Nine Entertainment Co. Holdings Ltd (NEC) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · AU · Market cap A$1.5B (≈ $1.1B) · ISIN AU000000NEC4
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 17 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from A$1.44 to A$2.87 (+99.3%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price −2.0% over the past month.
A solid business, trading 66% below our fair value.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$1.84). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (A$1.84 to A$3.91) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.7042 – A$1.67 · fair‑value band A$1.84 – A$3.91 · the A$0.9700 price screens below the A$2.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Nine Entertainment Co. Holdings Ltd (NEC) currently trades at A$0.9700, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$2.87, implying the stock looks roughly 195.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Nine Entertainment Co. Holdings Ltd generated revenue of A$2.6B at a net margin of 34.9%. Revenue declined 4.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.1%. Net debt stands at A$917M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$1.84 (bear case) to A$3.91 (bull case); at A$0.9700, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at -51% fair-value upside, at 196%, NEC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (A$4.63) versus Asset-Based (A$0.6600). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Nine Entertainment Co. Holdings Limited engages in the broadcasting and program production businesses across free to air television, video on demand, and metropolitan radio networks in Australia. The company operates through Broadcasting, Publishing, Domain Group, and Stan segments.
Full company description
Nine Entertainment Co. Holdings Limited engages in the broadcasting and program production businesses across free to air television, video on demand, and metropolitan radio networks in Australia. The company operates through Broadcasting, Publishing, Domain Group, and Stan segments. It offers television services under the brands, including 9Network, Channel 9, 9Gem, 9Go!, 9Life, and 9Rush; video on demand platform under 9Now brand; radio stations under 2GB, 3AW, 4BC, and 6PR brands; and publishes newspapers, news-inserted magazines, digital, and events, as well as nine.com.au, a site of news, lifestyle, sport, and entertainment content. The company also provides mastheads under The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, Brisbane Times, The Australian Financial Review and magzine, WA Today, Fin Magzine, Good Food, Good Weekend, Sunday Life, Traveller, Leisure and Life, AFR weekend, The Guide/Green Guide, Wide World Of Sports,9Honey, 9Travel, 9Travel Reviews, Domain Group, Drive, Fututre Women, The Sun-Herald, The Sunday Age, Drive, and Pedestrian group brands. In addition, it offers real estate media and technology services. Nine Entertainment Co. Holdings Limited was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in North Sydney, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Nine Entertainment Co. Holdings Ltd reported revenue of A$2.7B in FY2025 versus A$2.3B in FY2021, a compound +3.7%/yr. Reported net income was A$104M in FY2025, compounding −11.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +7.3 % · buybacks/dilution −6.6 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch NEC: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Entertainment · 269 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Entertainment median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Entertainment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netflix, Inc NFLX | $81.72 | $49.35 | -40% |
| The Walt Disney Company DIS | $103.50 | $80.62 | -22% |
| Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc WBD | $27.65 | $9.03 | -67% |
| Live Nation Entertainment, Inc LYV | $182.02 | $59.97 | -67% |
| Universal Music Group UMG | €14.73 | €14.78 | +0% |
| TKO Group TKO | $195.14 | $47.75 | -76% |
| Formula One Group FWONK | $102.02 | $35.21 | -65% |
| Fox Corporation FOXA | $68.42 | $206.81 | +202% |
| News Corporation NWS | A$46.55 | A$20.41 | -56% |
| Warner Music Group WMG | $24.79 | $12.10 | -51% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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