Telefónica, S.A (TEFN) Fair Value & Analysis

Communication Services · MX · Market cap 430B MXN

Below-average quality, screening 47% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price is below even our cautious bear case (82.13 MXN). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
• Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 49.70 MXN – 93.65 MXN · fair‑value band 82.13 MXN – 139.90 MXN · the 75.67 MXN price screens below the 111.01 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.

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Analysis

Telefónica, S.A (TEFN) currently trades at 75.67 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 111.01 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 46.7% undervalued today. We read business quality at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Telefónica, S.A generated revenue of 35.9B MXN at a net margin of -9.5%. Revenue declined 12.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -8.9%. Net debt stands at 25.5B MXN. Fundamentals as of Jul 20, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 82.13 MXN (bear case) to 139.90 MXN (bull case); at 75.67 MXN, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 32% fair-value upside, at 47%, TEFN screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: DCF Models (341.76 MXN) versus Asset-Based (70.26 MXN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Telefónica, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides telecommunications services in Europe and Latin America. The company offers mobile and related services and products, including mobile voice, value added, mobile data and internet, wholesale, corporate, roaming, fixed wireless, and trunking and paging services; traditional fixed telecommunication …

Full company description

Telefónica, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides telecommunications services in Europe and Latin America. The company offers mobile and related services and products, including mobile voice, value added, mobile data and internet, wholesale, corporate, roaming, fixed wireless, and trunking and paging services; traditional fixed telecommunication services, such as PSTN lines; ISDN accesses; public telephone services; local, domestic, and international long-distance and fixed-to-mobile communications; corporate communications; supplementary value-added services; video telephony; intelligent network; telephony information services; and leases and sells handset equipment. It also provides internet provider service; portal and network, retail and wholesale broadband access, narrowband switched access and other technologies, internet through fibre to the home, very high bit-rate digital subscriber line, and voice over internet protocol services; leased line, virtual private network, fibre optics, web and managed hosting, content delivery and application, security, and outsourcing and consultancy services, including network management or CGP; and desktop, system integration, and professional services. In addition, the company offers wholesale services for telecommunication operators, such as domestic interconnection and international wholesale services; leased lines for other operators; and local loop leasing services, as well as bit stream services, wholesale line rental accesses, and leased ducts for other operators' fiber deployment. Further, it provides video/TV services; smart connectivity and services; financial and other payment, cloud, security, advertising, and big data services; digital products; Aura, an artificial-intelligence ecosystem; Movistar Home device; open gateway; living apps; smart Wi-Fi; NT; Solar 360; and Phoenix, a digital sales platform. Telefónica, S.A. was incorporated in 1924 and is headquartered in Madrid, Spain.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Telefónica, S.A reported revenue of 35.1B MXN in FY2025 versus 39.3B MXN in FY2021, a compound −2.8%/yr. Reported net income was −4.3B MXN in FY2025.

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Peer Group

Telecom Services · 252 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Telecom Services median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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10 more Telecom Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 20, 2026).

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.