Novartis AG researches (NVS) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · CA · Market cap C$387B (≈ $280B)
What is Novartis AG researches really worth?
A strong business, but trading 43% above our fair value of C$21.43.
As of Aug 19, 2026, the fair value of Novartis AG researches is C$21.43 per share against a price of C$30.64, so the fair value sits 30% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.
Strengths
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 19, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 17 days ago
Share price +12.8% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 83/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$27.21). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (16 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
16‑month range C$19.72 – C$30.64 · fair‑value band C$15.22 – C$27.21 · the C$30.64 price screens above the C$21.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
Analysis
Novartis AG researches (NVS) currently trades at C$30.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$21.43, implying the stock looks roughly 43.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 83/100 (high quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of C$25.11 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the C$30.64 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$2.38, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Novartis AG researches generated revenue of C$55.2B at a net margin of 24.7%. Revenue grew 15.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 32.5%. Net debt stands at C$22.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$15.22 (bear case) to C$27.21 (bull case); at C$30.64, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −30%, NVS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (C$25.11) versus Asset-Based (C$2.38). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 78 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 76
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Novartis AG researches, develops, manufactures, distributes, markets, and sells pharmaceutical medicines in Switzerland and internationally.
Full company description
Novartis AG researches, develops, manufactures, distributes, markets, and sells pharmaceutical medicines in Switzerland and internationally. The company offers Entresto, an angiotensin receptorneprilysin inhibitor to treat symptomatic chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF); Cosentyx to treat plaque psoriasis, pso riatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, and nonradiographic axial spondy loarthritis; Kisqali, a selective oral cyclin dependent inhibitor of kinases 4 and 6 (CDK4/6); Promacta/Revolade to treat immune thrombocytopenia (ITP), thrombocytopenia, and patients with severe aplastic anemia (SAA); Tafinlar+Mekinist, an oral combination therapy to treat patients with certain types of cancers; and Jakavi for the treatment of myelofibrosis, polycythemia vera, and acute or chronic graftversushost disease (GvHD). It also provides Tasigna to treat philadelphia chromosomepositive chronic myeloid leukemia in the chronic and/or accelerated phase; Xolair for the treatment of allergic asthma and nasal polyps or severe chronic rhinosi nusitis with nasal polyps; Ilaris to treat fever syndromes, Still's disease, and acute gouty arthritis; Pluvicto to treat prostatespecific membrane anti genpositive metastatic castrationresistant prostate cancer; Sandostatin SC and Sandostatin LAR to treat acromegaly carcinoid tumors and other types of functional gastro intestinal and pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors; Zolgensma for the treatment of genetic root cause of spinal muscular atrophy; Lucentis; Leqvio to reduce LDL cholesterol; Lutathera; Scemblix; and Fabhalta. The company focuses on therapeutic areas, such as cardiovascular, renal and metabolic, immunology, neuroscience, oncology, and hematology. It has a license and collaboration agreement with Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. to develop, manufacture, and commercialize Leqvio (inclisiran), a therapy to reduce LDL cholesterol. Novartis AG was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Novartis AG researches reported revenue of $56.7B in FY2025 versus $43.5B in FY2022, a compound +9.3%/yr. Reported net income was $14.0B in FY2025, compounding +26.2%/yr from FY2022.
NVS screens 43% overvalued. Compare with Eli Lilly and Company →
Peer Group
Drug Manufacturers - General · 75 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - General median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Drug Manufacturers - General stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Lilly and Company LLY | $1,176 | $389.47 | −67% |
| Johnson & Johnson, JNJ | $275.23 | $169.04 | −39% |
| AbbVie Inc ABBV | $256.46 | $67.72 | −74% |
| Roche Holding RO | CHF 374.60 | CHF 306.54 | −18% |
| Merck & Co MRK | €131.98 | €101.38 | −23% |
| Novo Nordisk A/S NOVOB | kr 295.50 | kr 409.46 | +39% |
| Amgen Inc AMGN | $437.23 | $252.02 | −42% |
| Gilead Sciences, Inc GILD | $151.00 | $146.50 | −3% |
| Pfizer Inc PFE | $28.02 | $24.87 | −11% |
| Bristol-Myers Squibb Company BMY | $66.58 | $75.98 | +14% |
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