Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (OBAMS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. TRY 1.78, price TRY 4.46, upside -60.1%, quality 39 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
31‑month range 4.25 TRY – 14.24 TRY · fair‑value band 1.72 TRY – 1.98 TRY · the 4.46 TRY price screens above the 1.78 TRY fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. produces and sells pasta in Turkey and internationally. The company offers children pasta, mac and cheese, noodles, flour, and semolina products. It sells its products under the OBA Makarna, OBA Mie, OBA Gold, Obalino, Nido, Eva, Omelia, Pasta Layla, Pasta Savana, Vera, Rosa Linda, and Nido brands.
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Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. produces and sells pasta in Turkey and internationally. The company offers children pasta, mac and cheese, noodles, flour, and semolina products. It sells its products under the OBA Makarna, OBA Mie, OBA Gold, Obalino, Nido, Eva, Omelia, Pasta Layla, Pasta Savana, Vera, Rosa Linda, and Nido brands. The company was formerly known as Türsan Kollektif Sirketi Selahattin Öztahtaci, Abdullah Incetahtaci, Adil Ceydeli and changed its name to Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. in December 1988. The company was incorporated in 1966 and is headquartered in Gaziantep, Turkey. Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. operates as a subsidiary of Alpinvest Yatirim Gida Sanayi ve Ticaret AS.
Stock analysis
Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (OBAMS) currently trades at 4.46 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1.78 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 150.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 2.88 TRY per share, and 0 of the 9 models we run sit above the 4.46 TRY price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 2.24 TRY, and 9 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 1.72 TRY (bear) to 1.98 TRY (bull), the price of 4.46 TRY sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. reported revenue of 22.8B TRY in FY2025 versus 5.2B TRY in FY2021, a compound +44.6%/yr. Reported net income was −2.0B TRY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 12.8B TRY (≈ $262M) · P/S ratio 0.60 · EPS (TTM) −1.11 TRY · Net margin −9.0% · Return on equity −29.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.5% · Operating margin 2.3% · Revenue (TTM) 22.8B TRY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at −60%, OBAMS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 1.72 TRYFair Value 1.78 TRYBull 1.98 TRY
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+49.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
6.4% (2020) → −0.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+50.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Turkey: IMF forecast 19.3% a year to 2030, 28.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +26.1% a year for the price.
Compare Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 661 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−60.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−1.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−14.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)2.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/S (TTM)0.01× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF1.3× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)5· sector 19
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 58
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OBAMS
Frequently asked questions
Is Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (OBAMS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 1.78 TRY versus a price of 4.46 TRY, about −60% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OBAMS?
Our model-based fair value for Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. is 1.78 TRY (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 4.46 TRY.
What is the quality score of OBAMS?
Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (OBAMS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 1.78 TRY (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario 1.72 TRY, optimistic scenario 1.98 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 1.78 TRY, about −60% upside versus a price of 4.46 TRY (overvalued). Cautious scenario 1.72 TRY, optimistic scenario 1.98 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (OBAMS)?
Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 22.8B TRY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (OBAMS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. would have to grow free cash flow by +50.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 17.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +49.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OBAMS use?
Our models discount Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. at 17.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. that is +50.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (17.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (OBAMS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. grew +49.0 % a year. The price currently implies +50.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (OBAMS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (+50.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (OBAMS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.62 %: that much free cash flow Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (17.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (OBAMS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. it is 1.78 TRY per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 4.46 TRY. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, OBAMS trades above its calculated fair value: price 4.46 TRY, fair value 1.78 TRY, a gap of about −60% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OBAMS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (4.46 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (1.78 TRY). For Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. the two are 2.68 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. worth?
The market values Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. at about 12.8B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 4.46 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 1.78 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OBAMS?
Our models span a range for Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S.: cautious scenario 1.72 TRY, base 1.78 TRY, optimistic 1.98 TRY per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 4.46 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (OBAMS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −29.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OBAMS from its 52-week high?
Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. trades at 4.46 TRY, about 52% below its 52-week high of 9.20 TRY and 5% above the low of 4.25 TRY (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 1.78 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S.?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 4.46 TRY, calculated fair value 1.78 TRY (−60%), Quality Score 39/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OBAMS calculated?
We run Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 1.78 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (OBAMS)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was 4.46 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 1.78 TRY, about −60% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (1.98 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S.
How large is the market capitalisation of Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (OBAMS)?
The market capitalisation of Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. is 12.8B TRY (≈ $262M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (OBAMS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. is 0.60 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (OBAMS)?
Earnings per share at Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. are −1.11 TRY. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (OBAMS)?
The net margin of Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. is −9.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (OBAMS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. is −29.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (OBAMS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. is 9.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (OBAMS)?
The operating margin of Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. is 2.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (OBAMS)?
Revenue at Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. is growing +0.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (OBAMS)?
Earnings per share at Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. are growing −40.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (OBAMS) carry?
The net debt of Oba Makarnacilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. is 512M TRY (fiscal year 2023, ≈ 2.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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