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China Shenhua Energy Company (CUAEF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of China Shenhua Energy Company $4.57, price $5.77, upside -20.8%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? No
Good quality? Yes
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Energy · US · ISIN CNE1000002R0

Some data Sep 29, 2026

China Shenhua Energy Company

CUAEF · US

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value $4.57 · Overvalued (−20.8%)

✓Quality 62/100

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +4.8 %/yr)

✓Solidly profitable · 17.8% net margin (TTM)

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

!4.5% dividend yield · Pays more than it earns

!Moderate moat 47/100

!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.3866 – $6.32 · fair‑value band $3.18 – $6.39 · the $5.77 price screens above the $4.57 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Company profile

China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of coal and electricity in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company operates through six segments: Coal Operations, Power Operations, Railway Operations, Port Operations, Shipping Operations, and Coal Chemical Operations. The Coal Operations segment produces and sells coal from surface and underground mines. The Power Operations segment generates and sells electric power to power grid companies. This segment also generates electric power through coal, thermal, water, photovoltaic, and gas. The Railway Operations segment provides railway transportation services. The Port Operations segment offers loading, transportation, and storage services. The Shipping Operations segment provides shipment transportation services. The Coal Chemical Operations segment produces methanol; and processes and sells polyethylene and polypropylene, as well as other by-products. It is also involved in coal-to-olefins businesses. China Shenhua Energy Company Limited was incorporated in 2004 and is based in Beijing, the People's Republic of China. China Shenhua Energy Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of Chnenergy Investment Group Co.,LTD.

Stock analysis

China Shenhua Energy Company (CUAEF) currently trades at $5.77, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.57, 20.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $7.04 per share, and 4 of the 25 models we run sit above the $5.77 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.06, and 21 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $3.18 (bear) to $6.39 (bull), the price of $5.77 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

China Shenhua Energy Company reported revenue of 295B CNY in FY2025 versus 335B CNY in FY2021, a compound −3.2%/yr. Reported net income was 52.8B CNY in FY2025, compounding +1.4%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $137B · P/E ratio 16.6 · P/S ratio 2.98 · EPS (TTM) $0.3800 · Dividend yield 4.5% · Net margin 17.9% · Return on equity 11.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −53% fair-value upside, at −21%, CUAEF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $3.18 Fair Value $4.57 Bull $6.39

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

FCF DCF $2.84 $3.95 $5.57 78

Growth DCF $2.90 $3.92 $5.32 77

Owner Earnings $2.96 $4.13 $5.83 74

All 25 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF $2.84 $3.95 $5.57 78

Owner Earnings $2.96 $4.13 $5.83 74

5Y Revenue Exit $2.47 $3.46 $4.68 71

5Y EBITDA Exit $3.17 $4.73 $6.48 73

5Y P/E Exit $3.70 $5.68 $7.68 69

10Y Revenue Exit $2.53 $3.45 $4.60 65

10Y EBITDA Exit $3.03 $4.31 $5.93 67

10Y P/E Exit $3.36 $4.96 $6.81 62

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd $2.70 $6.96 $9.06 63

PEG = 1.0 $1.31 $1.87 $2.43 55

EPV $4.48 $5.14 $5.72 74

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM $4.60 $9.05 $15.16 64

DDM Multi-Stage $4.60 $7.04 $9.66 64

Multiples

P/E Multiple $4.17 $5.56 $6.95 63

P/S Multiple $1.99 $2.66 $3.32 58

P/B Multiple $4.15 $5.53 $6.92 55

EV/EBIT $4.57 $5.93 $7.28 66

EV/EBITDA $3.75 $4.83 $5.91 67

EV/Revenue $2.38 $3.17 $3.97 54

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) $1.54 $2.06 $3.07 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF $2.90 $3.92 $5.32 77

Rev-Margin DCF $2.47 $3.48 $4.60 71

Economic Profit

Residual Income $2.93 $3.45 $4.44 74

ROIC Compounder $4.67 $5.68 $6.84 70

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E $3.37 $4.82 $6.26 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 62/100

Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63

Profitability 48

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 42

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 49

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 80

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 71

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 92

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 45

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 62

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 82

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100

Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Revenue growth 1 year

−12.8%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

−5.1%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+4.8%

Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.2% a year

Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+10.1%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.

+8.6%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year+4.1%

Dividend (yield on the price)4.5%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4.1% vs 8.8%, slowing

Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.27% → 24%

Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price

The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.

What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).

+9.9%

Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.

What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.

+3.0%

Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.

After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.1% a year for the price and +1.3% for the forecasts.

Forecast 2026 (sales)+9.1%

Forecast 2027 (sales)+1.4%

Projected 2028 (sales)+1.5%

Projected 2029 (sales)+1.5%

Projected 2030 (sales)+1.6%

CUAEF screens overvalued: fair value 21% below the price. Compare with Adani Enterprises Limited →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (42 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Negative

Recent news coverage is more negative than average.

