Orange Belgium S.A (OBEL) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · BE · Market cap €1.5B
Fair value as of: Aug 6, 2026
From 20 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price +2.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 54% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€13.29). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (30/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €12.40 – €22.20 · fair‑value band €10.11 – €13.29 · the €22.00 price screens above the €10.18 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.
Analysis
Orange Belgium S.A (OBEL) currently trades at €22.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €10.18, implying the stock looks roughly 53.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Orange Belgium S.A generated revenue of €2.0B at a net margin of 2.1%. Revenue declined 1.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.2%. Net debt stands at €2.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 6, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €10.11 (bear case) to €13.29 (bull case); at €22.00, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 32% fair-value upside, at -54%, OBEL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 20 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (€10.42) versus Dividend Discount (€0.0500). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 32 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 72
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Orange Belgium S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides telecommunication services in Belgium and Luxembourg. It offers mobile telecommunications, internet, and television services to residential clients, as well as mobile and fixed line services to businesses and corporates. The company was incorporated in 1995 and is based in Brussels, Belgium.
Full company description
Orange Belgium S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides telecommunication services in Belgium and Luxembourg. It offers mobile telecommunications, internet, and television services to residential clients, as well as mobile and fixed line services to businesses and corporates. The company was incorporated in 1995 and is based in Brussels, Belgium. Orange Belgium S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Atlas Services Belgium S.A.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Orange Belgium S.A reported revenue of €2.0B in FY2025 versus €1.3B in FY2021, a compound +10.3%/yr. Reported net income was €41.3M in FY2025, compounding +1.0%/yr from FY2021.
OBEL screens 54% overvalued. Compare with China Mobile Limited →
Peer Group
Telecom Services · 252 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Telecom Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Telecom Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 6, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Mobile Limited 600941 | ¥89.98 | ¥109.88 | +22% |
| T-Mobile US, Inc TMUS | $187.61 | $172.67 | -8% |
| Bharti Airtel Limited BHARTIARTL | ₹1,922 | ₹941.55 | -51% |
| China Telecom Corporation 601728 | ¥6.01 | ¥8.36 | +39% |
| América Móvil, S.A. AMXB | 23.07 MXN | 30.35 MXN | +32% |
| Vodafone Group VODN | 259.50 MXN | 507.27 MXN | +95% |
| Advanced Info Service Public Company ADVANC | 379.00 THB | 286.77 THB | -24% |
| Chunghwa Telecom Co 2412 | 133.50 TWD | 100.00 TWD | -25% |
| China Unicom (Hong Kong) Limited 0762 | HK$6.50 | HK$13.03 | +100% |
| Telefónica, S.A TEFN | 75.67 MXN | 111.01 MXN | +47% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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