New Hope Corporation (NHC) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · AU · Market cap A$4.4B
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price −5.4% over the past month.
Price vs Fair Value (12 months)
12‑month range A$3.73 – A$6.17 · fair‑value band A$3.47 – A$8.14 · the A$5.23 price screens above the A$4.64 fair value. As of Jul 19, 2026.
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New Hope Corporation (NHC) currently trades at A$5.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$4.64, implying the stock looks roughly 11.3% overvalued today. We read business quality at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, New Hope Corporation generated revenue of A$1.6B at a net margin of 9.6%. Revenue declined 20.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.8%. Net debt stands at A$41.0M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$3.47 (bear case) to A$8.14 (bull case); at A$5.23, the current price sits within that range. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at -11%, NHC screens cheaper than that median.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
About the company
New Hope Corporation Limited engages in the development and operation of coal mines. It operates through three segments: Coal Mining in Queensland, Coal Mining in New South Wales, and Other. The company holds interests in the New Acland mine, an open-cut thermal coal mine located in north-west of Oakey, southeast Queensland; Queensland Bulk Handling is a 12 million tonnes per annum coal export facility; and Bengalla mine, an open-cut coal mine situated near Muswellbrook, New South Wales. It also engages in port handling and logistics, investment in coal mines, and agriculture activities, as well as development and production of oil and gas. In addition, the company holds interests in the Bengalla exploration license situated in New South Wales; West Muswellbrook assessment lease located to the west of Muswellbrook, New South Wales; Maxwell Mine situated on south of Muswellbrook, New South Wales; and various undeveloped coal assets, including the North Surat Coal project and Bee …
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
New Hope Corporation reported revenue of A$1.8B in FY2025 versus A$1.0B in FY2021, a compound +14.0%/yr. Reported net income was A$439M in FY2025, compounding +53.4%/yr from FY2021.
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10 more Thermal Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
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|---|---|---|---|
| China Shenhua Energy Company CUAEF | $6.32 | $4.37 | -31% |
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| Coal India Limited COALINDIA | ₹449.00 | ₹551.93 | +23% |
| China Coal Energy Company 601898 | ¥15.84 | ¥20.15 | +27% |
| Inner Mongolia Dian Tou Energy Corporation 002128 | ¥25.87 | ¥23.01 | -11% |
| Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co 601699 | ¥17.06 | ¥8.42 | -51% |
| Inner Mongolia Yitai Coal Co 900948 | $2.56 | $2.19 | -14% |
| PT Bumi Resources Tbk, PBMRY | $2.23 | $0.7000 | -69% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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Not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.