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Data-driven stock valuation

Telefónica S.A (TEFN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Telefónica S.A is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Communication Services · MX · Market cap 430B MXN (≈ $25.5B) · ISIN US8793822086

At a glance

TS Telefónica S.A TEFN · MX
Price from Jul 16, 202675.67 MXN
Fair Value108.96 MXN
Upside+44.0%
Quality46/100

Below-average quality, trading 31% below our fair value of 108.96 MXN.

As of Aug 13, 2026, the fair value of Telefónica S.A is 108.96 MXN per share against a price of 75.67 MXN, so the fair value sits 44% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y −4.0 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -9.5% net margin
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (5/14)
!Narrow moat 27/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on balance sheet: 1 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 9 out of 100
Evidence: Medium Range 80.47 MXN to 137.33 MXN

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 13 valuation models · updated 24 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 111.01 MXN to 108.96 MXN (−1.8%) since Jul 20, 2026. Share price +0.2% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (80.47 MXN). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

93.65 MXN 49.70 MXN Fair Value 108.96 MXN Apr 2021 Jul 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 49.70 MXN – 93.65 MXN · fair‑value band 80.47 MXN – 137.33 MXN · the 75.67 MXN price screens below the 108.96 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Telefónica S.A (TEFN) currently trades at 75.67 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 108.96 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 30.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 459.31 MXN per share, and 12 of the 13 models we run sit above the 75.67 MXN price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 94.43 MXN, and 1 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Telefónica S.A generated revenue of 35.9B MXN at a net margin of −9.5%. Revenue declined 12.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −8.9%. Net debt stands at 25.5B MXN. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Scenario range: 80.47 MXN (bear) to 137.33 MXN (bull), the price of 75.67 MXN sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 29% fair-value upside, at 44%, TEFN screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF 259.27 MXN 459.31 MXN 844.86 MXN 77
Growth DCF 283.30 MXN 479.42 MXN 828.65 MXN 76
5Y EBITDA Exit 417.40 MXN 762.72 MXN 1,221 MXN 73
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 259.27 MXN 459.31 MXN 844.86 MXN 77
5Y Revenue Exit 67.61 MXN 157.01 MXN 286.65 MXN 69
5Y EBITDA Exit 417.40 MXN 762.72 MXN 1,221 MXN 73
10Y Revenue Exit 131.31 MXN 205.63 MXN 281.62 MXN 67
10Y EBITDA Exit 353.70 MXN 588.94 MXN 843.18 MXN 68
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 177.13 MXN 194.45 MXN 221.83 MXN 69
DDM Multi-Stage 177.13 MXN 225.74 MXN 296.71 MXN 67
Multiples
EV/EBIT 27.94 MXN 108.96 MXN 189.42 MXN 59
EV/EBITDA 633.09 MXN 915.26 MXN 1,197 MXN 67
EV/Revenue n/a 48.61 MXN 126.84 MXN 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 70.40 MXN 94.43 MXN 141.37 MXN 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 283.30 MXN 479.42 MXN 828.65 MXN 76
Rev-Margin DCF 67.61 MXN 167.63 MXN 295.03 MXN 69

Widest divergence: DCF Models (459.31 MXN) versus Asset-Based (94.43 MXN). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).

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Key figures & financial health

P/S ratio 12.0 TTM
EPS (TTM) −3.94 MXN
Dividend yield 0.4%
Net margin −12.3% FY2025
Return on equity −8.9% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) 3.2% avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin 13.3% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) 35.9B MXN TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −12.4% 3y avg −4.2%
EPS growth (YoY) +26.6%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow 4.7B MXN FY2025
Net debt 25.5B MXN FY2025 · ≈ 5.5 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48

Profitability 14
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 24
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 66
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 28
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 77
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 92
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 36
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 19
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 86
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Telefónica, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides telecommunications services in Europe and Latin America. The company offers mobile and related services and products, including mobile voice, value added, mobile data and internet, wholesale, corporate, roaming, fixed wireless, and trunking and paging services; traditional fixed telecommunication …

