Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. (NLB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. €41.34, price €44.50, upside -7.1%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €7.43 – €47.00 · fair‑value band €34.78 – €72.95 · the €44.50 price screens above the €41.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking services for retail and corporate clients in Slovenia, South East Europe, and Western Europe.
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Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking services for retail and corporate clients in Slovenia, South East Europe, and Western Europe. It operates through Retail Banking in Slovenia, Corporate and Investment Banking in Slovenia, Strategic Foreign Markets, Financial Markets in Slovenia, Non-Core Members, and Other segments. The company offers saving, deposits, and business accounts; and personal, home, and green housing loans. It also provides credit, debit, and deferred payment cards, as well as other services; savings and investment products; security trading; and digital services. In addition, the company offers life, health, investment, accident, disability, home, and car insurance products; and asset management, and personal and private banking services. Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. was founded in 1889 and is based in Ljubljana, Slovenia.
Stock analysis
Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. (NLB) currently trades at €44.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €41.34, implying the stock looks roughly 7.6% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €52.94 per share, and 2 of the 4 models we run sit above the €44.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €25.34, and 2 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €34.78 (bear) to €72.95 (bull), the price of €44.50 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. reported revenue of €1.4B in FY2025 versus €704M in FY2021, a compound +17.8%/yr. Reported net income was €503M in FY2025, compounding +20.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €1.1B · P/E ratio 0.0 · EPS (TTM) €4.98 · Net margin 37.1% · Return on equity 13.9% · Return on assets 1.7% · Operating margin 50.5% · Revenue (TTM) €1.3B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −7%, NLB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €34.78Fair Value €41.34Bull €72.95
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€3.64 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+16.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+16.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.4% a year for the forecasts.
Compare Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Fair Value upside−7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)14% · Top 25%
Return on assets2% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)38% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)51% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
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Is Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. (NLB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €41.34 versus a price of €44.50, about −7% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of NLB?
Our model-based fair value for Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. is €41.34 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €44.50.
What is the quality score of NLB?
Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. (NLB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €41.34 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario €34.78, optimistic scenario €72.95. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €41.34, about −7% upside versus a price of €44.50 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario €34.78, optimistic scenario €72.95. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. (NLB)?
Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €1.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. (NLB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +21.6 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NLB use?
Our models discount Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.50, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. (NLB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. grew +21.6 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. (NLB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. (NLB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 40.61 %: that much free cash flow Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. (NLB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. it is €41.34 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €44.50. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, NLB trades above its calculated fair value: price €44.50, fair value €41.34, a gap of about −7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NLB?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€44.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€41.34). For Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. the two are €3.16 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. worth?
The market values Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. at about €1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €44.50; our models calculate a fair value of €41.34 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NLB?
Our models span a range for Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d.: cautious scenario €34.78, base €41.34, optimistic €72.95 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €44.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NLB?
Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.0 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €41.34 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. (NLB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 13.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NLB from its 52-week high?
Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. trades at €44.50, about 5% below its 52-week high of €47.00 and 46% above the low of €30.45 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €41.34 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €44.50, calculated fair value €41.34 (−7%), Quality Score 59/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NLB calculated?
We run Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €41.34, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. (NLB)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was €44.50. Our model-based fair value is €41.34, about −7% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (€34.78 to €72.95) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d.
How large is the market capitalisation of Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. (NLB)?
The market capitalisation of Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. is €1.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. (NLB)?
Earnings per share at Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. are €4.98 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. (NLB)?
The net margin of Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. is 37.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. (NLB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. is 13.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the return on assets of Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. (NLB)?
The return on assets (ROA) of Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. is 1.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to everything the company owns. Harder to inflate than return on equity because debt does not boost it.
What is the operating margin of Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. (NLB)?
The operating margin of Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. is 50.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. (NLB)?
Revenue at Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. is growing +1.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. (NLB)?
Earnings per share at Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. are growing −5.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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