Orange Belgium SA (OBEL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Orange Belgium SA €10.48, price €22.30, upside -53.0%, quality 30 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €12.40 – €22.30 · fair‑value band €10.11 – €13.29 · the €22.30 price screens above the €10.48 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Orange Belgium S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides telecommunication services in Belgium and Luxembourg. It offers mobile telecommunications, internet, and television services to residential clients, as well as mobile and fixed line services to businesses and corporates. The company was incorporated in 1995 and is based in Brussels, Belgium.
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Orange Belgium S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides telecommunication services in Belgium and Luxembourg. It offers mobile telecommunications, internet, and television services to residential clients, as well as mobile and fixed line services to businesses and corporates. The company was incorporated in 1995 and is based in Brussels, Belgium. Orange Belgium S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Atlas Services Belgium S.A.
Stock analysis
Orange Belgium SA (OBEL) currently trades at €22.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €10.48, implying the stock looks roughly 112.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €10.97 per share, and 3 of the 19 models we run sit above the €22.30 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €6.75, and 16 of the 19 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €10.11 (bear) to €13.29 (bull), the price of €22.30 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Orange Belgium SA reported revenue of €2.0B in FY2025 versus €1.3B in FY2021, a compound +10.3%/yr. Reported net income was €41.3M in FY2025, compounding +1.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €1.5B · P/E ratio 36.6 · P/S ratio 0.77 · EPS (TTM) €0.6100 · Net margin 2.1% · Return on equity 5.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.3% · Operating margin 9.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 47% fair-value upside, at −53%, OBEL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €10.11Fair Value €10.48Bull €13.29
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.4462 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.61/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.7% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
−14.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−14.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−2% vs −7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 8%
2025 sits 79% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.2% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Telecom Services · 252 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−53% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6% · Below median
Return on assets3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.68× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Telecom Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)36.6× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.70× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)0.87× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF11.8× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA5.6× · Cheaper than median
PEG27.88× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 35
FUTURE (revenue growth)2· sector 16
PAST (return on equity)23· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)16· sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 77
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Orange Belgium SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OBEL
Frequently asked questions
Is Orange Belgium SA (OBEL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €10.48 versus a price of €22.30, about −53% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OBEL?
Our model-based fair value for Orange Belgium SA is €10.48 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €22.30.
What is the quality score of OBEL?
Orange Belgium SA has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Orange Belgium SA (OBEL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €10.48 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 20 valuation models. Cautious scenario €10.11, optimistic scenario €13.29. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Orange Belgium SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €10.48, about −53% upside versus a price of €22.30 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €10.11, optimistic scenario €13.29. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Orange Belgium SA (OBEL)?
Orange Belgium SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €2.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Orange Belgium SA (OBEL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Orange Belgium SA would have to grow free cash flow by +13.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OBEL use?
Our models discount Orange Belgium SA at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.20, country premium for Belgium. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Orange Belgium SA that is +13.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Orange Belgium SA (OBEL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Orange Belgium SA grew +8.9 % a year. The price currently implies +13.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Orange Belgium SA (OBEL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Orange Belgium SA (+13.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Orange Belgium SA (OBEL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.61 %: that much free cash flow Orange Belgium SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Orange Belgium SA (OBEL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Orange Belgium SA it is €10.48 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of €22.30. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Orange Belgium SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, OBEL trades above its calculated fair value: price €22.30, fair value €10.48, a gap of about −53% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OBEL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€22.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€10.48). For Orange Belgium SA the two are €11.82 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Orange Belgium SA worth?
The market values Orange Belgium SA at about €1.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is €22.30; our models calculate a fair value of €10.48 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OBEL?
Our models span a range for Orange Belgium SA: cautious scenario €10.11, base €10.48, optimistic €13.29 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price €22.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OBEL?
Orange Belgium SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 36.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €10.48 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 27.9, P/B 1.7, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 5.6.
What is the PEG ratio of OBEL?
The PEG ratio of Orange Belgium SA is 27.88 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Orange Belgium SA (OBEL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Orange Belgium SA (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 5.7%, debt of 1.68 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 30/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OBEL from its 52-week high?
Orange Belgium SA trades at €22.30, at its 52-week high of €22.30 and 20% above the low of €18.65 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €10.48 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Orange Belgium SA?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value China Mobile Limited, T-Mobile US, Inc, Verizon Communications Inc, AT&T Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Orange Belgium SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price €22.30, calculated fair value €10.48 (−53%), Quality Score 30/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OBEL calculated?
We run Orange Belgium SA through 20 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €10.48, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Orange Belgium SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Orange Belgium SA (OBEL)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was €22.30. Our model-based fair value is €10.48, about −53% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Orange Belgium SA right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€13.29). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (30/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Key figures of Orange Belgium SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Orange Belgium SA (OBEL)?
The market capitalisation of Orange Belgium SA is €1.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Orange Belgium SA (OBEL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Orange Belgium SA is 0.77 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Orange Belgium SA (OBEL)?
Earnings per share at Orange Belgium SA are €0.6100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 36.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Orange Belgium SA (OBEL)?
The net margin of Orange Belgium SA is 2.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Orange Belgium SA (OBEL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Orange Belgium SA is 5.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Orange Belgium SA (OBEL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Orange Belgium SA is 3.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Orange Belgium SA (OBEL)?
The operating margin of Orange Belgium SA is 9.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Orange Belgium SA (OBEL)?
Revenue at Orange Belgium SA is growing +0.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Orange Belgium SA (OBEL)?
Earnings per share at Orange Belgium SA are growing +601% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Orange Belgium SA (OBEL) carry?
The net debt of Orange Belgium SA is €2.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 15.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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