Nicolet Bankshares, Inc (NIC) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $3.5B
Nicolet Bankshares, Inc
NIC · US
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Share price +6.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 47% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($115.22). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $51.92 – $175.13 · fair‑value band $69.13 – $115.22 · the $172.54 price screens above the $92.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
Nicolet Bankshares, Inc (NIC) currently trades at $172.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $92.18, implying the stock looks roughly 46.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Nicolet Bankshares, Inc generated revenue of $429M at a net margin of 31.1%. Revenue grew 46.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $525M. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $69.13 (bear case) to $115.22 (bull case); at $172.54, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at -47%, NIC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($82.85) versus Dividend Discount ($13.28). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Nicolet National Bank that provides banking products and services for businesses and individuals in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota. The company accepts demand deposits, checking, savings, and money market accounts; various certificates of deposit; and individual retirement accounts.
Full company description
Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Nicolet National Bank that provides banking products and services for businesses and individuals in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota. The company accepts demand deposits, checking, savings, and money market accounts; various certificates of deposit; and individual retirement accounts. It also offers commercial loans, including commercial, industrial, and business loans and lines of credit; commercial real estate loans; agricultural (AG) production and AG real estate loans; commercial real estate investment loans; construction and land development loans; residential real estate loans, such as residential first lien and junior lien mortgages, home equity loans, and residential construction loans; and consumer loans. In addition, the company provides cash management, international banking, personal brokerage, safe deposit boxes, and trust and fiduciary services, as well as wealth management and retirement plan services. Further, it offers mortgage refinancing; online services, such as commercial, retail, and trust online banking; automated bill payment, mobile banking deposits and account access, and remote deposit capture services; and other services consisting of wire transfers, debit cards, credit cards, pre-paid gift cards, direct deposits, and official bank checks, as well as facilitates crop insurance products. The company was formerly known as Green Bay Financial Corporation and changed its name to Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. in March 2002. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Green Bay, Wisconsin.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Nicolet Bankshares, Inc reported revenue of $553M in FY2025 versus $239M in FY2021, a compound +23.3%/yr. Reported net income was $151M in FY2025, compounding +25.5%/yr from FY2021.
NIC screens 47% overvalued. Compare with PT Bank Central Asia Tbk →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Nicolet Bankshares (NIC) Stock Looks Below Fair Value As 143% Run Holds
- Nicolet Bankshares (NIC) Could Be 56% Undervalued As Dividend And Buyback News Lands
- Nicolet Bankshares declares $0.36 dividend
- Does Earnings Beat And Expanded Buyback Authorization Change The Bull Case For Nicolet Bankshares (NIC)?
Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1083 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA | 6,175 IDR | 6,087 IDR | -1% |
| KB Financial Group 105560 | 184,400 KRW | 213,797 KRW | +16% |
| PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI | 2,970 IDR | 4,891 IDR | +65% |
| PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI | 4,310 IDR | 7,841 IDR | +82% |
| Banco Bradesco S.A BBD | 5,120 ARS | 10,240 ARS | +100% |
| Shinhan Financial Group 055550 | 107,900 KRW | 137,259 KRW | +27% |
| Hana Financial Group 086790 | 136,800 KRW | 193,969 KRW | +42% |
| Lloyds Banking Group LYG | 4,138 ARS | 8,275 ARS | +100% |
| Banco de Chile, CHILE | 193.10 CLP | 152.55 CLP | -21% |
| Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, VCB | 59,400 VND | 84,201 VND | +42% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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