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Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A (NWRN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A CHF 20.32, price CHF 8.12, upside +150.3%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A
NWRN · SWCheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.
✓Fair value CHF 20.32 · Strongly undervalued (+150.3%)
!Quality 46/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +29.5 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -69.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Negative equity (buybacks among others) · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 13/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 1.10 – CHF 30.40 · fair‑value band CHF 13.19 – CHF 22.50 · the CHF 8.12 price screens below the CHF 20.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A., a biopharmaceutical company, discovers and develops novel therapies for patients with diseases of the central and peripheral nervous system in Italy and the United States.
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Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A., a biopharmaceutical company, discovers and develops novel therapies for patients with diseases of the central and peripheral nervous system in Italy and the United States. It offers Xadago (safinamide), a chemical entity for the treatment of Parkinson's in the European Union, the United Kingdom, the United States, Latin America, Switzerland, and Japan. The company's lead compound includes Evenamide, an add-on therapy for the treatment of Schizophrenia and treatment-resistant schizophrenia, which is in Phase III clinical trial; and Ralfinamide for the treatment of rare neuropathic pain indication. It has a strategic partnership with Zambon and Meiji Seika Pharma Co., Ltd. for the commercialization of safinamide. Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Bresso, Italy.
Stock analysis
Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A (NWRN) currently trades at CHF 8.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 20.32, implying the stock looks roughly 60.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of CHF 29.47 per share, and 4 of the 5 models we run sit above the CHF 8.12 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at CHF 3.12, and 1 of the 5 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: CHF 13.19 (bear) to CHF 22.50 (bull), the price of CHF 8.12 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A reported revenue of €19.1M in FY2025 versus €5.8M in FY2021, a compound +35.0%/yr. Reported net income was −€13.3M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap CHF 241M · P/S ratio 12.6 · EPS (TTM) CHF −0.6100 · Net margin −69.7% · Return on equity −840% · Return on assets (EBIT) −15.2% · Operating margin −83.6% · Revenue (TTM) €19.1M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 73% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 150%, NWRN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear CHF 13.19
Fair Value CHF 20.32
Bull CHF 22.50
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
CHF 19.67
CHF 27.35
CHF 49.77
76
Growth DCF
CHF 18.46
CHF 29.47
CHF 46.66
75
5Y Revenue Exit
CHF 8.58
CHF 11.02
CHF 15.85
71
All 5 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
CHF 19.67
CHF 27.35
CHF 49.77
76
5Y Revenue Exit
CHF 8.58
CHF 11.02
CHF 15.85
71
10Y Revenue Exit
CHF 12.63
CHF 19.32
CHF 21.35
66
Multiples
EV/Revenue
CHF 2.34
CHF 3.12
CHF 3.89
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
CHF 18.46
CHF 29.47
CHF 46.66
75
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
46/100
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 21
Profitability
29
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
10
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
48
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
41
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
18
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
4
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
24
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
53/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−62.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+46.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +23.2% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.7%
’14
’15
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’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−343.6% (2020) → −24.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−10.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+144.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −11.9% a year for the price and +139.3% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−43.3%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+313.4%
Projected 2028 (sales)+274.5%
Projected 2029 (sales)+235.6%
Projected 2030 (sales)+196.7%
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Context: sector, industry, market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
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|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $527.67 | $580.44 | +10% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $752.25 | $1,275 | +69% |
| argenx SE ARGX | $959.49 | $918.60 | −4% |
| CSL Limited CSL | A$175.35 | A$192.89 | +10% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,354,000 KRW | 1,489,400 KRW | +10% |
| BeOne Medicines AG ONC | $360.85 | $280.94 | −22% |
| Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY | $255.96 | $217.88 | −15% |
| Royalty Pharma plc RPRX | $58.21 | $19.01 | −67% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 177,400 KRW | 74,519 KRW | −58% |
| WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 | HK$53.00 | HK$58.30 | +10% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A (NWRN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of CHF 20.32 versus a price of CHF 8.12, about +150% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NWRN?
Our model-based fair value for Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A is CHF 20.32 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: CHF 8.12.
What is the quality score of NWRN?
Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A (NWRN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of CHF 20.32 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 5 valuation models. Cautious scenario CHF 13.19, optimistic scenario CHF 22.50. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at CHF 20.32, about +150% upside versus a price of CHF 8.12 (undervalued). Cautious scenario CHF 13.19, optimistic scenario CHF 22.50. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A (NWRN)?
Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €19.1M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A (NWRN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A would have to grow free cash flow by -10.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +29.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NWRN use?
Our models discount Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A at 11.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.74, country premium for Switzerland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A that is -10.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A (NWRN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A grew +29.5 % a year. The price currently implies -10.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A (NWRN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A (-10.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A (NWRN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 18.71 %: that much free cash flow Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A (NWRN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A it is CHF 20.32 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of CHF 8.12. It is the blended result of 5 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, NWRN trades below its calculated fair value: price CHF 8.12, fair value CHF 20.32, a gap of about +150% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NWRN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (CHF 8.12); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (CHF 20.32). For Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A the two are CHF 12.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A worth?
The market values Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A at about CHF 241M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is CHF 8.12; our models calculate a fair value of CHF 20.32 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NWRN?
Our models span a range for Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A: cautious scenario CHF 13.19, base CHF 20.32, optimistic CHF 22.50 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price CHF 8.12). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is NWRN from its 52-week high?
Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A trades at CHF 8.12, about 73% below its 52-week high of CHF 30.40 and 7% above the low of CHF 7.62 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of CHF 20.32 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, CSL Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price CHF 8.12, calculated fair value CHF 20.32 (+150%), Quality Score 46/100, from 5 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NWRN calculated?
We run Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A through 5 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of CHF 20.32, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A currently trades 60 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A (NWRN)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was CHF 8.12. Our model-based fair value is CHF 20.32, about +150% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (CHF 13.19). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A (NWRN)?
The market capitalisation of Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A is CHF 241M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A (NWRN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A is 12.6 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A (NWRN)?
Earnings per share at Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A are CHF −0.6100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A (NWRN)?
The net margin of Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A is −69.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A (NWRN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A is −840% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A (NWRN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A is −15.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A (NWRN)?
The operating margin of Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A is −83.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A (NWRN)?
Revenue at Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A is growing −84.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +46.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A (NWRN) carry?
The net debt of Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A is €26.0M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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