AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what AstraZeneca PLC is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $98.02 – $208.45 · fair‑value band $72.51 – $188.49 · the $166.08 price screens above the $127.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.
AstraZeneca PLC, a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery, development, manufacture, and commercialization of prescription medicines.
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AstraZeneca PLC, a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery, development, manufacture, and commercialization of prescription medicines. The company offers Imjudo, Datroway, Iressa, Tagrisso, Imfinzi, Lynparza, Calquence, Enhertu, Orpathys, Truqap, Zoladex, Faslodex, Crestor, Andexxa, Onglyza, Symlin, XIGDUO XR, Atacand, Atacand HCT, Atacand Plus, Farxiga/Forxiga, Plendil, Modip, Splendil, Munobal, Flodil, Tenormin, Tenormine, Prenormine, Atenol, Zestril, Brilinta/Brilique, Komboglyze, Qtern, Wainua, Byetta, Lokelma, Seloken ZOK, Toprol-XL, Betaloc ZOK, XIGDUO, Accolate, Accoleit, Vanticon, Bricanyl Respules, Eklira Genuair/Tudorza/Bretaris, Pulmicort Turbuhaler, Symbicort Turbuhaler, Airsupra, Bricanyl Turbuhaler, Fasenra, Rhinocort, Tezspire, Bevespi Aerosphere, Daliresp/Daxas, Oxis Turbuhaler, Saphnelo, Breztri Aerosphere, Duaklir Genuair, Pulmicort Respules, and Symbicort pMDI. It also provides Beyfortus, Kavigale, Evusheld, Fluenz/FluMist, Synagis, Kanuma, Ultomiris, Koselugo, Voydeya, Soliris, Strensiq, Nexium, and other medicines. The company offers its products for ocology, cardiovascular, renal and metabolism, respiratory & immunology, vaccines and immune, and therapies rare diseases. It serves primary and specialty care physicians through distributors and local representative offices in the United Kingdom, the Americas, rest of Europe, Asia, Africa, and Australasia. It has a strategic agreement with Tempus and Pathos to develop the largest multimodal foundation model in oncology; CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Limited to advance the discovery and development of novel oral candidates, with the potential to treat diseases across multiple indications; and Nucs AI Inc. to develop AI-driven Response Prediction for Therapeutic Radioconjugates. The company was formerly known as Zeneca Group PLC and changed its name to AstraZeneca PLC in April 1999. AstraZeneca PLC was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Cambridge, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) currently trades at $166.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $127.32, implying the stock looks roughly 30.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $129.13 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $166.08 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $21.03, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $72.51 (bear) to $188.49 (bull), the price of $166.08 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
AstraZeneca PLC reported revenue of $58.7B in FY2025 versus $37.4B in FY2021, a compound +11.9%/yr. Reported net income was $10.3B in FY2025, compounding +209.3%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $259B · P/E ratio 25.0 · P/S ratio 4.36 · EPS (TTM) $6.65 · Dividend yield 1.9% · Net margin 17.5% · Return on equity 23.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 63 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at −23%, AZN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $72.51Fair Value $127.32Bull $188.49
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.50 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.2%
Revenue growth 35 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+47.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+45.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.45% vs 11%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 23%
2025 sits 72% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - General · 73 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Above median
Fair Value upside−22% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)23% · Above median
Return on assets8% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)17% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)28% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth13% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.51× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - General median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AstraZeneca PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AZN
Frequently asked questions
Is AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $127.32 versus a price of $166.08, about −23% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AZN?
Our model-based fair value for AstraZeneca PLC is $127.32 (as of Sep 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $166.08.
What is the quality score of AZN?
AstraZeneca PLC has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AstraZeneca PLC (AZN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $127.32 (as of Sep 17, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $72.51, optimistic scenario $188.49. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AstraZeneca PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $127.32, about −23% upside versus a price of $166.08 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $72.51, optimistic scenario $188.49. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AstraZeneca PLC (AZN)?
AstraZeneca PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $60.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 17, 2026).
Does AstraZeneca PLC pay a dividend?
AstraZeneca PLC currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.93% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 17, 2026).
What growth is priced into AstraZeneca PLC (AZN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, AstraZeneca PLC would have to grow free cash flow by +12.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.2 % per year. As of Sep 17, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AZN use?
Our models discount AstraZeneca PLC at 7.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.21, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For AstraZeneca PLC that is +12.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at AstraZeneca PLC grew +17.2 % a year. The price currently implies +12.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into AstraZeneca PLC (+12.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of AstraZeneca PLC (AZN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.34 %: that much free cash flow AstraZeneca PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of AstraZeneca PLC (AZN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AstraZeneca PLC it is $127.32 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026), against a price of $166.08. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AstraZeneca PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 17, 2026, AZN trades above its calculated fair value: price $166.08, fair value $127.32, a gap of about −23% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AZN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($166.08); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($127.32). For AstraZeneca PLC the two are $38.76 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AstraZeneca PLC worth?
The market values AstraZeneca PLC at about $259B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 17, 2026). Per share that is $166.08; our models calculate a fair value of $127.32 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AZN?
Our models span a range for AstraZeneca PLC: cautious scenario $72.51, base $127.32, optimistic $188.49 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026, price $166.08). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AZN?
AstraZeneca PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.0 (as of Sep 17, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $127.32 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 5.6, P/S 4.5, EV/EBITDA 14.5.
What is the PEG ratio of AZN?
The PEG ratio of AstraZeneca PLC is 1.36 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 17, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of AstraZeneca PLC (AZN)?
Balance-sheet figures for AstraZeneca PLC (as of Sep 17, 2026): return on equity 23.5%, debt of 0.51 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AZN from its 52-week high?
AstraZeneca PLC trades at $166.08, about 21% below its 52-week high of $210.50 and 23% above the low of $134.85 (as of Sep 17, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $127.32 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AstraZeneca PLC?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Eli Lilly and Company, Johnson & Johnson,, AbbVie Inc, Roche Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AstraZeneca PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 17, 2026: price $166.08, calculated fair value $127.32 (−23%), Quality Score 69/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AZN calculated?
We run AstraZeneca PLC through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $127.32, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. AstraZeneca PLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AstraZeneca PLC (AZN)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $166.08. Our model-based fair value is $127.32, about −23% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AstraZeneca PLC right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($72.51 to $188.49) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) come from?
Earnings per share at AstraZeneca PLC grew +10.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.3 %, EBIT margin +3.3 %, tax rate −1.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of AstraZeneca PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of AstraZeneca PLC (AZN)?
The market capitalisation of AstraZeneca PLC is $259B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AstraZeneca PLC (AZN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AstraZeneca PLC is 4.36 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AstraZeneca PLC (AZN)?
Earnings per share at AstraZeneca PLC are $6.65 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of AstraZeneca PLC (AZN)?
The dividend yield of AstraZeneca PLC is 1.9% (payout 48.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of AstraZeneca PLC (AZN)?
The net margin of AstraZeneca PLC is 17.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AstraZeneca PLC (AZN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AstraZeneca PLC is 23.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AstraZeneca PLC (AZN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AstraZeneca PLC is 6.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AstraZeneca PLC (AZN)?
The operating margin of AstraZeneca PLC is 27.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AstraZeneca PLC (AZN)?
Revenue at AstraZeneca PLC is growing +12.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AstraZeneca PLC (AZN)?
Earnings per share at AstraZeneca PLC are growing +5.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) carry?
The net debt of AstraZeneca PLC is $24.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 17, 2026