The Marzetti Company (MZTI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of The Marzetti Company stock $122, price $105, upside +16.6%, quality 73 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $99.19 – $201.73 · fair‑value band $86.23 – $173.59 · the $104.93 price screens below the $122.31 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
Follow The Marzetti in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether The Marzetti is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
The Marzetti Company engages in manufacturing and marketing of specialty food products for the retail and foodservice channels in the United States. It operates in two segments, Retail and Foodservice.
Show moreShow less
The company offers frozen garlic breads under the New York Bakery brand; frozen Parkerhouse style yeast and dinner rolls under the Sister Schubert's brand; salad dressings under the Marzetti, Cardini's, Marzetti Simply, and Girard's brands; vegetable and fruit dips under the Marzetti brand; croutons and salad toppings under the New York Bakery, Chatham Village, and Marzetti brands; and frozen pasta under the Marzetti Frozen Pasta brand.
It also manufactures and sells various products to brand license agreements, including Olive Garden dressings, Buffalo Wild Wings sauces, Chick-fil-A sauces and dressing, Texas Roadhouse steak sauces and frozen rolls, and Subway sauces.
The company sells its products through sales personnel, food brokers, and distributors to retailers and restaurants. The Marzetti Company was formerly known as Lancaster Colony Corporation and changed its name to The Marzetti Company in June 2025.
The company was founded in 1896 and is based in Westerville, Ohio.
Stock analysis
The Marzetti Company (MZTI) currently trades at $104.93, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $122.31, implying the stock looks roughly 14% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $139.50 per share, and 17 of the 25 models we run sit above the $104.93 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $59.01, and 8 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $86.23 (bear) to $173.59 (bull), the price of $104.93 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
The Marzetti Company reported revenue of $1.9B in FY2026 versus $1.7B in FY2022, a compound +3.6%/yr. Reported net income was $192M in FY2026, compounding +20.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $2.9B Mid · P/E ratio 16.6 · P/S ratio 1.50 · EPS (TTM) $6.34 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 9.1% · Return on equity 16.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.1% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 59 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at 17%, MZTI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$86.23Fair Value $122.31Bull$173.59
Price $104.93 · Upside +16.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.8398 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $98,109, on Jun 10, 2026. Over the same period, one person sold shares worth $233,975.
SaleLuis VisoStrategic Advisor to CEO2× since Jun 11, 2026: 2,218 shares, avg. $105.49$233,975Sep 10, 2026
BuyThomas K. PigottVP, CFO and Asst. Secretary900 shares at $109.01$98,109Jun 10, 2026
Plus 9 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.75/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.9% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+11.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.0% vs 5.2%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 12%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.1% a year for the price and +0.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The licensing model converting restaurant favorites into retail products drives growth with limited capital needs, while dependence on few partners and consumer shifts toward fresher options create tension around volume trends.
Main risk: Dependence on a small number of licensing partners together with potential consumer moves toward fresher options would hit demand volumes in the portfolio.
Marzetti generates much of its growth through a licensing model that turns restaurant favorites into retail products with limited capital needs. The recent New York Bakery Baked Bites launch extends this into frozen snacks to reach more at-home occasions. Yet dependence on a small number of partners and the risk that consumers move toward fresher options create real tension around volume trends. Will these extensions add enough new demand to reinforce the portfolio?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 627 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score73 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+16.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)16.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets15.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)9.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)8.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−2.4% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.19× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)16.6× · Pricier than median
P/B2.88× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)1.50× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)14.0× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "The Marzetti Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MZTI
Frequently asked questions
Is The Marzetti Company (MZTI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $122.31 versus a price of $104.93, about +17% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MZTI?
Our model-based fair value for The Marzetti Company is $122.31 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $104.93.
What is the quality score of MZTI?
