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Data-driven stock valuation

AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what AstraZeneca PLC is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Healthcare · US · Market cap $271B · ISIN US0463531089

At a glance

AP AstraZeneca PLC logo AstraZeneca PLC AZN · US
Price$162.70
Fair Value$127.32
Upside−21.8%
Quality69/100

A solid business, but trading 28% above our fair value of $127.32.

As of Aug 30, 2026, the fair value of AstraZeneca PLC is $127.32 per share against a price of $162.70, so the fair value sits 22% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +17.2 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 17.2% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
·1.97% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers (9/15)
✓Wide moat 82/100
!Weak on valuation: 4 out of 100
Evidence: High Range $72.51 to $172.84

Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 8 days ago

Share price +0.7% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range ($72.51 to $172.84) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$208.45 $98.02 Fair Value $127.32 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $98.02 – $208.45 · fair‑value band $72.51 – $172.84 · the $162.70 price screens above the $127.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.

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Analysis

AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) currently trades at $162.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $127.32, implying the stock looks roughly 27.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $129.13 per share, and 1 of the 24 models we run sit above the $162.70 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $21.03, and 23 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, AstraZeneca PLC generated revenue of $60.4B at a net margin of 17.2%. Revenue grew 12.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 23.5%. Net debt stands at $24.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026

Scenario range: $72.51 (bear) to $172.84 (bull), the price of $162.70 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −22%, AZN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.36 per share) are deliberately not added.

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $55.05 $95.79 $161.41 78
Growth DCF $56.40 $92.61 $147.39 77
Owner Earnings $66.02 $113.40 $189.72 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $55.05 $95.79 $161.41 78
Owner Earnings $66.02 $113.40 $189.72 74
5Y Revenue Exit $60.91 $108.25 $169.04 71
5Y EBITDA Exit $88.67 $160.41 $244.76 74
5Y P/E Exit $75.12 $134.96 $198.10 70
10Y Revenue Exit $55.74 $99.28 $158.44 65
10Y EBITDA Exit $76.43 $136.42 $217.83 67
10Y P/E Exit $67.58 $118.30 $181.23 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $44.96 $142.76 $190.24 64
Lynch FV $31.43 $44.90 $58.37 61
PEG = 1.0 $31.43 $44.90 $58.37 57
EPV $62.38 $75.55 $87.25 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $109.11 $145.47 $181.84 63
P/S Multiple $84.31 $112.41 $140.51 58
P/B Multiple $84.31 $112.41 $140.51 55
EV/EBIT $100.73 $138.39 $176.05 66
EV/EBITDA $119.61 $163.56 $207.51 67
EV/Revenue $67.28 $101.37 $135.46 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $15.69 $21.03 $31.38 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $56.40 $92.61 $147.39 77
Rev-Margin DCF $60.91 $107.93 $162.14 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income $45.00 $59.77 $268.71 64
ROIC Compounder $68.12 $91.69 $120.52 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $90.39 $129.13 $167.87 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($129.13) versus Asset-Based ($21.03). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 24.5
P/S ratio 4.27 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $6.65 price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.5
Dividend yield 2.0% payout 48.1%
Net margin 17.5% FY2025
Return on equity 23.5% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 6.9% avg 5y
Operating margin 27.9% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $60.4B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +12.5% 3y avg +9.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +5.3%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $8.7B FY2025
Net debt $24.0B FY2025 · ≈ 2.8 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 69/100

Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47

Profitability 63
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 65
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 63
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 60
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 60
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 85
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 28
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 35
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

AstraZeneca PLC, a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery, development, manufacture, and commercialization of prescription medicines.

Full company description

AstraZeneca PLC, a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery, development, manufacture, and commercialization of prescription medicines. The company offers Imjudo, Datroway, Iressa, Tagrisso, Imfinzi, Lynparza, Calquence, Enhertu, Orpathys, Truqap, Zoladex, Faslodex, Crestor, Andexxa, Onglyza, Symlin, XIGDUO XR, Atacand, Atacand HCT, Atacand Plus, Farxiga/Forxiga, Plendil, Modip, Splendil, Munobal, Flodil, Tenormin, Tenormine, Prenormine, Atenol, Zestril, Brilinta/Brilique, Komboglyze, Qtern, Wainua, Byetta, Lokelma, Seloken ZOK, Toprol-XL, Betaloc ZOK, XIGDUO, Accolate, Accoleit, Vanticon, Bricanyl Respules, Eklira Genuair/Tudorza/Bretaris, Pulmicort Turbuhaler, Symbicort Turbuhaler, Airsupra, Bricanyl Turbuhaler, Fasenra, Rhinocort, Tezspire, Bevespi Aerosphere, Daliresp/Daxas, Oxis Turbuhaler, Saphnelo, Breztri Aerosphere, Duaklir Genuair, Pulmicort Respules, and Symbicort pMDI. It also provides Beyfortus, Kavigale, Evusheld, Fluenz/FluMist, Synagis, Kanuma, Ultomiris, Koselugo, Voydeya, Soliris, Strensiq, Nexium, and other medicines. The company offers its products for ocology, cardiovascular, renal and metabolism, respiratory & immunology, vaccines and immune, and therapies rare diseases. It serves primary and specialty care physicians through distributors and local representative offices in the United Kingdom, the Americas, rest of Europe, Asia, Africa, and Australasia. It has a strategic agreement with Tempus and Pathos to develop the largest multimodal foundation model in oncology; CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Limited to advance the discovery and development of novel oral candidates, with the potential to treat diseases across multiple indications; and Nucs AI Inc. to develop AI-driven Response Prediction for Therapeutic Radioconjugates. The company was formerly known as Zeneca Group PLC and changed its name to AstraZeneca PLC in April 1999. AstraZeneca PLC was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Cambridge, the United Kingdom.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

