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Novavax Inc (NVAX) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Novavax Inc $6.37, price $10.55, upside -39.7%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Healthcare · US · ISIN US6700024010

NI Novavax Inc logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Novavax Inc

NVAX · US

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value $6.37 · Strongly overvalued (−40%)
!Quality 53/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +18.8 %/yr)
!Loss over the last twelve months · -59.9% net margin (TTM) · fiscal year 2025 39.2%
!Negative equity (buybacks among others) · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/8)
!Narrow moat 6/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$270.58 $3.76 Fair Value $6.37 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.76 – $270.58 · fair‑value band $4.77 – $7.96 · the $10.55 price screens above the $6.37 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Novavax, Inc., a biotechnology company, engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of vaccines to prevent serious infectious diseases in the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company commercializes Nuvaxovid, a COVID-19 vaccine; and R21 Matrix-M adjuvant malaria vaccine.

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Novavax, Inc., a biotechnology company, engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of vaccines to prevent serious infectious diseases in the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company commercializes Nuvaxovid, a COVID-19 vaccine; and R21 Matrix-M adjuvant malaria vaccine. It has license and collaboration agreements with Sanofi, Pfizer Inc., Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited, and Serum Life Sciences Limited for the to develop, manufacture, and commercialize the COVID-19 vaccine. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, Maryland.

Stock analysis

Novavax Inc (NVAX) currently trades at $10.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.37, implying the stock looks roughly 65.8% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 7 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $4.77 (bear) to $7.96 (bull), the price of $10.55 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Novavax Inc reported revenue of $1.1B in FY2025 versus $1.1B in FY2021, a compound −0.5%/yr. Reported net income was $440M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $1.8B · P/S ratio 3.17 · EPS (TTM) $−1.53 · Net margin 39.2% · Return on equity −898% · Return on assets (EBIT) −18.7% · Operating margin −89.6% · Revenue (TTM) $414M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 70% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at −40%, NVAX screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $4.77 Fair Value $6.37 Bull $7.96
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings $37.07 $76.86 $150.69 69
Growth-Adj P/E $86.81 $124.02 $161.22 65
P/E Multiple $44.04 $58.73 $73.41 63
All 7 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $37.07 $76.86 $150.69 69
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $18.15 $126.59 $177.65 61
Lynch FV $65.40 $93.43 $121.46 59
PEG = 1.0 $65.40 $93.43 $121.46 55
Multiples
P/E Multiple $44.04 $58.73 $73.41 63
P/S Multiple $17.88 $23.84 $29.80 58
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $86.81 $124.02 $161.22 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42

Profitability 93
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 100
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 56
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 54
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 71
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+64.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +41.0% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+37.9%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−646.1% (2019) → −36.5% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed

NVAX screens 66% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 651 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 53 · Above median
Fair Value upside −40% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets −7% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) −60% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −90% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −76% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 4.41× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.32× · Pricier than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $514.99 $566.49 +10%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $803.90 $1,252 +56%
argenx SE ARGX $963.79 $918.60 −5%
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,366,000 KRW 1,502,600 KRW +10%
CSL Limited CSL A$179.24 A$197.16 +10%
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $251.65 $218.36 −13%
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $58.52 $24.22 −59%
BeOne Medicines AG 6160 HK$218.20 HK$169.72 −22%
Celltrion, Inc 068270 177,400 KRW 74,519 KRW −58%
BioNTech SE BNTX $100.87 $63.62 −37%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Novavax Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NVAX

Frequently asked questions

Is Novavax Inc (NVAX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.37 versus a price of $10.55, about −40% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NVAX?
Our model-based fair value for Novavax Inc is $6.37 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $10.55.
What is the quality score of NVAX?
Novavax Inc has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Novavax Inc (NVAX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.37 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.77, optimistic scenario $7.96. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Novavax Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.37, about −40% upside versus a price of $10.55 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.77, optimistic scenario $7.96. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Novavax Inc (NVAX)?
Novavax Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $414M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Novavax Inc (NVAX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Novavax Inc it is $6.37 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $10.55. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Novavax Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, NVAX trades above its calculated fair value: price $10.55, fair value $6.37, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NVAX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($10.55); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.37). For Novavax Inc the two are $4.19 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Novavax Inc worth?
The market values Novavax Inc at about $1.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $10.55; our models calculate a fair value of $6.37 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NVAX?
Our models span a range for Novavax Inc: cautious scenario $4.77, base $6.37, optimistic $7.96 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $10.55). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of NVAX?
The PEG ratio of Novavax Inc is 1.32 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Novavax Inc (NVAX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Novavax Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NVAX from its 52-week high?
Novavax Inc trades at $10.55, about 6% below its 52-week high of $11.19 and 70% above the low of $6.22 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.37 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Novavax Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, Samsung Biologics Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Novavax Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $10.55, calculated fair value $6.37 (−40%), Quality Score 53/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NVAX calculated?
We run Novavax Inc through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $6.37, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Novavax Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Novavax Inc (NVAX)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $10.55. Our model-based fair value is $6.37, about −40% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Novavax Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($7.96). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Novavax Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Novavax Inc (NVAX)?
The market capitalisation of Novavax Inc is $1.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Novavax Inc (NVAX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Novavax Inc is 3.17 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Novavax Inc (NVAX)?
Earnings per share at Novavax Inc are $−1.53. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Novavax Inc (NVAX)?
The net margin of Novavax Inc is 39.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Novavax Inc (NVAX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Novavax Inc is −898% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Novavax Inc (NVAX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Novavax Inc is −18.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Novavax Inc (NVAX)?
The operating margin of Novavax Inc is −89.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Novavax Inc (NVAX)?
Revenue at Novavax Inc is growing −76.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −11.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Novavax Inc (NVAX)?
Earnings per share at Novavax Inc are growing −38.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Novavax Inc (NVAX) generate?
The free cash flow of Novavax Inc is −$250M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Novavax Inc (NVAX) carry?
The net debt of Novavax Inc is $8.2M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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