Novartis AG (NVSN) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · MX · Market cap 4.7T MXN
Fair value as of: Jun 24, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 11 days ago
Fair value updated Jun 24, 2026 — revised from 136.25 MXN to 2,401 MXN (+1,662.5%) since Jun 23, 2026. Share price +3.6% over the past month.
Price vs Fair Value (12 months)
12‑month range 2,092 MXN – 2,867 MXN · fair‑value band 1,603 MXN – 3,260 MXN · the 2,601 MXN price screens above the 2,401 MXN fair value. As of Jun 24, 2026.
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Novartis AG (NVSN) currently trades at 2,601 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2,401 MXN — implying the stock looks roughly 7.7% overvalued today. We read business quality at 76/100 (high quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium — the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Novartis AG generated revenue of 56.6B MXN at a net margin of 23.9%. Revenue declined 0.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 34.9%. Net debt stands at 22.0B MXN. Fundamentals as of Jun 24, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 1,603 MXN (bear case) to 3,260 MXN (bull case); at 2,601 MXN, the current price sits within that range. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -42% fair-value upside — at -8%, NVSN screens cheaper than that median.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jun 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
About the company
Novartis AG researches, develops, manufactures, distributes, markets, and sells pharmaceutical medicines in Switzerland and internationally. The company offers Entresto, an angiotensin receptorneprilysin inhibitor to treat symptomatic chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF); Cosentyx to treat plaque psoriasis, pso riatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, and nonradiographic axial spondy loarthritis; Kisqali, a selective oral cyclin dependent inhibitor of kinases 4 and 6 (CDK4/6); Promacta/Revolade to treat immune thrombocytopenia (ITP), thrombocytopenia, and patients with severe aplastic anemia (SAA); Tafinlar+Mekinist, an oral combination therapy to treat patients with certain types of cancers; and Jakavi for the treatment of myelofibrosis, polycythemia vera, and acute or chronic graftversushost disease (GvHD). It also provides Tasigna to treat philadelphia chromosomepositive chronic myeloid leukemia in the chronic and/or accelerated phase; Xolair for the …
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Novartis AG reported revenue of 56.7B MXN in FY2025 versus 52.9B MXN in FY2021, a compound +1.7%/yr. Reported net income was 14.0B MXN in FY2025, compounding −12.7%/yr from FY2021.
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External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others) — not an editorial selection, not financial advice.
Similar stocks
10 more Drug Manufacturers - General stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jun 24, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Lilly and Company LLY | $1,136 | $630.79 | -44% |
| Johnson & Johnson, JNJ | 4,128 MXN | 2,401 MXN | -42% |
| AbbVie Inc ABBV | $230.01 | $133.86 | -42% |
| Roche Holding ROGN | 7,050 MXN | 5,381 MXN | -24% |
| Merck & Co MRCK34 | R$76.74 | R$50.09 | -35% |
| AstraZeneca PLC A1ZN34 | R$159.89 | R$87.02 | -46% |
| Novo Nordisk A/S, NOVOB | kr 307.75 | kr 542.67 | +76% |
| Amgen Inc AMGN | 6,170 MXN | 253.17 MXN | -96% |
| Gilead Sciences, Inc GIS | €108.32 | €204.69 | +89% |
| Pfizer Inc PFIZ34 | R$32.31 | R$5.22 | -84% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.
Not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.