Financial Group Inc trades at $55.94, about 5% below its 52-week high of $58.93 and 93% above the low of $29.04 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $32.74 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mizuho Financial Group Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mizuho Financial Group Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $55.94, calculated fair value $32.74 (−41%), Quality Score 54/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MZHOF calculated?
We run Mizuho Financial Group Inc through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $32.74, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Mizuho Financial Group Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mizuho Financial Group Inc (MZHOF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $55.94. Our model-based fair value is $32.74, about −41% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mizuho Financial Group Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($46.38). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Mizuho Financial Group Inc (MZHOF) come from?
Earnings per share at Mizuho Financial Group Inc grew +9.4 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +17.8 %, EBIT margin −8.1 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Mizuho Financial Group Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Mizuho Financial Group Inc (MZHOF)?
The market capitalisation of Mizuho Financial Group Inc is $131B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mizuho Financial Group Inc (MZHOF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mizuho Financial Group Inc is 2.49 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mizuho Financial Group Inc (MZHOF)?
Earnings per share at Mizuho Financial Group Inc are $3.13 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mizuho Financial Group Inc (MZHOF)?
The dividend yield of Mizuho Financial Group Inc is 1.8% (payout 31.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mizuho Financial Group Inc (MZHOF)?
The net margin of Mizuho Financial Group Inc is 14.0% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mizuho Financial Group Inc (MZHOF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mizuho Financial Group Inc is 11.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mizuho Financial Group Inc (MZHOF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mizuho Financial Group Inc is 0.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mizuho Financial Group Inc (MZHOF)?
The operating margin of Mizuho Financial Group Inc is 32.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mizuho Financial Group Inc (MZHOF)?
Revenue at Mizuho Financial Group Inc is growing +16.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mizuho Financial Group Inc (MZHOF)?
Earnings per share at Mizuho Financial Group Inc are growing +680% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Mizuho Financial Group Inc (MZHOF) generate?
The free cash flow of Mizuho Financial Group Inc is ¥463B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Mizuho Financial Group Inc (MZHOF) carry?
The net debt of Mizuho Financial Group Inc is ¥4.4T (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 9.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 29, 2026