Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited (NCI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited $0.63, price $14.64, upside -95.7%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $0.6300 · Strongly overvalued (−96%)
!Quality 51/100
!Weak Growth(revenue 5y −5.5 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers(5/14)
!Narrow moat21/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
29‑month range $3.95 – $380.00 · fair‑value band $0.5600 – $0.6800 · the $14.64 price screens above the $0.6300 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited provides one-stop apparel solutions in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
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Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited provides one-stop apparel solutions in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company offers a suite of services in the apparel supply chain, including market trend analysis, product design and development, raw material sourcing, production and quality control, and logistics management services. It also sells knitwear and apparel products under the les 100 ciels brand through digital and physical retail stores, as well as third-party online platforms. The company serves brand owners, apparel sourcing agents, and online fashion retailers. Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited was incorporated in 2021 and is based in Kwun Tong, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares (NCI) currently trades at $14.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.6300, implying the stock looks roughly 2,225.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $5.01 per share, and 12 of the 22 models we run sit above the $14.64 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $1.20, and 10 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.5600 (bear) to $0.6800 (bull), the price of $14.64 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares reported revenue of HK$137M in FY2025 versus HK$241M in FY2021, a compound −13.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$332K in FY2025, compounding −50.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $26.0M · P/E ratio 137.6 · P/S ratio 0.33 · EPS (TTM) $0.0800 · Net margin 0.2% · Return on equity 0.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.9% · Operating margin −0.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 85% below its 52-week high and 270% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at −96%, NCI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.5600Fair Value $0.6300Bull $0.6800
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0587 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.38/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−41.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−26.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −17.3% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−1.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−21% vs −6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−2% → 1%
Compare Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Apparel Manufacturing · 228 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Below median
Fair Value upside−96% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−51% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Apparel Manufacturing median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)137.6× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.46× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.19× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF1.5× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA4.0× · Cheapest 25%
PEG1.13× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 37
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 4
PAST (return on equity)2· sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 57
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NCI
Frequently asked questions
Is Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited (NCI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.6300 versus a price of $14.64, about −96% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NCI?
Our model-based fair value for Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares is $0.6300 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.64.
What is the quality score of NCI?
Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited (NCI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.6300 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.5600, optimistic scenario $0.6800. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.6300, about −96% upside versus a price of $14.64 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.5600, optimistic scenario $0.6800. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited (NCI)?
Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $137M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited (NCI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares it is $0.6300 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $14.64. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, NCI trades above its calculated fair value: price $14.64, fair value $0.6300, a gap of about −96% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NCI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.64); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.6300). For Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares the two are $14.01 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares worth?
The market values Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares at about $26.0M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $14.64; our models calculate a fair value of $0.6300 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NCI?
Our models span a range for Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares: cautious scenario $0.5600, base $0.6300, optimistic $0.6800 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $14.64). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NCI?
Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 137.6 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $0.6300 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 0.5, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 4.0.
What is the PEG ratio of NCI?
The PEG ratio of Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares is 1.13 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited (NCI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 0.6%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NCI from its 52-week high?
Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares trades at $14.64, about 85% below its 52-week high of $96.00 and 270% above the low of $3.95 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.6300 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Ralph Lauren Corporation, Moncler S.p.A, Gildan Activewear Inc, LPP SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $14.64, calculated fair value $0.6300 (−96%), Quality Score 51/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NCI calculated?
We run Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.6300, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited (NCI)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $14.64. Our model-based fair value is $0.6300, about −96% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.6800). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited (NCI) come from?
Earnings per share at Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares grew +7.9 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +20.7 %, EBIT margin −9.6 %, tax rate +1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares
How large is the market capitalisation of Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited (NCI)?
The market capitalisation of Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares is $26.0M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited (NCI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares is 0.33 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited (NCI)?
Earnings per share at Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares are $0.0800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 137.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited (NCI)?
The net margin of Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares is 0.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited (NCI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares is 0.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited (NCI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares is 17.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited (NCI)?
The operating margin of Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares is −0.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited (NCI)?
Revenue at Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares is growing −50.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −26.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited (NCI)?
Earnings per share at Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares are growing +34.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited (NCI) generate?
The free cash flow of Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares is $17.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited (NCI) carry?
The net debt of Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares is $44.1M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026