NOBA Bank (NOBA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of NOBA Bank SEK 60.76, price SEK 87.10, upside -30.2%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
12‑month range kr 74.40 – kr 120.05 · fair‑value band kr 46.22 – kr 173.12 · the kr 87.10 price screens above the kr 60.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 24, 2026.
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NOBA Bank Group AB (publ) provides financial and banking products and services in Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark, Germany, Spain, Ireland, and the Netherlands. It operates through three brands namely, Nordax Bank, Bank Norwegian and Svensk Hypotekspension.
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NOBA Bank Group AB (publ) provides financial and banking products and services in Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark, Germany, Spain, Ireland, and the Netherlands. It operates through three brands namely, Nordax Bank, Bank Norwegian and Svensk Hypotekspension. The company's services include private loans, credit cards, specialist mortgages, equity release mortgages, cross-border lending, and deposits for retail customers. The company was formerly known as Nordax Bank AB (publ) and changed its name to NOBA Bank Group AB (publ) in June 2023. NOBA Bank Group AB (publ) was incorporated in 2003 and is based in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
NOBA Bank (NOBA) currently trades at kr 87.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 60.76, implying the stock looks roughly 43.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of kr 65.31 per share, and 1 of the 4 models we run sit above the kr 87.10 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 31.26, and 3 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 46.22 (bear) to kr 173.12 (bull), the price of kr 87.10 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
NOBA Bank reported revenue of 15.2B SEK in FY2025 versus 3.1B SEK in FY2021, a compound +49.3%/yr. Reported net income was 3.4B SEK in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 43.6B SEK (≈ $4.4B) · P/E ratio 12.1 · P/S ratio 2.73 · EPS (TTM) kr 7.17 · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 22.5% · Return on equity 14.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −30%, NOBA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 46.22Fair Value kr 60.76Bull kr 173.12
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 4.07 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+46.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+65.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+63.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.8%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.32% → 30%
2025 sits 220% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 3 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−15.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −17.1% a year for the price and +1.6% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Diversified · 47 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−33% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)15% · Top 25%
Return on assets2% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)49% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)66% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth19% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.8% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)12.1× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.95× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)5.84× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF0.6× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA9.6× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)93· sector 25
PAST (return on equity)60· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 48
DIVIDEND (yield)37· sector 73
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "NOBA Bank Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NOBA
Frequently asked questions
Is NOBA Bank (NOBA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 60.76 versus a price of kr 87.10, about −30% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NOBA?
Our model-based fair value for NOBA Bank is kr 60.76 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 87.10.
What is the quality score of NOBA?
NOBA Bank has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NOBA Bank (NOBA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 60.76 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 46.22, optimistic scenario kr 173.12. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NOBA Bank stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 60.76, about −30% upside versus a price of kr 87.10 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 46.22, optimistic scenario kr 173.12. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NOBA Bank (NOBA)?
NOBA Bank reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 7.8B SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does NOBA Bank pay a dividend?
NOBA Bank currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.84% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into NOBA Bank (NOBA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, NOBA Bank would have to grow free cash flow by -15.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +46.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NOBA use?
Our models discount NOBA Bank at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For NOBA Bank that is -15.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has NOBA Bank (NOBA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at NOBA Bank grew +46.6 % a year. The price currently implies -15.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of NOBA Bank (NOBA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into NOBA Bank (-15.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of NOBA Bank (NOBA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 17.99 %: that much free cash flow NOBA Bank produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of NOBA Bank (NOBA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NOBA Bank it is kr 60.76 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 87.10. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NOBA Bank stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, NOBA trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 87.10, fair value kr 60.76, a gap of about −30% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NOBA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 87.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 60.76). For NOBA Bank the two are kr 26.34 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NOBA Bank worth?
The market values NOBA Bank at about 43.6B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 87.10; our models calculate a fair value of kr 60.76 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NOBA?
Our models span a range for NOBA Bank: cautious scenario kr 46.22, base kr 60.76, optimistic kr 173.12 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 87.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NOBA?
NOBA Bank trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 60.76 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.0, P/S 5.8, EV/EBITDA 9.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of NOBA Bank (NOBA)?
Balance-sheet figures for NOBA Bank (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 14.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NOBA from its 52-week high?
NOBA Bank trades at kr 87.10, about 27% below its 52-week high of kr 120.05 and 17% above the low of kr 74.40 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 60.76 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NOBA Bank?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value JPMorgan Chase & Co, Bank of America Corporation, China Construction Bank Corporation, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NOBA Bank stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 87.10, calculated fair value kr 60.76 (−30%), Quality Score 67/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NOBA calculated?
We run NOBA Bank through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 60.76, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. NOBA Bank itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NOBA Bank (NOBA)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was kr 87.10. Our model-based fair value is kr 60.76, about −30% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NOBA Bank right now?
The model range is unusually wide (kr 46.22 to kr 173.12). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of NOBA Bank
How large is the market capitalisation of NOBA Bank (NOBA)?
The market capitalisation of NOBA Bank is 43.6B SEK (≈ $4.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NOBA Bank (NOBA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NOBA Bank is 2.73 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NOBA Bank (NOBA)?
Earnings per share at NOBA Bank are kr 7.17 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of NOBA Bank (NOBA)?
The dividend yield of NOBA Bank is 1.8% (payout 22.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of NOBA Bank (NOBA)?
The net margin of NOBA Bank is 22.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NOBA Bank (NOBA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NOBA Bank is 14.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NOBA Bank (NOBA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NOBA Bank is 1.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NOBA Bank (NOBA)?
The operating margin of NOBA Bank is 65.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NOBA Bank (NOBA)?
Revenue at NOBA Bank is growing +18.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +24.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NOBA Bank (NOBA)?
Earnings per share at NOBA Bank are growing +22.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does NOBA Bank (NOBA) carry?
The net debt of NOBA Bank is 27.3B SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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