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Data-driven stock valuation

Vodafone Group (VODN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Vodafone Group is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Communication Services · MX · Market cap 598B MXN (≈ $35.4B) · ISIN US92857W3088

At a glance

VG Vodafone Group VODN · MX
Price from Jul 16, 2026259.50 MXN
Fair Value494.99 MXN
Upside+90.8%
Quality57/100

A solid business, trading 48% below our fair value of 494.99 MXN.

As of Aug 13, 2026, the fair value of Vodafone Group is 494.99 MXN per share against a price of 259.50 MXN, so the fair value sits 91% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −1.6 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -1.0% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 30/100
Evidence: High Range 300.46 MXN to 624.56 MXN

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated 24 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 507.27 MXN to 494.99 MXN (−2.4%) since Jul 19, 2026.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (300.46 MXN). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (300.46 MXN to 624.56 MXN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

283.21 MXN 125.22 MXN Fair Value 494.99 MXN Apr 2021 Jul 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 125.22 MXN – 283.21 MXN · fair‑value band 300.46 MXN – 624.56 MXN · the 259.50 MXN price screens below the 494.99 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Vodafone Group (VODN) currently trades at 259.50 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 494.99 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 47.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector. How firm this estimate is: it rests on 16 models at a data quality of 92/100, which puts the evidence level at high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Vodafone Group generated revenue of 40.5B MXN at a net margin of −1.0%. Revenue grew 7.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.1%. Net debt stands at 33.5B MXN. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Scenario range: 300.46 MXN (bear) to 624.56 MXN (bull), the price of 259.50 MXN sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 29% fair-value upside, at 91%, VODN screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely (3.99 MXN to 71.73 MXN). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF 18.46 MXN 31.39 MXN 56.63 MXN 77
Growth DCF 20.02 MXN 32.71 MXN 55.57 MXN 76
5Y EBITDA Exit 33.01 MXN 58.60 MXN 92.68 MXN 73
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 18.46 MXN 31.39 MXN 56.63 MXN 77
Owner Earnings 8.48 MXN 17.28 MXN 34.43 MXN 72
5Y Revenue Exit 7.38 MXN 14.37 MXN 24.55 MXN 70
5Y EBITDA Exit 33.01 MXN 58.60 MXN 92.68 MXN 73
10Y Revenue Exit 10.90 MXN 16.76 MXN 22.89 MXN 67
10Y EBITDA Exit 27.25 MXN 45.05 MXN 64.49 MXN 68
Earnings-Based
EPV 1.49 MXN 3.99 MXN 6.21 MXN 68
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 4.57 MXN 5.02 MXN 5.72 MXN 69
DDM Multi-Stage 4.57 MXN 5.89 MXN 7.76 MXN 67
Multiples
EV/EBIT 6.83 MXN 13.33 MXN 19.83 MXN 63
EV/EBITDA 50.63 MXN 71.73 MXN 92.83 MXN 67
EV/Revenue 2.11 MXN 8.45 MXN 14.79 MXN 49
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 10.99 MXN 14.73 MXN 21.99 MXN 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 20.02 MXN 32.71 MXN 55.57 MXN 76
Rev-Margin DCF 7.38 MXN 15.07 MXN 24.79 MXN 70
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder 1.49 MXN 3.99 MXN 6.21 MXN 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (17.28 MXN) versus Earnings-Based (3.99 MXN). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).

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Key figures & financial health

P/S ratio 15.1 TTM
EPS (TTM) −2.44 MXN
Dividend yield 0.0%
Net margin −1.0% FY2026
Return on equity 0.1% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) 4.4% avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin 7.8% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) 40.5B MXN TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +7.3% 3y avg −4.0%
EPS growth (YoY) −15.4%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow 7.0B MXN FY2026
Net debt 33.5B MXN FY2026 · ≈ 4.8 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 57/100

Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 79

Profitability 14
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 63
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 66
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 48
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 70
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 97
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 64
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 83
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Vodafone Group Public Limited Company provides telecommunication services in Germany, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, Turkey, and South Africa. It offers mobile and fixed services; connectivity business solutions, such as digital services, the Internet of Things (IoT) and financial services; and IoT platforms.

Full company description

Vodafone Group Public Limited Company provides telecommunication services in Germany, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, Turkey, and South Africa. It offers mobile and fixed services; connectivity business solutions, such as digital services, the Internet of Things (IoT) and financial services; and IoT platforms. The company also provides cloud, multi-cloud, and edge computing solutions; M-PESA, an African mobile money platform to make payments and offer financial services; and international voice and roaming services. In addition, it offers unified communications, mobile connectivity, IoT connectivity, cloud and edge, E2E solutions, and security services; leases fibre and other fixed connectivity services; and engages in infrastructure assets, shared operations, growth platforms, retail, and service operations. The company serves private and public sector customers in health, banking and finance, transport and logistics, retail, utilities, and agriculture industries. Vodafone Group Public Limited Company was incorporated in 1984 and is based in Newbury, the United Kingdom.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Vodafone Group reported revenue of €40.5B in FY2026 versus €45.6B in FY2022, a compound −2.9%/yr. Reported net income was −€397M in FY2026.

Growth Quality 24/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
40.5B MXN
Latest YoY
+8.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−4.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−1.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (13Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.5%
EBIT margin (trend) Operating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
12.4% (2021) → 9.3% (2026)
Value creation/yr We only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Revenue −2.9%/yr
FY22 €45.6B
FY23 €45.7B
FY24 €36.7B
FY25 €37.4B
FY26 €40.5B
Net income
FY22 €2.1B
FY23 €11.8B
FY24 €1.1B
FY25 −€4.2B
FY26 −€397M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Vodafone Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VODN

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Vodafone Group deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+56.8 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years-1.6 % p.a.
FCF yield on price0.12 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models7.9 %

The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Telecom Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
China Mobile Limited 600941 ¥96.11 ¥109.88 +14%
T-Mobile US, Inc TMUS $181.52 $172.67 −5%
Verizon Communications Inc VZ $50.14 $64.43 +29%
AT&T Inc T $26.01 $43.97 +69%
Bharti Airtel Limited BHARTIARTL ₹1,935 ₹941.48 −51%
Comcast Corporation CMCSA $26.49 $95.42 +260%
China Telecom Corporation 601728 ¥6.43 ¥8.36 +30%
América Móvil, S.A. AMX $23.00 $39.79 +73%
Singapore Telecommunications Limited Z77 4.53 SGD 3.03 SGD −33%
Swisscom AG SCMN CHF 627.50 CHF 463.92 −26%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Vodafone Group (VODN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 494.99 MXN versus the last price from Jul 16, 2026 of 259.50 MXN, about +91% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of VODN?
Our model-based fair value for Vodafone Group is 494.99 MXN (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Jul 16, 2026): 259.50 MXN.
What is the quality score of VODN?
Vodafone Group has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vodafone Group (VODN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 494.99 MXN (as of Aug 13, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario 300.46 MXN, optimistic scenario 624.56 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vodafone Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 494.99 MXN, about +91% upside versus the last price from Jul 16, 2026 of 259.50 MXN (undervalued). Cautious scenario 300.46 MXN, optimistic scenario 624.56 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vodafone Group (VODN)?
Vodafone Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 40.5B MXN (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of VODN?
The net profit margin of Vodafone Group is about −1.0%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Vodafone Group pay a dividend?
Vodafone Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.02% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Vodafone Group (VODN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Vodafone Group would have to grow free cash flow by +56.8 % per year for ten years (discount rate 7.9 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.6 % per year. As of Aug 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VODN use?
Our models discount Vodafone Group at 7.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.32. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
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