AstraZeneca PLC reported revenue of $58.7B in FY2025 versus $37.4B in FY2021, a compound +11.9%/yr. Reported net income was $10.3B in FY2025, compounding +209.3%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.

Growth Quality 100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$58.7B
Latest YoY
+8.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+17.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (35Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.1%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
≈ +46.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+44.9%
Dividend yield2.0%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 44.9% vs 10Y 11.4%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19.4% (2020) → 23.4% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop97% (2021) · in USD
⚠ Final year 2025 sits 72% above trend (one-off), rate approximate
Revenue +11.9%/yr
FY21 $37.4B
FY22 $44.4B
FY23 $45.8B
FY24 $54.1B
FY25 $58.7B
Net income +209.3%/yr
FY21 $112M
FY22 $3.3B
FY23 $6.0B
FY24 $7.0B
FY25 $10.3B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +10.7 % p.a.
Revenue per share +6.3 %

of which total revenue +8.8 % · buybacks/dilution −2.3 %

EBIT margin +3.3 %
Tax rate −1.5 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +2.3 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

AZN screens 28% overvalued. Compare with Eli Lilly and Company →

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AstraZeneca PLC · Fair Value
$127.32 −28%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AstraZeneca PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AZN

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Drug Manufacturers - General · 75 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 69 · Above median
Fair Value upside −22% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 23% · Above median
Return on assets 8% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 17% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 28% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 13% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.51× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - General median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 24.5× · Pricier than median
P/B 5.58× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 4.49× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 31.3× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 14.5× · Cheaper than median
PEG 1.36× · Cheaper than median

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must AstraZeneca PLC deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+9.3 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+17.2 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+4.4 %
FCF yield on price3.41 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models7.6 %

The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE4 · sector 0
FUTURE63 · sector 29
PAST94 · sector 49
HEALTH75 · sector 94
DIVIDEND39 · sector 42

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Drug Manufacturers - General stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Eli Lilly and Company LLY $1,149 $389.47 −66%
Johnson & Johnson, JNJ $275.23 $169.04 −39%
AbbVie Inc ABBV $256.46 $67.72 −74%
Roche Holding RO CHF 374.60 CHF 306.54 −18%
Merck & Co MRK €131.98 €101.38 −23%
Novartis AG NOVN CHF 123.74 CHF 114.90 −7%
Novo Nordisk A/S NOVOB kr 295.50 kr 409.46 +39%
Amgen Inc AMGN $437.23 $252.02 −42%
Gilead Sciences, Inc GILD $151.00 $146.50 −3%
Pfizer Inc PFE $28.45 $24.87 −13%

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Frequently asked questions

Is AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $127.32 versus a price of $162.70, about −22% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AZN?
Our model-based fair value for AstraZeneca PLC is $127.32 (as of Aug 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $162.70.
What is the quality score of AZN?
AstraZeneca PLC has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AstraZeneca PLC (AZN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $127.32 (as of Aug 30, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $72.51, optimistic scenario $172.84. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AstraZeneca PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $127.32, about −22% upside versus a price of $162.70 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $72.51, optimistic scenario $172.84. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AstraZeneca PLC (AZN)?
AstraZeneca PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $60.4B (latest available figure, as of Aug 30, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of AZN?
The net profit margin of AstraZeneca PLC is about 17.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 17.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does AstraZeneca PLC pay a dividend?
AstraZeneca PLC currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.97% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 30, 2026).
What growth is priced into AstraZeneca PLC (AZN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, AstraZeneca PLC would have to grow free cash flow by +9.3 % per year for ten years (discount rate 7.6 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.2 % per year. As of Aug 30, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AZN use?
Our models discount AstraZeneca PLC at 7.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.21, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
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