Nova Minerals Corp (NVA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Nova Minerals Corp stock A$0.22, price A$0.51, that is 56.9% below the price, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Nova Minerals Corp engages in the exploration of mineral properties in Australia and the United States. The company explores for gold, antimony, and critical minerals.
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It owns 85% interest in the flagship Estelle Gold project comprising 803 mining claims covering an area of 514 square kilometers located in the State of Alaska. Nova Minerals Corp was incorporated in 1987 and is based in Caulfield, Australia.
Stock analysis
Nova Minerals Corp (NVA) currently trades at A$0.5100, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.2200, 57% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 84/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: A$0.1600 (bear) to A$0.3200 (bull), the price of A$0.5100 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Nova Minerals Corp reported revenue of −$7.1M in FY2025 versus $2.2K in FY2021. Reported net income was −$11.0M in FY2025.
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 65% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 7% fair-value upside, at −57%, NVA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$0.1600Fair Value A$0.2200BullA$0.3200
Price A$0.5100 · Downside -56.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.33/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+470.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+117.4%
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−56,535.0% (2019) → −1,898.2% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Is Nova Minerals Corp (NVA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.2200 versus a price of A$0.5100, about 57% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NVA?
Our model-based fair value for Nova Minerals Corp is A$0.2200 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.5100.
What is the quality score of NVA?
Nova Minerals Corp has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nova Minerals Corp (NVA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.2200 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.1600, optimistic scenario A$0.3200. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nova Minerals Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.2200, about 57% lower versus a price of A$0.5100 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.1600, optimistic scenario A$0.3200. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Nova Minerals Corp (NVA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nova Minerals Corp it is A$0.2200 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of A$0.5100. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nova Minerals Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, NVA trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.5100, fair value A$0.2200, a gap of about −57% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NVA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.5100); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.2200). For Nova Minerals Corp the two are A$0.2900 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nova Minerals Corp worth?
The market values Nova Minerals Corp at about A$234M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is A$0.5100; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.2200 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NVA?
Our models span a range for Nova Minerals Corp: cautious scenario A$0.1600, base A$0.2200, optimistic A$0.3200 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price A$0.5100). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is NVA from its 52-week high?
Nova Minerals Corp trades at A$0.5100, about 65% below its 52-week high of A$1.45 and 42% above the low of A$0.3600 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.2200 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nova Minerals Corp?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BHP Group, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Fortescue Ltd, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nova Minerals Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price A$0.5100, calculated fair value A$0.2200 (−57%), Quality Score 50/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NVA calculated?
We run Nova Minerals Corp through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.2200, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7% above its aggregate fair value. Nova Minerals Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nova Minerals Corp (NVA)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was A$0.5100. Our model-based fair value is A$0.2200, about 57% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nova Minerals Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.3200). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (A$0.1600 to A$0.3200) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Nova Minerals Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Nova Minerals Corp (NVA)?
The market capitalisation of Nova Minerals Corp is A$234M (≈ $161M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Nova Minerals Corp (NVA)?
Earnings per share at Nova Minerals Corp are A$−0.0600. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Nova Minerals Corp (NVA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nova Minerals Corp is −15.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nova Minerals Corp (NVA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nova Minerals Corp is −6.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nova Minerals Corp (NVA)?
The operating margin of Nova Minerals Corp is −4,303,970% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much revenue does Nova Minerals Corp (NVA) generate?
Nova Minerals Corp generates revenue of −A$1.7M (last twelve months). Revenue of the last twelve months (TTM), the most recent full year, not the calendar year.
How fast is revenue growing at Nova Minerals Corp (NVA)?
Revenue at Nova Minerals Corp is growing +59.5% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Nova Minerals Corp (NVA) generate?
The free cash flow of Nova Minerals Corp is −A$13.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Nova Minerals Corp (NVA) hold?
Nova Minerals Corp holds more cash than debt, A$9.1M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 7, 2026