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Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited (NURPF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited $15.33, price $14.28, upside +7.4%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited
NURPF · USNeutralQuality growthThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.
·Fair value $15.33 · Fairly valued (+7.4%)
✓Quality 61/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +146.0 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 47.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 68/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0080 – $17.17 · fair‑value band $9.18 – $19.94 · the $14.28 price screens below the $15.33 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited, a biopharmaceutical company, develops drugs for the treatment of neurological disorders. It develops and commercializes DAYBUE (trofinetide) for the treatment of Rett syndrome in adults and pediatric patients 2 years of age and older, as well as in Phase 2 clinical trial to treat Fragile X syndrome.
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Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited, a biopharmaceutical company, develops drugs for the treatment of neurological disorders. It develops and commercializes DAYBUE (trofinetide) for the treatment of Rett syndrome in adults and pediatric patients 2 years of age and older, as well as in Phase 2 clinical trial to treat Fragile X syndrome. The company also develops NNZ-2591, which has completed Phase 2 clinical trial for the treatment of Phelan-McDermid; and in Phase 2 clinical trial for the treatment of Angelman and Pitt Hopkins. In addition, it develops NNZ-2591, which is in preclinical trial stage for the treatment of Prader-Willi syndrome, Hypoxic Ischemic Encephalopathy, and SYNGAP1. The company was incorporated in 2001 and is based in Hawthorn East, Australia.
Stock analysis
Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited (NURPF) currently trades at $14.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.33, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 6.9%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $15.18 per share, and 1 of the 23 models we run sit above the $14.28 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $1.72, and 22 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $9.18 (bear) to $19.94 (bull), the price of $14.28 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited reported revenue of A$64.6M in FY2025 versus A$3.2M in FY2021, a compound +112.0%/yr. Reported net income was A$30.4M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.9B · P/E ratio 89.2 · P/S ratio 42.0 · EPS (TTM) $0.1600 · Net margin 47.1% · Return on equity 8.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.7% · Operating margin 30.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 74% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 7%, NURPF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $9.18
Fair Value $15.33
Bull $19.94
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1210 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$9.39
$13.69
$26.56
75
EPV
$0.6200
$0.7000
$0.7700
74
Growth DCF
$8.79
$15.18
$25.22
74
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$9.39
$13.69
$26.56
75
Owner Earnings
$2.15
$4.43
$8.66
70
5Y Revenue Exit
$3.58
$4.67
$6.82
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
$3.91
$5.33
$8.05
73
5Y P/E Exit
$4.93
$9.00
$14.20
67
10Y Revenue Exit
$5.53
$8.67
$9.63
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$5.78
$9.31
$14.37
65
10Y P/E Exit
$6.46
$11.32
$18.55
60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$1.14
$7.92
$11.11
61
Lynch FV
$4.09
$5.84
$7.60
59
PEG = 1.0
$4.09
$5.84
$7.60
55
EPV
$0.6200
$0.7000
$0.7700
74
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$2.76
$3.67
$4.59
63
P/S Multiple
$0.9300
$1.24
$1.55
58
P/B Multiple
$2.13
$2.84
$3.55
55
EV/EBIT
$1.56
$2.08
$2.59
66
EV/EBITDA
$1.29
$1.72
$2.14
67
EV/Revenue
$0.7700
$1.09
$1.41
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.9300
$1.24
$1.86
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$8.79
$15.18
$25.22
74
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$1.49
$1.59
$1.79
68
ROIC Compounder
$0.6200
$0.7000
$0.7700
70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$5.43
$7.76
$10.08
65
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
61/100
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65
Profitability
48
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
20
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
81
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
8
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
94
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
81
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
79
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−70.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+64.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+146.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +44.1% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.0%
’13
’14
’15
’16
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−27.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−27.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−2,311% → 34%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+64.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in AUD, Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.6% a year for the price and +59.8% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+14.8%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+98.6%
Projected 2028 (sales)+86.5%
Projected 2029 (sales)+74.4%
Projected 2030 (sales)+62.4%
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 629 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Health Care sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $527.67 | $580.44 | +10% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $752.25 | $1,275 | +69% |
| argenx SE ARGX | $959.49 | $918.60 | −4% |
| CSL Limited CSL | A$175.35 | A$192.89 | +10% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,354,000 KRW | 1,489,400 KRW | +10% |
| BeOne Medicines AG ONC | $360.85 | $280.94 | −22% |
| Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY | $255.96 | $217.88 | −15% |
| Royalty Pharma plc RPRX | $58.21 | $19.01 | −67% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 177,400 KRW | 74,519 KRW | −58% |
| WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 | HK$53.00 | HK$58.30 | +10% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited (NURPF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15.33 versus a price of $14.28, about +7% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of NURPF?
Our model-based fair value for Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited is $15.33 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.28.
What is the quality score of NURPF?
Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited (NURPF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $15.33 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.18, optimistic scenario $19.94. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $15.33, about +7% upside versus a price of $14.28 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $9.18, optimistic scenario $19.94. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited (NURPF)?
Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$64.6M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited (NURPF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +16.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +146.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NURPF use?
Our models discount Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited at 12.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.59, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited that is +16.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited (NURPF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited grew +146.0 % a year. The price currently implies +16.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited (NURPF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited (+16.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited (NURPF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.67 %: that much free cash flow Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited (NURPF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited it is $15.33 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $14.28. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, NURPF trades below its calculated fair value: price $14.28, fair value $15.33, a gap of about +7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NURPF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.28); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($15.33). For Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited the two are $1.06 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited worth?
The market values Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited at about $1.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $14.28; our models calculate a fair value of $15.33 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NURPF?
Our models span a range for Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited: cautious scenario $9.18, base $15.33, optimistic $19.94 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $14.28). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NURPF?
Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 89.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $15.33 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.3, P/S 17.0, EV/EBITDA 49.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited (NURPF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NURPF from its 52-week high?
Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited trades at $14.28, about 16% below its 52-week high of $17.00 and 74% above the low of $8.22 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $15.33 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, CSL Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $14.28, calculated fair value $15.33 (+7%), Quality Score 61/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NURPF calculated?
We run Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $15.33, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited currently trades 7 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited (NURPF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $14.28. Our model-based fair value is $15.33, about +7% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($9.18 to $19.94) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited (NURPF)?
The market capitalisation of Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited is $1.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited (NURPF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited is 42.0 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited (NURPF)?
Earnings per share at Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited are $0.1600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 89.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited (NURPF)?
The net margin of Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited is 47.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited (NURPF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited is 8.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited (NURPF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited is 12.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited (NURPF)?
The operating margin of Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited is 30.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited (NURPF)?
Revenue at Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited is growing −80.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +64.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited (NURPF)?
Earnings per share at Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited are growing −88.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited (NURPF) hold?
Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited holds more cash than debt, A$4.2M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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