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Novonix Ltd (NVX) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Novonix Ltd stock A$0.11, price A$0.08, upside +34.9%, quality 26 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · AU · ISIN AU000000NVX4

NL Novonix Ltd logo Thin data Oct 22, 2026

Novonix Ltd

NVX · AU

SpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.

The stock costs 26% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value A$0.1052 · Undervalued (+34.9%)
Low debt
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +2.1 %/yr in USD)
Quality 26/100
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/8)
Narrow moat 8/100 · thin data
Thin data
⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$12.15 A$0.0750 Fair Value A$0.1052 Aug 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.0750 – A$12.15 · fair‑value band A$0.0797 – A$0.1498 · the A$0.0780 price screens below the A$0.1052 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.

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Company profile

NOVONIX Limited, a battery technology and materials company, provides products and mission critical services in North America, Asia, Australia, and Europe. It operates through Battery Materials, Battery Technology, and Graphite Exploration segments.

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The company develops and manufactures battery anode materials and battery cell testing equipment; performs consulting services; and carries out research and development in battery development.

It also manages, maintenance, and develops Mount Dromedary natural graphite deposit located in Northern Queensland, Australia. In addition, the company is involved in investment and management, and real estate borrowing activities, as well as battery technology activities.

It serves battery manufacturers, materials companies, automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), and consumer electronics manufacturers. The company was formerly known as Graphitecorp Limited and changed its name to NOVONIX Limited in July 2017.

NOVONIX Limited was incorporated in 2012 and is based in Brisbane, Australia.

Stock analysis

Novonix Ltd (NVX) currently trades at A$0.0780, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.1052, implying the stock looks roughly 25.9% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0797 (bear) to A$0.1498 (bull), the price of A$0.0780 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 26/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Novonix Ltd reported revenue of $5.8M in FY2025 versus $6.1M in FY2021, a compound −1.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$96.0M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$77.8M (≈ $54.6M) Micro · P/S ratio 16.7 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.2000 · Return on equity −65.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −18.0% · Operating margin −926% · Revenue (TTM) $5.6M · Revenue growth (YoY) −10.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 8 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 89% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at 35%, NVX screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0797 Fair Value A$0.1052 Bull A$0.1498
Price A$0.0780 · Upside +34.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) A$0.1000 A$0.1400 A$0.2100 53
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.1000 A$0.1400 A$0.2100 53

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 26/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 41
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 63
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 63
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 37
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum 0
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 0
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +75.7% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+75.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−215.2% (2020) → −929.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electrical Equipment & Parts · 554 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 26 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +34.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −33.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −10.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.20× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Electrical Equipment & Parts median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.35× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months) 9.71× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)80 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 57
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)90 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 23

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Electrical Equipment & Parts stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co 300750 ¥267.02 ¥648.35 +143% vs NVX
NARI Technology Co 600406 ¥22.74 ¥29.39 +29% vs NVX
Vertiv Holdings VRT $212.15 $178.68 −16% vs NVX
Prysmian S.p.A PRY €108.35 €75.63 −30% vs NVX
Hubbell Incorporated HUBB $460.76 $295.64 −36% vs NVX
Legrand SA LR €131.30 €83.20 −37% vs NVX
LG Energy Solution, Ltd 373220 371,000 KRW 201,455 KRW −46% vs NVX
ABB Ltd ABBN CHF 70.96 CHF 29.77 −58% vs NVX
nVent Electric plc NVT $146.13 $43.61 −70% vs NVX
Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company DELTA 239.00 THB 39.14 THB −84% vs NVX

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Novonix Ltd · Fair Value
A$0.1052 +26%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Novonix Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NVX

Frequently asked questions

Is Novonix Ltd (NVX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.1052 versus a price of A$0.0780, about +35% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NVX?
Our model-based fair value for Novonix Ltd is A$0.1052 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0780.
What is the quality score of NVX?
Novonix Ltd has a Quality Score of 26/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Novonix Ltd (NVX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.1052 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0797, optimistic scenario A$0.1498. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Novonix Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.1052, about +35% upside versus a price of A$0.0780 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0797, optimistic scenario A$0.1498. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Novonix Ltd (NVX)?
Novonix Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.6M (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Novonix Ltd (NVX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Novonix Ltd it is A$0.1052 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of A$0.0780. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Novonix Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, NVX trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.0780, fair value A$0.1052, a gap of about +35% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NVX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0780); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.1052). For Novonix Ltd the two are A$0.0272 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Novonix Ltd worth?
The market values Novonix Ltd at about A$77.8M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0780; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.1052 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NVX?
Our models span a range for Novonix Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0797, base A$0.1052, optimistic A$0.1498 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price A$0.0780). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Novonix Ltd (NVX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Novonix Ltd (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity −65.6%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 26/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NVX from its 52-week high?
Novonix Ltd trades at A$0.0780, about 89% below its 52-week high of A$0.7400 and 4% above the low of A$0.0750 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.1052 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Novonix Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Contemporary Amperex Technology Co, ABB Ltd, Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company, Vertiv Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Novonix Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price A$0.0780, calculated fair value A$0.1052 (+35%), Quality Score 26/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NVX calculated?
We run Novonix Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.1052, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Novonix Ltd currently trades 26 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Novonix Ltd (NVX)?
The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was A$0.0780. Our model-based fair value is A$0.1052, about +35% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Novonix Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (26/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$0.0797). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (A$0.0797 to A$0.1498) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Novonix Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Novonix Ltd (NVX)?
The market capitalisation of Novonix Ltd is A$77.8M (≈ $54.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Novonix Ltd (NVX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Novonix Ltd is 16.7 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Novonix Ltd (NVX)?
Earnings per share at Novonix Ltd are A$−0.2000. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Novonix Ltd (NVX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Novonix Ltd is −65.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Novonix Ltd (NVX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Novonix Ltd is −18.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Novonix Ltd (NVX)?
The operating margin of Novonix Ltd is −926% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Novonix Ltd (NVX)?
Revenue at Novonix Ltd is growing −10.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Novonix Ltd (NVX) generate?
The free cash flow of Novonix Ltd is −$106M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Novonix Ltd (NVX) carry?
The net debt of Novonix Ltd is $26.6M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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