The Marzetti Company has a Quality Score of 73/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for The Marzetti Company (MZTI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $122.31 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $86.23, optimistic scenario $173.59. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the The Marzetti Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $122.31, about +17% upside versus a price of $104.93 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $86.23, optimistic scenario $173.59. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of The Marzetti Company (MZTI)?
The Marzetti Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does The Marzetti Company pay a dividend?
The Marzetti Company currently shows a dividend yield of 3.81% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of The Marzetti Company (MZTI) and when is the ex-dividend date?
The Marzetti Company pays a dividend of $4.00 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.8%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 8, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1984. The payout ratio is 63.1% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.89 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into The Marzetti Company (MZTI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, The Marzetti Company would have to grow free cash flow by +0.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.6 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MZTI use?
Our models discount The Marzetti Company at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.33, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For The Marzetti Company that is +0.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has The Marzetti Company (MZTI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at The Marzetti Company grew +5.6 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +0.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of The Marzetti Company (MZTI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into The Marzetti Company (+0.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of The Marzetti Company (MZTI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.17 %: that much free cash flow The Marzetti Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of The Marzetti Company (MZTI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For The Marzetti Company it is $122.31 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $104.93. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is The Marzetti Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, MZTI trades below its calculated fair value: price $104.93, fair value $122.31, a gap of about +17% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MZTI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($104.93); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($122.31). For The Marzetti Company the two are $17.38 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is The Marzetti Company worth?
The market values The Marzetti Company at about $2.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $104.93; our models calculate a fair value of $122.31 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MZTI?
Our models span a range for The Marzetti Company: cautious scenario $86.23, base $122.31, optimistic $173.59 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $104.93). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MZTI?
The Marzetti Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.6 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $122.31 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, 4 of the years ex one-offs: 30.0. Other multiples: PEG 3.1, P/B 2.9, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 10.0.
What is the PEG ratio of MZTI?
The PEG ratio of The Marzetti Company is 3.12 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of The Marzetti Company (MZTI)?
Balance-sheet figures for The Marzetti Company (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 16.8%, debt of 0.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 73/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MZTI from its 52-week high?
The Marzetti Company trades at $104.93, about 38% below its 52-week high of $169.59 and 6% above the low of $99.19 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $122.31 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to The Marzetti Company?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is The Marzetti Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $104.93, calculated fair value $122.31 (+17%), Quality Score 73/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MZTI calculated?
We run The Marzetti Company through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $122.31 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. The Marzetti Company currently trades 14% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of The Marzetti Company (MZTI)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $104.93. Our model-based fair value is $122.31, about +17% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with The Marzetti Company right now?
A fairly wide model range ($86.23 to $173.59) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of The Marzetti Company (MZTI) come from?
Earnings per share at The Marzetti Company grew +4.8 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.6 %, EBIT margin −2.7 %, tax rate +1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of The Marzetti Company
How large is the market capitalisation of The Marzetti Company (MZTI)?
The market capitalisation of The Marzetti Company is $2.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of The Marzetti Company (MZTI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of The Marzetti Company is 1.50 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of The Marzetti Company (MZTI)?
Earnings per share at The Marzetti Company are $6.34 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of The Marzetti Company (MZTI)?
The dividend yield of The Marzetti Company is 3.8% (payout 63.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of The Marzetti Company (MZTI)?
The net margin of The Marzetti Company is 9.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of The Marzetti Company (MZTI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of The Marzetti Company is 16.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of The Marzetti Company (MZTI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of The Marzetti Company is 15.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of The Marzetti Company (MZTI)?
The operating margin of The Marzetti Company is 8.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at The Marzetti Company (MZTI)?
Revenue at The Marzetti Company is growing −2.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at The Marzetti Company (MZTI)?
Earnings per share at The Marzetti Company are growing −37.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does The Marzetti Company (MZTI) hold?
The Marzetti Company holds more cash than debt, $106M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch The Marzetti Company in the live analysis
One click puts The Marzetti Company on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Broad data
Nov 6, 2026