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Novavax Inc (NVAX) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Novavax Inc stock $9.64, price $10.20, that is 5.5% below the price, quality 62 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Healthcare US

NI Novavax Inc logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

Novavax Inc

NVAX · US
Fairly valued, in an uptrend

The stock costs about what our calculation considers fair.

Quality 62/100
Fair value $9.64 · Fairly valued
Loss over the last twelve months · -18.6% net margin (TTM) · fiscal year 2025 39.2%
Negative equity (buybacks among others)
Mixed vs. peers (4/8)
Neutral coverage
Profit last quarter 38% below a year ago.
Weak Growth (revenue 3y −11.1 %/yr in USD)
Negative free cash flow
Narrow moat 27/100 · thin data
Thin data
EstimateExcl. one-off gain
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$270.58 $3.76 Fair Value $9.64 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.76 – $270.58 · fair‑value band $7.23 – $12.05 · the $10.20 price screens above the $9.64 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

Novavax, Inc., a biotechnology company, engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of vaccines to prevent serious infectious diseases in the United States, Europe, and internationally.

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The company commercializes Nuvaxovid, a COVID-19 vaccine; and R21 Matrix-M adjuvant malaria vaccine.

It has license and collaboration agreements with Sanofi, Pfizer Inc., Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited, and Serum Life Sciences Limited for the to develop, manufacture, and commercialize the COVID-19 vaccine. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, Maryland.

Stock analysis

Novavax Inc (NVAX) currently trades at $10.20, while our estimate is $9.64, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 5.8%).

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: $7.23 (bear) to $12.05 (bull), the price of $10.20 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Novavax Inc reported revenue of $1.1B in FY2025 versus $1.1B in FY2021, a compound −0.5%/yr. Reported net income was $440M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $1.7B Small · P/S ratio 4.32 · EPS (TTM) $−0.5200 · Net margin −18.6% · Return on equity −898% · Return on assets (EBIT) −18.7% (5-year average) · Operating margin −41.3% · Revenue (TTM) $412M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 64% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −7% fair-value upside, at −5%, NVAX screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value

Bear $7.23 Fair Value $9.64 Bull $12.05
Price $10.20 · Downside -5.5%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 62/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 93
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 100
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 56
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 0
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 75
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 68
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 50
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.

Plus 6 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 10, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+64.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +41.0% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+37.9%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−646.1% (2019) → −36.5% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed

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Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.

Compare Novavax Inc with another stock

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 849 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/8 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −5.5% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets 37.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months) −18.6% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) −41.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −3.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (12 months) 4.08× · Cheaper than median
PEG 1.32× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)26 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 20

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $916.06 $1,275 +39% vs NVAX
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,468,000 KRW 1,661,000 KRW +13% vs NVAX
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $547.89 $601.80 +10% vs NVAX
Genmab A/S GMAB kr 3,581 kr 3,880 +8% vs NVAX
argenx SE ARGX $971.55 $908.40 −7% vs NVAX
CSL Limited CSL A$201.68 A$181.40 −10% vs NVAX
Moderna, Inc MRNA $250.83 $158.70 −37% vs NVAX
BeOne Medicines AG 6160 HK$252.20 HK$152.80 −39% vs NVAX
Celltrion, Inc 068270 203,000 KRW 74,945 KRW −63% vs NVAX
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $69.45 $19.01 −73% vs NVAX

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Novavax Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Novavax Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NVAX

Frequently asked questions

Is Novavax Inc (NVAX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is $9.64 versus a price of $10.20, about 5% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of NVAX?
Our estimate for Novavax Inc is $9.64 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $10.20.
What is the quality score of NVAX?
Novavax Inc has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Novavax Inc (NVAX)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of $9.64 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario $7.23, optimistic scenario $12.05. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Novavax Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at $9.64, about 5% lower versus a price of $10.20 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $7.23, optimistic scenario $12.05. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Novavax Inc (NVAX)?
Novavax Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $412M (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Novavax Inc (NVAX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Novavax Inc it is $9.64 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of $10.20.
Is Novavax Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, NVAX trades above its calculated fair value: price $10.20, fair value $9.64, a gap of about −5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NVAX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($10.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($9.64). For Novavax Inc the two are $0.5600 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Novavax Inc worth?
The market values Novavax Inc at about $1.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is $10.20; our models calculate a fair value of $9.64 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NVAX?
Our models span a range for Novavax Inc: cautious scenario $7.23, base $9.64, optimistic $12.05 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price $10.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of NVAX?
The PEG ratio of Novavax Inc is 1.32 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 10, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Novavax Inc (NVAX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Novavax Inc (as of Nov 10, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NVAX from its 52-week high?
Novavax Inc trades at $10.20, about 20% below its 52-week high of $12.82 and 64% above the low of $6.22 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $9.64 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Novavax Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Moderna, Inc, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, CSL Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Novavax Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price $10.20, calculated fair value $9.64 (−5%), Quality Score 62/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Novavax Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Novavax Inc (NVAX)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $10.20. Our estimate is $9.64, about 5% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Novavax Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Novavax Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Novavax Inc (NVAX)?
The market capitalisation of Novavax Inc is $1.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Novavax Inc (NVAX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Novavax Inc is 4.32 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Novavax Inc (NVAX)?
Earnings per share at Novavax Inc are $−0.5200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Novavax Inc (NVAX)?
The net margin of Novavax Inc is −18.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Novavax Inc (NVAX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Novavax Inc is −898% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Novavax Inc (NVAX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Novavax Inc is −18.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Novavax Inc (NVAX)?
The operating margin of Novavax Inc is −41.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Novavax Inc (NVAX)?
Revenue at Novavax Inc is growing −3.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −11.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Novavax Inc (NVAX)?
Earnings per share at Novavax Inc are growing −38.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Novavax Inc (NVAX) generate?
The free cash flow of Novavax Inc is −$250M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Novavax Inc (NVAX) carry?
The net debt of Novavax Inc is $8.2M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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