Full company description

Telefónica, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides telecommunications services in Europe and Latin America. The company offers mobile and related services and products, including mobile voice, value added, mobile data and internet, wholesale, corporate, roaming, fixed wireless, and trunking and paging services; traditional fixed telecommunication services, such as PSTN lines; ISDN accesses; public telephone services; local, domestic, and international long-distance and fixed-to-mobile communications; corporate communications; supplementary value-added services; video telephony; intelligent network; telephony information services; and leases and sells handset equipment. It also provides internet provider service; portal and network, retail and wholesale broadband access, narrowband switched access and other technologies, internet through fibre to the home, very high bit-rate digital subscriber line, and voice over internet protocol services; leased line, virtual private network, fibre optics, web and managed hosting, content delivery and application, security, and outsourcing and consultancy services, including network management or CGP; and desktop, system integration, and professional services. In addition, the company offers wholesale services for telecommunication operators, such as domestic interconnection and international wholesale services; leased lines for other operators; and local loop leasing services, as well as bit stream services, wholesale line rental accesses, and leased ducts for other operators' fiber deployment. Further, it provides video/TV services; smart connectivity and services; financial and other payment, cloud, security, advertising, and big data services; digital products; Aura, an artificial-intelligence ecosystem; Movistar Home device; open gateway; living apps; smart Wi-Fi; NT; Solar 360; and Phoenix, a digital sales platform. Telefónica, S.A. was incorporated in 1924 and is headquartered in Madrid, Spain.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Telefónica S.A reported revenue of €35.1B in FY2025 versus €39.3B in FY2021, a compound −2.8%/yr. Reported net income was −€4.3B in FY2025.

Growth Quality 55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
35.1B MXN
Latest YoY
−1.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−4.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−4.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (12Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−3.1%
EBIT margin (trend) Operating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
11.0% (2020) → 5.8% (2025)
Value creation/yr We only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Revenue −2.8%/yr
FY21 €39.3B
FY22 €40.0B
FY23 €40.7B
FY24 €35.7B
FY25 €35.1B
Net income
FY21 €8.1B
FY22 €2.0B
FY23 −€892M
FY24 −€49.0M
FY25 −€4.3B

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Telefónica S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TEFN

Peer Group

Telecom Services · 250 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 46 · Below median
Fair Value upside +141% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −10% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 13% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −12% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.97× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Telecom Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.79× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.71× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 5.5× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 6.7× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.36× · Cheapest 25%

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Telefónica S.A deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+24.5 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years-4.0 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+1.6 %
FCF yield on price1.09 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models7.9 %

The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 29
FUTURE0 · sector 16
PAST0 · sector 28
HEALTH1 · sector 89
DIVIDEND9 · sector 74

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Telecom Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
China Mobile Limited 600941 ¥96.11 ¥109.88 +14%
T-Mobile US, Inc TMUS $181.52 $172.67 −5%
Verizon Communications Inc VZ $50.14 $64.43 +29%
AT&T Inc T $26.01 $43.97 +69%
Bharti Airtel Limited BHARTIARTL ₹1,935 ₹941.48 −51%
Comcast Corporation CMCSA $26.49 $95.42 +260%
China Telecom Corporation 601728 ¥6.43 ¥8.36 +30%
América Móvil, S.A. AMX $23.00 $39.79 +73%
Singapore Telecommunications Limited Z77 4.53 SGD 3.03 SGD −33%
Swisscom AG SCMN CHF 627.50 CHF 463.92 −26%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Telefónica S.A (TEFN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 108.96 MXN versus the last price from Jul 16, 2026 of 75.67 MXN, about +44% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TEFN?
Our model-based fair value for Telefónica S.A is 108.96 MXN (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Jul 16, 2026): 75.67 MXN.
What is the quality score of TEFN?
Telefónica S.A has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Telefónica S.A (TEFN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 108.96 MXN (as of Aug 13, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario 80.47 MXN, optimistic scenario 137.33 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Telefónica S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 108.96 MXN, about +44% upside versus the last price from Jul 16, 2026 of 75.67 MXN (undervalued). Cautious scenario 80.47 MXN, optimistic scenario 137.33 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Telefónica S.A (TEFN)?
Telefónica S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 35.9B MXN (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of TEFN?
The net profit margin of Telefónica S.A is about −9.5%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Telefónica S.A pay a dividend?
Telefónica S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.43% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Telefónica S.A (TEFN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Telefónica S.A would have to grow free cash flow by +24.5 % per year for ten years (discount rate 7.9 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -4.0 % per year. As of Aug 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TEFN use?
Our models discount Telefónica S.A at 7.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.29. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
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