Nomura Holdings Inc. (NMRH34) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Nomura Holdings Inc. BRL 35.66, price BRL 52.40, upside -32.0%, quality 36 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Nomura Holdings Inc. for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$15.01 – R$52.95 · fair‑value band R$26.74 – R$44.57 · the R$52.40 price screens above the R$35.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Follow Nomura Holdings in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Nomura Holdings is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Nomura Holdings, Inc. engages in the provision of investment, financing, and related services to individual, institutional, and government clients worldwide. It operates through three segments: Wealth Management, Investment Management, and Wholesale. The Wealth Management segment offers asset management services.
Show more
Nomura Holdings, Inc. engages in the provision of investment, financing, and related services to individual, institutional, and government clients worldwide. It operates through three segments: Wealth Management, Investment Management, and Wholesale. The Wealth Management segment offers asset management services. The Investment Management segment provides investment management services and investment solutions, such as establishing and managing investment trusts, discretionary investment services, investment and management for investment vehicles, funds for institutional investors, and management of silent partnerships. The Wholesale segment is involved in the sales and trading of debt and equity securities, foreign exchange; offers investment banking services, including underwriting and distribution of debt and equity securities, mergers and acquisitions, and financial advisory services. Nomura Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 1925 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Nomura Holdings Inc. (NMRH34) currently trades at R$52.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$35.66, 32.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 14 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at medium.
Scenario range: R$26.74 (bear) to R$44.57 (bull), the price of R$52.40 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Nomura Holdings Inc. reported revenue of ¥1.8T in FY2026 versus ¥1.1T in FY2022, a compound +12.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥362B in FY2026, compounding +26.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap R$152B (≈ $29.1B) · P/E ratio 13.8 · P/S ratio 2.70 · EPS (TTM) R$3.81 · Dividend yield 2.5% · Net margin 19.7% · Return on equity 10.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at −32%, NMRH34 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$26.74Fair Value R$35.66Bull R$44.57
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.37/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−61.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+25.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+23.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.5%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 10%
2026 sits 124% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (90 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 462 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+4.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10.1% · Above median
Return on assets0.6% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)16.7% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)19.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth27.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity4.30× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nomura Holdings Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NMRH34
Frequently asked questions
Is Nomura Holdings Inc. (NMRH34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$35.66 versus a price of R$52.40, about −32% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NMRH34?
Our model-based fair value for Nomura Holdings Inc. is R$35.66 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$52.40.
What is the quality score of NMRH34?
Nomura Holdings Inc. has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nomura Holdings Inc. (NMRH34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$35.66 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$26.74, optimistic scenario R$44.57. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nomura Holdings Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$35.66, about −32% upside versus a price of R$52.40 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$26.74, optimistic scenario R$44.57. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nomura Holdings Inc. (NMRH34)?
Nomura Holdings Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥2.2T (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Nomura Holdings Inc. pay a dividend?
Nomura Holdings Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.53% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Nomura Holdings Inc. (NMRH34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nomura Holdings Inc. it is R$35.66 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of R$52.40. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nomura Holdings Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, NMRH34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$52.40, fair value R$35.66, a gap of about −32% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NMRH34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$52.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$35.66). For Nomura Holdings Inc. the two are R$16.74 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nomura Holdings Inc. worth?
The market values Nomura Holdings Inc. at about R$152B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is R$52.40; our models calculate a fair value of R$35.66 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NMRH34?
Our models span a range for Nomura Holdings Inc.: cautious scenario R$26.74, base R$35.66, optimistic R$44.57 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price R$52.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NMRH34?
Nomura Holdings Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.8 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$35.66 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 1.2, P/S 2.1.
What is the PEG ratio of NMRH34?
The PEG ratio of Nomura Holdings Inc. is 0.78 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nomura Holdings Inc. (NMRH34)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nomura Holdings Inc. (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 10.1%, debt of 4.30 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NMRH34 from its 52-week high?
Nomura Holdings Inc. trades at R$52.40, about 1% below its 52-week high of R$52.95 and 46% above the low of R$35.89 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$35.66 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nomura Holdings Inc.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nomura Holdings Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price R$52.40, calculated fair value R$35.66 (−32%), Quality Score 36/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NMRH34 calculated?
We run Nomura Holdings Inc. through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$35.66, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Nomura Holdings Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nomura Holdings Inc. (NMRH34)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was R$52.40. Our model-based fair value is R$35.66, about −32% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nomura Holdings Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$44.57). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Nomura Holdings Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Nomura Holdings Inc. (NMRH34)?
The market capitalisation of Nomura Holdings Inc. is R$152B (≈ $29.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nomura Holdings Inc. (NMRH34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nomura Holdings Inc. is 2.70 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nomura Holdings Inc. (NMRH34)?
Earnings per share at Nomura Holdings Inc. are R$3.81 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nomura Holdings Inc. (NMRH34)?
The dividend yield of Nomura Holdings Inc. is 2.5% (payout 34.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nomura Holdings Inc. (NMRH34)?
The net margin of Nomura Holdings Inc. is 19.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nomura Holdings Inc. (NMRH34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nomura Holdings Inc. is 10.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nomura Holdings Inc. (NMRH34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nomura Holdings Inc. is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nomura Holdings Inc. (NMRH34)?
The operating margin of Nomura Holdings Inc. is 19.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nomura Holdings Inc. (NMRH34)?
Revenue at Nomura Holdings Inc. is growing +27.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nomura Holdings Inc. (NMRH34)?
Earnings per share at Nomura Holdings Inc. are growing +4.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Nomura Holdings Inc. (NMRH34) generate?
The free cash flow of Nomura Holdings Inc. is −¥1.2T (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Nomura Holdings Inc. (NMRH34) carry?
The net debt of Nomura Holdings Inc. is ¥12.0T (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Nomura Holdings Inc. in the live analysis
One click puts Nomura Holdings Inc. on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
