Nedbank Group (NDBKY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Nedbank Group $16.19, price $17.13, upside -5.5%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.46 – $19.22 · fair‑value band $12.14 – $20.23 · the $17.13 price screens above the $16.19 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Nedbank Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides various wholesale and retail banking services in South Africa, rest of Africa, Europe, Asia, the United States, and internationally.
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Nedbank Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides various wholesale and retail banking services in South Africa, rest of Africa, Europe, Asia, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through Nedbank Corporate and Investment Banking; Nedbank Business and Commercial Banking; Nedbank Personal and Private Banking; Nedbank Africa Regions; and Centre segments. It offers lending products, advisory services, leverage financing, trading, brokering, structuring, hedging, and client coverage; corporate finance advisory, innovative financial products and services, customised transactional banking, asset management, and commercial property finance; transactional accounts, home loans, vehicle and asset finance, card services, personal loans, insurance and investments; Wealth services include trust and estate planning, stockbroking, and financial planning, as well as tailored banking and services; and franchising and manufacturing industries and public sector. The company also provides life and non-life insurance; asset management; trust and estate planning, stockbroking, and financial planning wealth management services. In addition, it offers capital management, funding, and liquidity risk management. The company was formerly known as Nedcor Limited and changed its name to Nedbank Group Limited in 2005. Nedbank Group Limited was founded in 1831 and is headquartered in Sandton, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Nedbank Group (NDBKY) currently trades at $17.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.19, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 5.8%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $19.64 per share, and 3 of the 6 models we run sit above the $17.13 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $10.04, and 3 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $12.14 (bear) to $20.23 (bull), the price of $17.13 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Nedbank Group reported revenue of 149B ZAR in FY2025 versus 51.6B ZAR in FY2021, a compound +30.4%/yr. Reported net income was 8.6B ZAR in FY2025, compounding −8.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $8.1B · P/E ratio 16.9 · P/S ratio 0.97 · EPS (TTM) $1.01 · Dividend yield 7.4% · Net margin 5.7% · Return on equity 7.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −5%, NDBKY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $12.14Fair Value $16.19Bull $20.23
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+121.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.2% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+1.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−6.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−6.1% vs −1.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.32% → 9%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (26 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1052 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside+6.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7.4% · Below median
Return on assets0.6% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)13.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)17.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−19.4% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)7.4% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nedbank Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NDBKY
Frequently asked questions
Is Nedbank Group (NDBKY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $16.19 versus a price of $17.13, about −5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of NDBKY?
Our model-based fair value for Nedbank Group is $16.19 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $17.13.
What is the quality score of NDBKY?
Nedbank Group has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nedbank Group (NDBKY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $16.19 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $12.14, optimistic scenario $20.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nedbank Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $16.19, about −5% upside versus a price of $17.13 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $12.14, optimistic scenario $20.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nedbank Group (NDBKY)?
Nedbank Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 59.9B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Nedbank Group pay a dividend?
Nedbank Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.37% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Nedbank Group (NDBKY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nedbank Group it is $16.19 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $17.13. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nedbank Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, NDBKY trades above its calculated fair value: price $17.13, fair value $16.19, a gap of about −5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NDBKY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($17.13); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($16.19). For Nedbank Group the two are $0.9400 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nedbank Group worth?
The market values Nedbank Group at about $8.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $17.13; our models calculate a fair value of $16.19 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NDBKY?
Our models span a range for Nedbank Group: cautious scenario $12.14, base $16.19, optimistic $20.23 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $17.13). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NDBKY?
Nedbank Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $16.19 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 2.2, EV/EBITDA 5.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nedbank Group (NDBKY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nedbank Group (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 7.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NDBKY from its 52-week high?
Nedbank Group trades at $17.13, about 11% below its 52-week high of $19.22 and 39% above the low of $12.31 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $16.19 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nedbank Group?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nedbank Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $17.13, calculated fair value $16.19 (−5%), Quality Score 59/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NDBKY calculated?
We run Nedbank Group through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $16.19, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Nedbank Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nedbank Group (NDBKY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $17.13. Our model-based fair value is $16.19, about −5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nedbank Group right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Nedbank Group (NDBKY) come from?
Earnings per share at Nedbank Group grew +3.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.8 %, EBIT margin −12.4 %, tax rate +0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +8.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Nedbank Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Nedbank Group (NDBKY)?
The market capitalisation of Nedbank Group is $8.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nedbank Group (NDBKY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nedbank Group is 0.97 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nedbank Group (NDBKY)?
Earnings per share at Nedbank Group are $1.01 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nedbank Group (NDBKY)?
The dividend yield of Nedbank Group is 7.4% (payout 125%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nedbank Group (NDBKY)?
The net margin of Nedbank Group is 5.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nedbank Group (NDBKY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nedbank Group is 7.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nedbank Group (NDBKY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nedbank Group is 3.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nedbank Group (NDBKY)?
The operating margin of Nedbank Group is 17.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nedbank Group (NDBKY)?
Revenue at Nedbank Group is growing −19.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nedbank Group (NDBKY)?
Earnings per share at Nedbank Group are growing −94.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Nedbank Group (NDBKY) generate?
The free cash flow of Nedbank Group is 98.8B ZAR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Nedbank Group (NDBKY) carry?
The net debt of Nedbank Group is 48.3B ZAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026