Netcare Limited (NTCP) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · ZA · Market cap 270M ZAC · ISIN ZAE000011953
What is Netcare Limited really worth?
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
A solid business, but trading 818% above our fair value of R13.61.
As of Aug 13, 2026, the fair value of Netcare Limited is R13.61 per share against a price of R124.99, so the fair value sits 89% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from R16.67 to R13.61 (−18.4%) since Jul 14, 2026. Share price +33.0% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R20.74). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide (R7.18 to R20.74). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R54.30 – R124.99 · fair‑value band R7.18 – R20.74 · the R124.99 price screens above the R13.61 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Netcare Limited (NTCP) currently trades at R124.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R13.61, implying the stock looks roughly 818.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of R28.13 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the R124.99 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at R2.03, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Netcare Limited generated revenue of 26.9B ZAR at a net margin of 6.8%. Revenue grew 4.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.6%. Net debt stands at 5.5B ZAR. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R7.18 (bear case) to R20.74 (bull case); at R124.99, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −7% fair-value upside, at −89%, NTCP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (R28.13) versus Growth DCF (R2.03). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 76
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Netcare Limited, an investment holding company, operates private hospitals in South Africa. It operates through Hospital and Emergency Services, and Primary Care segments. The Hospital and Emergency Services segment engages in the hospital and pharmacy operations.
Full company description
Netcare Limited, an investment holding company, operates private hospitals in South Africa. It operates through Hospital and Emergency Services, and Primary Care segments. The Hospital and Emergency Services segment engages in the hospital and pharmacy operations. Its operations covers its private acute hospital network and day clinics; and non-acute services, including emergency medical services, mental health clinics operation, diagnostics support services, and cancer care services, as well as sells healthcare products. The Primary Care segment offers healthcare services, and employee health and wellness services, as well as administrative services to medical and dental practices. It also engages in the financing, property owning, and pharmaceutical services. It operates through a network of acute hospitals, netcare 911 sites, cancer care centres, haematology centres, renal dialysis facilities, dialysis stations, point of care devices, mental health hospitals, primary health care facilities, and occupational health service contracts, as well as insurance products, and prepaid procedures and healthcare vouchers. Netcare Limited was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Sandton, South Africa.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Netcare Limited reported revenue of 26.3B ZAR in FY2025 versus 21.2B ZAR in FY2021, a compound +5.6%/yr. Reported net income was 1.7B ZAR in FY2025, compounding +22.7%/yr from FY2021.
NTCP screens 818% overvalued. Compare with HCA Healthcare, Inc →
Peer Group
Medical Care Facilities · 257 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Medical Care Facilities stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| HCA Healthcare, Inc HCA | $417.82 | $547.67 | +31% |
| Fresenius SE FRE | €45.25 | €32.15 | −29% |
| Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group 4013 | 241.00 SAR | 112.37 SAR | −53% |
| IHH Healthcare Berhad, an investment holding company, Q0F | 2.67 SGD | 1.44 SGD | −46% |
| Tenet Healthcare Corporation THC | $266.80 | $330.25 | +24% |
| DaVita Inc DVA | $180.68 | $186.49 | +3% |
| Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Limited APOLLOHOSP | ₹8,818 | ₹2,955 | −66% |
| Fresenius Medical Care AG FME | €39.92 | €71.28 | +79% |
| Aier Eye Hospital Group 300015 | ¥8.25 | ¥7.67 | −7% |
| Max Healthcare Institute Limited MAXHEALTH | ₹1,005 | ₹284.87 | −72% |
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