Has China Shenhua Energy (SEHK:1088) Become Fully Priced on Earnings? Yahoo Finance · Sep 17, 2026
Here's Why China Shenhua Energy Co. (CSUAY) Is a Great 'Buy the Bottom' Stock Now Yahoo Finance · Jun 19, 2026
Global Anthracite Market to Grow by $4.9 Billion During 2026-2035: China Shenhua Energy Co., Yanzhou Coal Mining Co., and Mechel PAO Dominat Yahoo Finance · Apr 10, 2026
Coal miner China Shenhua gets approval for $19B asset acquisition plan Seeking Alpha · Feb 13, 2026

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Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Coal Oil & gas

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China Shenhua Energy Company · Fair Value
$4.57 −21%Fair Value
Calculator →

<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CUAEF" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">China Shenhua Energy Company · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">$4.57</b> <span style="color:#e0816f;font-weight:700;font-size:14px">−21%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Shenhua Energy Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CUAEF

Frequently asked questions

Is China Shenhua Energy Company (CUAEF) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.57 versus a price of $5.77, about −21% upside (overvalued).

What is the fair value of CUAEF?

Our model-based fair value for China Shenhua Energy Company is $4.57 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.77.

What is the quality score of CUAEF?

China Shenhua Energy Company has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for China Shenhua Energy Company (CUAEF)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.57 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.18, optimistic scenario $6.39. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the China Shenhua Energy Company stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at $4.57, about −21% upside versus a price of $5.77 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.18, optimistic scenario $6.39. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of China Shenhua Energy Company (CUAEF)?

China Shenhua Energy Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 296B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).

Does China Shenhua Energy Company pay a dividend?

China Shenhua Energy Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.54% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).

What growth is priced into China Shenhua Energy Company (CUAEF)?

For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Shenhua Energy Company would have to grow free cash flow by +9.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.8 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.

What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CUAEF use?

Our models discount China Shenhua Energy Company at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.38, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.

What is a reverse DCF?

A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Shenhua Energy Company that is +9.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.

How much growth has China Shenhua Energy Company (CUAEF) delivered so far?

Over the past 5 years revenue at China Shenhua Energy Company grew +4.8 % a year. The price currently implies +9.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.

How fast is the sector of China Shenhua Energy Company (CUAEF) growing?

The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Shenhua Energy Company (+9.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.

What is the free cash flow yield of China Shenhua Energy Company (CUAEF)?

The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.47 %: that much free cash flow China Shenhua Energy Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.

What is the intrinsic value of China Shenhua Energy Company (CUAEF)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Shenhua Energy Company it is $4.57 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $5.77. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is China Shenhua Energy Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 29, 2026, CUAEF trades above its calculated fair value: price $5.77, fair value $4.57, a gap of about −21% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of CUAEF?

No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.77); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.57). For China Shenhua Energy Company the two are $1.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is China Shenhua Energy Company worth?

The market values China Shenhua Energy Company at about $137B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $5.77; our models calculate a fair value of $4.57 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CUAEF?

Our models span a range for China Shenhua Energy Company: cautious scenario $3.18, base $4.57, optimistic $6.39 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $5.77). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

How far is CUAEF from its 52-week high?

China Shenhua Energy Company trades at $5.77, about 9% below its 52-week high of $6.32 and 23% above the low of $4.70 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.57 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to China Shenhua Energy Company?

From the same area (Energy) we also value Adani Enterprises Limited, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company, Yankuang Energy Group, China Coal Energy Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is China Shenhua Energy Company stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $5.77, calculated fair value $4.57 (−21%), Quality Score 62/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of CUAEF calculated?

We run China Shenhua Energy Company through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.57, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. China Shenhua Energy Company itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of China Shenhua Energy Company (CUAEF)?

The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $5.77. Our model-based fair value is $4.57, about −21% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with China Shenhua Energy Company right now?

Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($3.18 to $6.39) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Where does the earnings growth of China Shenhua Energy Company (CUAEF) come from?

Earnings per share at China Shenhua Energy Company grew +9.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.4 %, EBIT margin +2.1 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of China Shenhua Energy Company

How large is the market capitalisation of China Shenhua Energy Company (CUAEF)?

The market capitalisation of China Shenhua Energy Company is $137B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/E ratio of China Shenhua Energy Company (CUAEF)?

The price-to-earnings ratio of China Shenhua Energy Company is 16.6 (as of Jun 19, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.

What is the P/S ratio of China Shenhua Energy Company (CUAEF)?

The price-to-sales ratio of China Shenhua Energy Company is 2.98 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of China Shenhua Energy Company (CUAEF)?

Earnings per share at China Shenhua Energy Company are $0.3800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of China Shenhua Energy Company (CUAEF)?

The dividend yield of China Shenhua Energy Company is 4.5% (payout 68.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of China Shenhua Energy Company (CUAEF)?

The net margin of China Shenhua Energy Company is 17.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of China Shenhua Energy Company (CUAEF)?

The return on equity (ROE) of China Shenhua Energy Company is 11.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of China Shenhua Energy Company (CUAEF)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Shenhua Energy Company is 13.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of China Shenhua Energy Company (CUAEF)?

The operating margin of China Shenhua Energy Company is 25.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at China Shenhua Energy Company (CUAEF)?

Revenue at China Shenhua Energy Company is growing +1.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at China Shenhua Energy Company (CUAEF)?

Earnings per share at China Shenhua Energy Company are growing −12.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much net cash does China Shenhua Energy Company (CUAEF) hold?

China Shenhua Energy Company holds more cash than debt, 67.1B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.

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